Why there's a good chance of a future pilot shortage

[motch]

Non-sequitur, you just said on one hand that the companies were forced to hire low-time pilots because they couldn't get anyone qualified to take the job, yet then said that wasn't a pilot shortage.

I'm sure the HR people trying to fill seats wouldn't agree with you when the big-wigs are telling them "We want 1,200 hours TT / 300 MEL" and they can't get but 1 or 2 out of 20 seats in every class with those times at those wages. To that employer, there's a pilot shortage.

Industry-wide? No. But at the Regional level, when that represents 30-50% of domestic pilot employment? That's substantial enough to be labeled a pilot shortage...

Case in point, that's what allowed me to get hired at a Regional as an off-the-street Captain, paid in training, single occupancy hotel, when that had never been done before at Pinnacle. Pilot shortage = better compensation.

Again, I never saw one company not have 100's if not thousands of resumes on hand.
Show me ONE company that said they couldn't fill seats in a class?!

If company A said they were having a hard time finding pilots, it was because THEY didn't have a compensation package comparable to the rest of the industry.
As an ex TSA pilot, I saw how my company had to pay for initial lodging because the competition was doing the same... they were having a hard time filling classes because young low time pilots were choosing the competition over TSA. At the same time, there were pilots on the street from TWA who were more than qualified but refused to work for such low wages.

As far as the HR department goes..
If they want 1200 TT/300 ME and are only getting 1-2 pilots in class, is it because there aren't any pilots out there with those mins, or is it because there aren't enough pilots willing to accept the job at that level of compensation?

I had one friend who interviewed at TSA and got turned down! Had more than the mins... he also interviewed at 2 other carriers and got on with both of them. Ended up at one of them.
Also have pilots in my Guard unit that had the mins for almost ALL regional carriers but couldn't/wouldn't take the job due to compensation/basing. But again, they were more than qualified and therefor do not represent a "pilot shortage".

You got hired as an off-the-street captain because of 2 reasons-
1) The company that hired you to do that determined that it was cheaper to hire you than lower the minimums while raising the insurance premiums for Captains!
2) The company that hired you was betting that they would get enough bodies (a couple of dozen?) to fill the seats at the low wages they were offering.

In both cases, they were able to save costs that went into their pockets (management) instead of paying an honest wage or taking care of their employees already on property.

The guys and gals who ran over to SkyBus thought that they were getting a good deal.. Captain seats even though they were at lower than industry wages, or FO's with quick upgrades.
Where are they now?
Do you think SkyBus had a pilot shortage?

The day that a flight cancels due to a carrier not having a qualified pilot to put into training, I'll believe there is a pilot shortage.
But when bottom feeders or new carriers who come into the market cry about a pilot shortage.. I'll just continue to shake my head and not buy into the hype!

always
Motch

PS> You got hired at Pinnacle as a street captain? What equipment and why?
GoJet was hiring Street Captains during my time at TSA too.. but it wasn't because of a "pilot shortage".. it was because of scumbag management.

 

[macdu]

I think the biggest thing that will prevent a pilot shortage in the future will be cabotage and outsourcing to foreign countries or ab-initio (sp?) programs where pilots are "selected" to fly for major carriers before they have ever flown an airplane - like Lufthansa. It is going to be interesting to see what this industry looks like in 30 years.[/QUOTE]

BINGO!

In China right now flying with the ab-initio pilots.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

For those of you who are too young, or not students of history, there have ALREADY been pilot shortages, and there will be in the future, until conditions change, and then there is a surplus. That is how earth works.

For example, when UAL (and eveyrone else) was recruiting in high schools, and hiring guys with a diploma and a Private Pilot's License, I would call that a shortage.

When the regionals were hiring guys WITHOUT a Commercial, or with a Commercial but less than 200 hours, I would call that a shortage.

cliff
NBO
PS-If I HAD gone to Skybus and gotten 500 hours there, I would have a much better job than the one I have now!

 

[pilotyip]

don't let Avbug hear that

Hi!

For those of you who are too young, or not students of history, there have ALREADY been pilot shortages, and there will be in the future, until conditions change, and then there is a surplus. That is how earth works.

For example, when UAL (and eveyrone else) was recruiting in high schools, and hiring guys with a diploma and a Private Pilot's License, I would call that a shortage.

When the regionals were hiring guys WITHOUT a Commercial, or with a Commercial but less than 200 hours, I would call that a shortage.

cliff
NBO
PS-If I HAD gone to Skybus and gotten 500 hours there, I would have a much better job than the one I have now!

Don’t let Avbug hear you say pilot shortage, he says there is never a pilot shortage. However there are hiring booms and as posted elsewhere it is already starting approach the maximum rate of change in 2012. BTW we heard the same stories about the airlines having 15,000 resume back in 1995; trouble is everyone had the same 15,000 resume, after a few years of hiring into 1997. They found that most of the resume already had other jobs. Which accelerated the hiring boom.</p>

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I wasn't talking about cabotage. I was talking about a U.S. Ab Initio program. The future, if the FAA ANPRM turns into a NPRM without changes and then is written into FAR's as-proposed, would look something like this:

Next 3-5 years, nothing changes, industry continues to slowly improve, ASM's are roughly flat across the board at most airlines, a few LCC's as notable exceptions (AAI, Allegiant), but the only real hiring occurs for attrition from age 65 as it starts to come into focus.

Next 2-3 years, aviation up-swing, the Majors finally have to start picking people up in a major way, AA's retirements hit hard, lots of recalls, we basically get all the guys and gals on the streets back into cockpits, then we start to go through the high-time Regional Captains as they get picked up at the Majors.

The Regionals start to upgrade again, and go to hire F/O's to replace the upgrading pilots. The pilots from some of the 3rd tier freight operators, charter operators, higher-time CFI's that have been hanging out instructing for years, etc finally get a Regional slot, and the 3rd tier freight operators upgrade THEIR F/O's, then look to replace them and find...

Not a whole lot of anything to replace them with. This will be the first signal that there's an impending "pilot shortage".

Then another 3-5 years of not much hiring, normal down-cycle (assuming no economic screwups again), then we swing into a 2-3 year hiring cycle again. The Majors have no real issues in hiring, but the Regionals, on the other hand, have a real problem finding pilots. To the point that they can't staff. They start screaming bloody murder through the ATA. "Whatever will we do?" they cry, and people listen because, unless something changes dramatically in Scope take-backs over the next decade, Regionals will still be flying between 30-50% of all Flag operations, just like they do now.

They'll start pushing to use that loophole in the FAR's that's currently being proposed: "Special Air Crew Training in lieu of obtaining an ATP". Voila. U.S. Ab Initio training is born.

You have to look further down the road than most pilots think of, which is why ALPA is trying to gear up to battle the FAA's proposal by trying to lobby for the successful passage of HR.3371.

Sorry so lengthy, but you have to think long-term to understand the danger. We really WILL be in a pilot shortage in about 12-15 years unless, in the next decade, high school and college kids start seriously pursuing aviation again for a career, which isn't likely unless our salaries and QOL bounces back. I'd like to nip this loophole in the bud if possible, for the future of our industry.

Yep that loophole is brought you you by the ATA! It in effect nullifies the bills. It will be good political cover without effecting the contributions to the campaign coffers.

If you want to put ATP's in the cockpits, then kill the loop hole.

As for a shortage:
Well unless mainline rates go up to attract people to the prospect of 300K+ a year, those bright individuals will be doing other jobs that will require a heck of a lot less BS.

Banks do not want to underwrite aviation degrees as they are a bad bet, ergo reduced civilian entrants.
The military is not producing pilots like they used to. (UAV's has been mentioned) They are also keeping their pilots.
Crazy retirements coming later this decade.

Add all of that up with the expected growth and of course the ATA et al is going to want ab initio pilots like Japan, China etc produce. It is cheap, and the expectations will be lower. It also allows them not to compensate pilots what they are worth. In effect they can keep the barriers to entry lower.

It needs to be financial as well as regulatory.

I know it has been discussed ad nauseam, but ALPA or the like needs to get in the the business of board certification like the docs have.

 

[OCP]

Again, I never saw one company not have 100's if not thousands of resumes on hand.
Show me ONE company that said they couldn't fill seats in a class?!

ASA.
ASA was better compensated and had a better contract than most regionals at the time. ASA would get 20 people into a class and only 10 would show up.
People who think that there won't be a pilot shortage couldn't have been at a regional during the last stage of hiring in the industry. I really can only speak for ASA but we were desperate to get pilot. I flew with MANY 300hr FOs. Usually they were fine as long as we had still winds and they flew the panel, but if there was a cross wind or unusual situation it was a single pilot day.
ASA was so nervous about how to get pilots that they were contemplating paying for the training of the pilot. And I don't mean ASA's training, I mean from 0 time to commercial pilot type training.

 

[Lear70]

Why are foreign carriers hiring American pilots?

In Asia, many of the people who attend college make more money than pilots, and with the training and time required to become a pilot AFTER college, they'd simply rather not, so it leaves fewer people applying.

In the M.E., they struggle to find people who are trainable at all, and I can't tell you why, honestly don't know... but almost all the M.E. airlines hire expats exclusively.

Asia and India are trying to train their own F/O's ab-initio, but can't get enough people to staff their own growth, hence the requirements for Expats.

Europe is another story, simply because it's a more preferable place to live for many, the incomes of pilots are pretty decent compared to everyone else, and unemployment is still pretty high in most of Europe, so getting an ab-initio slot is somewhat like winning the lottery; lots of applicants, and those applicants can't afford to get their own ratings (very few flight schools, very tight screening and testing, and EXPENSIVE $$$!!!) So they're forced to use ab-initio.

In the few jobs that pop up in Europe, you'll see a lot of "EU right of abode and JAA license required". There's jobs over there for Expats, but you have to do the $15,000 / 6 month ATP conversion training (which requires 2 trips to Europe as well as the money and LOTS of studying), and you need to marry an EU citizen to get the EU right of abode (or be sponsored, which almost never happens).

 

[maxblast72]

1) The majority of the stimulus money (approx 70-80%) that the "Chosen One" has allocated, won't actually hit the street until sometime in 2012 or 2013, conveniently around the next presidential election! (is that timing or what?)

You can't fix a problem caused by too much easy credit and money (leverage) in the private sector/consumer by excessive spending (leverage) by the government sector. Doesn't matter who is president. Going to very painful for many people as we experience the deleveraging process over the next 2-3 years.

 

[Lear70]

Again, I never saw one company not have 100's if not thousands of resumes on hand.
Show me ONE company that said they couldn't fill seats in a class?!

If company A said they were having a hard time finding pilots, it was because THEY didn't have a compensation package comparable to the rest of the industry.

You're KILLING me... lolol

You state on one hand, show you ONE company that said they couldn't fill seats in a class, then you acknowledge that companies CAN'T fill classes because of their compensation package.

That is a shortage of pilots that will take the job at those wages, i.e., a pilot shortage, that results in increased compensation. It's the VERY DEFINITION! I don't get what you're trying to argue here because you contradict yourself.

The day that a flight cancels due to a carrier not having a qualified pilot to put into training, I'll believe there is a pilot shortage.

That happened at Pinnacle twice, got hit with a HUGE fine from Northwest in two separate quarters because we were canceling flights due to lack of flight crews because no one would take the job.

PS> You got hired at Pinnacle as a street captain? What equipment and why?

CRJ. Their own low-time pilots they hired couldn't pass the upgrade or Saab transition training, 80% failure rate on upgrade/transition, so they hired street Captains with jet command experience who COULD (95% pass rate).

They first tried to hire us as F/O's, we refused, then they'd come back in and say "OK, but you won't get paid in training". Wrong, try again. They come back in, "OK, we'll pay for your hotel and per diem in training." It was just a matter of holding out and politely refusing until they came back with an acceptable compensation package. Not great, just "acceptable".

ACA tried the same thing, bring you up as a DECA candidate, then tell you, "Oh, we're only hiring F/O's." That was a short interview. I told them I was there for a Captain slot, they said they were no longer going to hire Captains, I politely thanked them for their time (even though I was pi$$ed they had wasted mine) and got up to leave. They said, "You're not going to complete the interview?" Totally shocked them, I don't think anyone had ever done that before...

When a company can't hire, they call it a pilot shortage. You can call it what you want, but if it increases salaries and QOL, I'll take it, regardless of what you want to call it.

 

[rice]

Crosspost from the Regionals

Seems as though every month or so, someone starts a thread either here or at the Majors section about talk of a future pilot shortage with age 65 guys retiring in Dec 2012 combined with the economy recovering around that time. Others throw in the fact that there are far fewer student pilots who are willing to invest the time and money in obtaining they're certificates and ratings to become airline pilots as there were as recently as 10 yrs ago due to there being no pot of gold at the Majors as there once was.


I wanted to give you my 2 cents on why I think there will be far fewer students wanting to become airline pilot. This is my personal observation only and isn't any means gospel!

I am a just a private pilot, 400 hrs, 28 yrs old and fly a desk for a living and make decent money, but am by no means rich. I fly primarily on the weekends and enjoy it very much (of course!).

In my early to mid 20's when the airline industry was slowly recovering, I was eager to fly for the airlines via the normal CFI-Regional-Major pipeline. I was aware (from being on FI so much) of the pitfalls of the industry that ERAU/GIA/UND don't tell you.

Back in 2005 or so, I believed that sometime between 2008-10 that the industry would really be shining and that I'd go through with the rest of my cert and ratings and get on with a regional ..........................................

Your thoughts?

Hard to believe that after 23 posts no one has picked up on this sentence. This one statement in and of itself is why compensation levels are as poor as they are and why the supply/demand curve of pilots has been so out of whack for years. "...... eager to fly for the airlines via the normal CFI-Regional-Major pipeline". News flash, there hasn't been a "Major" part of that so-called pipeline in more than 5 years!!!!!!! It was this false hope/misguided logic of the newbies that created the over supply of un(der) qualified pilots in the first place.
How in the world could any fool ever buy into the idea that they would even get a chance for the brass ring (job at a major) with the way this industry has been going for the past 10 years. It amazes me to this day that student starts have only decreased by 20% the occupation's (used to be a profession) present salary structure simply does not support or justify the cost of training or the cost of a 4 year college education any longer.
I could go on and on about this one topic but.................................................................

P.S. Booze, in no way was I implying that you are a fool as you obviously saw the light and although you are not "living the dream" you are most certainly making more at your 9-5 job and actually able to enjoy life.

 

[BOOZENEWS]

So do you think ALPA will be successful in killing the ATP loophole and how likely is it that HR 3371 will become law in it's current form? I sure as hell hope they are fighting tooth and nail to no let anything less than ATP mins-period.


The other thing that should happen it ALPA should form a guild that sets minimum pay rates based on either the number of seats or weight. If any pilot accepts a job offer for less than this minimum rate, then they DO NOT get any union representation and can not use the jumpseat--IOW he/she will be treated just like a scab is now.

This IS NOT the same as a National Seniority List, all it is is a REAL barrier to entry just as the ABA and AMA have already.

Under this system your seniority will still allow you to optimize your schedule/QOL, vacation time, etc, just as it is now, but your pay rate will be the guild minimum or better.

 

[motch]

When a company can't hire, they call it a pilot shortage. You can call it what you want, but if it increases salaries and QOL, I'll take it, regardless of what you want to call it.

I'll give you this one...
But that still doesn't make for an industry wide pilot shortage.

There are currently 147 Continental pilots out on the street.
There are over 1000 UAL pilots out on the street.
There are also a couple of hundred American Pilots out on the street.
There are also a couple of hundred USAir/AmWest pilots out on the street.
There are probably a few Thousand ex TWA pilots out on the street.

That alone counts for probably over 5000 pilots who are full qualified to sit in the right seat, (and maybe even the left seat) of a 121 carrier.

As far as ASA not being able to fill its classes, well- that's an ASA issue cause there were ex ACA/Indy pilots on the street, along with ex TWA/AA pilots and others from UAL and CAL...
There might be a shortage of pilots willing to work for low pay, but that isn't the same as saying there is a pilot shortage.

In 2 years when the next wave starts, we'll see how many get hired at the majors and cargo carriers and what affect it has on the Regionals.
If 100 seat aircraft make it to the majors, you will see the Regionals stop their growth and just have to deal with attrition.

I guess we'll just agree to disagree.
What a shortage of pilots means, and also who's calling it a shortage!

Fly Safe
Always
motch

 

[Lear70]

I'll give you this one...
But that still doesn't make for an industry wide pilot shortage.

Never said it does...

The point is that when the pilot pool dries up for the Regionals, and they can't staff, they'll scream "Pilot Shortage" to the FAA, Congress, and the Senate, with the help of the ATA, and lobby for the waiver from the new, proposed legislation, with a form of ab-initio training.

They'll claim that the "pilot shortage" (which all of US will understand to mean people BASICALLY qualified by FAR's to fill the seat who will actually TAKE the job at their offered wages, but the REST of the country won't hear that) is resulting in them being unable to staff which will cause a problem with air travel and that they need relief.

You and I understand that IF they pay a reasonable wage, people will leave their charter gigs and other places and come to work there, but the rest of the world won't get to hear OUR side of the story, they'll just hear the lobbying machine's press releases and news sound bites.

If it happens, there will NEVER be pressure to increase wages. If we can't secure our futures by then, you can kiss any meaningful recovery to what this profession once was goodbye...

 

[LXApilot]

Tell me about a time that a "pilot shortage" caused an increase in wages, work-rules and retirement in a CBA?

 

[HalinTexas]

I'll give you this one...
But that still doesn't make for an industry wide pilot shortage.

There are currently 147 Continental pilots out on the street.
There are over 1000 UAL pilots out on the street.
There are also a couple of hundred American Pilots out on the street.
There are also a couple of hundred USAir/AmWest pilots out on the street.
There are probably a few Thousand ex TWA pilots out on the street.

That alone counts for probably over 5000 pilots who are full qualified to sit in the right seat, (and maybe even the left seat) of a 121 carrier.

As far as ASA not being able to fill its classes, well- that's an ASA issue cause there were ex ACA/Indy pilots on the street, along with ex TWA/AA pilots and others from UAL and CAL...
There might be a shortage of pilots willing to work for low pay, but that isn't the same as saying there is a pilot shortage.

In 2 years when the next wave starts, we'll see how many get hired at the majors and cargo carriers and what affect it has on the Regionals.
If 100 seat aircraft make it to the majors, you will see the Regionals stop their growth and just have to deal with attrition.

I guess we'll just agree to disagree.
What a shortage of pilots means, and also who's calling it a shortage!

Fly Safe
Always
motch

1. Some of those you mentioned have found flying work elsewhere. Not all will be coming back on recall.

2. You forgot that ATA, Aloha, Champion, Skybus, Skyway and .... have I forgotten anyone? ... all shut down in '08. You would be surprised how many have NOT found suitable flying work. You'd also be surprised how many have left the country.

3. Quite a few freight-dogs on the street, with more coming. They're qualified if not current.

4. The "fracs" have laid off quite a few lately as well. Many were at those fore-mentioned carriers that furloughed.

5. There are still many, although not AS many, still coming out of the flight-school pipeline.

6. There might be more furloughs, BK's coming in the next couple of years. I have yet to figure out how UAL has stayed in business. In '02 Chase backed some $20B in loans.