Will SWA keep the 717s?

[puddlejumper101]

give them to Delta, why not? Another fleet to keep their training costs nice and low (NOT). Slot swap with Delta, 717 for -800, same amount of airframes, Delta gets a DC-9 replacement and we get more -800s. That's a win win, and Airtran guys come to the 737 as the 717 leaves the property. (assuming SLI is done).

 

[400ADude]

Oh, he works for SWA alright, he's just a chicken-shizzle

I heard he works for UPS.

 

[Hose A. Jiminez]

The way he loads them up with ammo he obviously works for Air Tran.

 

[ATLplt]

The way he loads them up with ammo he obviously works for Air Tran.

I HIGHLY doubt it. He's probably just stirring the pot, because it's too easy to fire up either side at this point. A lot of the posts on any SWA/AirTran thread are by people not involved or pretending to be the other side's advocate. Sort through the BS, and know that one day we'll all put this behind us and worry about important things in life...like chicks, beer, and the size of the boat you brought to the cocktail cove of your choice. Get along folks. Some of us have 30+ more years of this ******************** together.

 

[texman]

I HIGHLY doubt it. He's probably just stirring the pot, because it's too easy to fire up either side at this point. A lot of the posts on any SWA/AirTran thread are by people not involved or pretending to be the other side's advocate. Sort through the BS, and know that one day we'll all put this behind us and worry about important things in life...like chicks, beer, and the size of the boat you brought to the cocktail cove of your choice. Get along folks. Some of us have 30+ more years of this ******************** together.

This is what I am talking about! Cocktail cove! My favorite is Devil's cove. Lake Travis, Austin Tejas Baby!

 

[SWA/CA]

Do you mean like the way that you and your repeated calls for a staple have energized our FO's, Milton?

Give me a break, your FOs are probably the most level headed over @ Tranny.

 

[Ty Webb]

Give me a break, your FOs are probably the most level headed over @ Tranny.

I could say the same for your Captains . . . most of 'em.

 

[waveflyer]

This is what I am talking about! Cocktail cove! My favorite is Devil's cove. Lake Travis, Austin Tejas Baby!

!!!!!

 

[Empennage]

I HIGHLY doubt it. He's probably just stirring the pot, because it's too easy to fire up either side at this point. A lot of the posts on any SWA/AirTran thread are by people not involved or pretending to be the other side's advocate. Sort through the BS, and know that one day we'll all put this behind us and worry about important things in life...like chicks, beer, and the size of the boat you brought to the cocktail cove of your choice. Get along folks. Some of us have 30+ more years of this ******************** together.

Wow. Professional and constructive.

Thank you atl

 

[Lear70]

give them to Delta, why not? Another fleet to keep their training costs nice and low (NOT). Slot swap with Delta, 717 for -800, same amount of airframes, Delta gets a DC-9 replacement and we get more -800s. That's a win win, and Airtran guys come to the 737 as the 717 leaves the property. (assuming SLI is done).

SLI will be long-done by the time that happens.

Even if a deal like that IS done (which is only mental masturbation at this point, just like SWA merger talk over the last 5 years until it actually happened), Delta's slots for 800's will take a while to develop into actual airframes that can be swapped.

So let's talk some realities (which isn't popular here, I know, but I'm going to do it anyway).

1. SWA can't just dump ALL our 717's to DAL all at once right now, even if they wanted to. You're talking tens of thousands of passengers in advance bookings for the rest of this year that would suddenly not have planes to get on. There's too many flights to redistribute to the rest of your fleet and our fleet of 737's combined. Just not going to happen, even if a deal could be brokered that fast (unlikely, considering how long SWA analyzes issues to make big changes).

2. AirTran's fragmentation language in Sec 1 is pretty vague, as is most fragmentation languages in most ALPA contracts. It says that IF a large portion of the aircraft are sold (no trigger point specifically by ASM's or hull percentages or hard numbers), that the company will make "all best efforts" to ensure the pilots go with them. Doesn't guarantee it.

3. Assuming that SWA did sell the 717's to DAL at a high enough pace to result in furloughs (unlikely) and in such a way that would require them to stay on the AAI seniority list (if the pilots didn't go with the planes), it would result in HUGE bumps in training down the entire seniority list and a LOT of training money costs. Can't just furlough the 717 drivers, our contract requires the company to allow displaced pilots from an airplane to bid whatever they can hold. That means all our 717 pilots would bid to the 737, resulting in at least 500 full training events at $25,000 a pop. $12 Mil plus is a good chunk of change and that's just a low WAG.

4. Snapshot. The SLI negotiations are based on a snapshot of 9/27/2010. A previous poster was mentioning that 717 furloughees would go to the bottom of the SLI list being furloughed. Not likely. The lists were exchanged using a 9/27 snapshot. If we can't work it out in negotiations or mediation, we'll be in arbitration in 5 months. Unlikely that a large enough number of hulls will depart leaving people furloughed in less than 5 months and once arbitration starts, not only will they have an agreed list as of the 9/27 snapshot, but the arbitration will have already started with those people on-property. They don't get rearranged on a daily basis in that process.

5. Probably the most important point that goes back to what I was saying in the beginning: this deal would be a hull swap. They get a 717 for every 737 DELIVERY that comes on property. I don't think that's a bad idea at all, whatever makes the most sense financially is great for the health of the company, but that's going to take a good amount of time. Even at 3 deliveries a month at MOST, you're talking 24-26 months to take all 88 planes? That's over 2 years, and you can't do a 2:1 swap - not enough seats to put your pre-booked passengers in. There likely aren't going to be large furloughs within the next 7 months which brings me to my last point.

6. In 7 months the SLI will be done, including arbitration with a combined ISL and an implementation date from the arbitrators. It's unlikely this deal would be done and a large number of planes would be gone by that time (assuming it happens at all). In that case, furloughs (if any, which again, I doubt, given that it's a planes-for-slots deal and you can't just give them all the planes at once stranding the passengers) would come from a COMBINED seniority list. Side Letter 8 is in effect until the ATN pilots are represented by SWAPA, but the Process Agreement says that any disputes to the SLI are paid for by SWA management. I'm certain ATN ALPA would dispute any one-sided furloughs AFTER an ISL is reached, during which time integration would still continue.

Again, I don't think any of this is a real threat. I expect that SWA is carefully analyzing the 717's right now; its costs, its profitability, its strengths, its weaknesses, and deciding if they want to get those extra 717's out in the desert and add to the fleet on the cheap (I'm sure the leases could be had for a song right now) or if they want to get rid of them in a swap with DAL for new 737-800's. I doubt that analysis will happen in just a few weeks or months.

I'm not concerned; I think it will be more of a factor to watch in a combined AAI/SWA in 2012/2013, not something done in the next month or two. Could be wrong though; it's happened before.