Why there's a good chance of a future pilot shortage

[BOOZENEWS]

Crosspost from the Regionals

Seems as though every month or so, someone starts a thread either here or at the Majors section about talk of a future pilot shortage with age 65 guys retiring in Dec 2012 combined with the economy recovering around that time. Others throw in the fact that there are far fewer student pilots who are willing to invest the time and money in obtaining they're certificates and ratings to become airline pilots as there were as recently as 10 yrs ago due to there being no pot of gold at the Majors as there once was.


I wanted to give you my 2 cents on why I think there will be far fewer students wanting to become airline pilot. This is my personal observation only and isn't any means gospel!

I am a just a private pilot, 400 hrs, 28 yrs old and fly a desk for a living and make decent money, but am by no means rich. I fly primarily on the weekends and enjoy it very much (of course!).

In my early to mid 20's when the airline industry was slowly recovering, I was eager to fly for the airlines via the normal CFI-Regional-Major pipeline. I was aware (from being on FI so much) of the pitfalls of the industry that ERAU/GIA/UND don't tell you.

Back in 2005 or so, I believed that sometime between 2008-10 that the industry would really be shining and that I'd go through with the rest of my cert and ratings and get on with a regional. I based this decision back then on the industry recovering in the 08-10 timeframe.

Of course this DIDN'T happen! Since 2008 or so, I decided it is highly unlikely I will peruse an airline career. I might get my CFI for a side job on the weekends or do a bit of contract flying in a light jet someday, but the chances of me quitting my 9 to 5 and going to a regional are practically nil barring some unforeseen miracle!

Why is this important??

Because SURELY, I'm NOT the only low time pilot who once was EAGER to fly for the airlines recently, but NOW am NOT going to do it due to things being even worse now that they were 5 yrs ago in the industry.

If there are a lot of other low time pilots who were once on the fence like I once was but who now are walking away, surely this will favorably affect the supply side of the equation and give existing pilot more leverage (not now, but certainly 10 yrs or more from now) at the negotiation table.

Again maybe not quickly but surely downstream this WILL EVENTUALLY catch up and give pilots at the regionals (and later the majors) a nice tailwind when it comes to pay and workrules.

Your thoughts?

 

[twobits]

hahahahahahahaha....... not trying to be insensitive here, but there will never be an airline pilot shortage - management will ensure this by contributing to articles that say there is one. They want as many people in the pool of applicants as possible - greater supply = lower price paid to pilots.

Look how many people are out of a job now; and also look how many pilots have chosen other careers after seeing what a shambles this career is. Not something anybody should subject themselves to, but people's ego's still get them involved in this industry as pilots..... better to be a manager at an airline, at least you get paid what you are worth. And not a pilot manager.

 

[Tweaker]

You think airline management gets paid what is is worth? You have not worked at the places I have, or you would feel that they are grossly overpaid!
Monkeys high on PCP could do a better job.

 

[crj567]

This thread brought to you by AirInc...

ALWAYS a pilot shortage right around the corner....

-Never ends

 

[flythere]

I've heard it referred to as the "Perfect Storm"


1) The majority of the stimulus money (approx 70-80%) that the "Chosen One" has allocated, won't actually hit the street until sometime in 2012 or 2013, conveniently around the next presidential election! (is that timing or what?)

2) All the "Super Senior" Citizen Pilots will begin retiring in 2012, with some of the more senile ones being forced out starting sometime in early 2011, (falling asleep during their 6 mo sim checks).

3) AOPA reported 2007 or 2008, the number of applicants seeking student pilots licenses was down by more than 20%, they cited the high cost of fuel driving the cost out of reach of the average american. The article I read estimated that the average pilot would take somewhere around 5 yrs or so to make it to the regionals, maybe a little longer!

4) In April of 2009 the Air Force Times reported that for the first time in history, more pilot candidates were sent to fly UAV's than real airplanes. Those aviators are not considered rated pilots and cannot log flight time. If you consider the number of active duty pilots that palace chase or palace front to the reserves, typically 5 to 6 years into their initial 10 year commitment, this could have a small impact.

Any one of these alone would not be a big deal, but put all 4 of them together and it could be very interesting sometime between 2013 and 2015!

Just my 2 cent worth!

 

[flythere]

And NO, I don't work for Scaire-Inc!!

 

[skywdriver]

I think to some extent, the effects of market forces will be seen in the future. If you think of the supply and demand curve, substitute price for salary, cost of getting there, and quality of life. As those go down, there are going to be fewer people interested in the job. I am sure there will always be those pilots who decide that regardless of the costs to get there and rewards along the way, that is what they want to do. AS well, there will always be those who start anyways in hopes that things wll get better. I think the biggest thing that will prevent a pilot shortage in the future will be cabotage and outsourcing to foreign countries or ab-initio (sp?) programs where pilots are "selected" to fly for major carriers before they have ever flown an airplane - like Lufthansa. It is going to be interesting to see what this industry looks like in 30 years.

 

[Lear70]

I think the biggest thing that will prevent a pilot shortage in the future will be cabotage and outsourcing to foreign countries or ab-initio (sp?) programs where pilots are "selected" to fly for major carriers before they have ever flown an airplane - like Lufthansa.

Which is why every, single pilot needs to contact their Congressional and Senatorial representatives and push the support of HR 3371. The FAA is pushing their version of the ATP for airline flying requirement, as well as higher flight times for Commercial certificates, but creating the loophole that will lead to Ab Initio when things get tight again for the airlines.

HR3371 eliminates the loophole - it's a rider on the main bill.

www.house.gov
www.senate.gov

It is going to be interesting to see what this industry looks like in 30 years.

If we don't nip the FAA version of flight time limits (which is being heavily lobbied by the RAA) in the bud, then there will be no "perfect storm", and we'll get flooded with ab initio pilots in the U.S., all willing to work for even less than what starting wages are now, 2 or 3 years out of High School.

 

[BOOZENEWS]

Which is why every, single pilot needs to contact their Congressional and Senatorial representatives and push the support of HR 3371. The FAA is pushing their version of the ATP for airline flying requirement, as well as higher flight times for Commercial certificates, but creating the loophole that will lead to Ab Initio when things get tight again for the airlines.

HR3371 eliminates the loophole - it's a rider on the main bill.

www.house.gov
www.senate.gov


If we don't nip the FAA version of flight time limits (which is being heavily lobbied by the RAA) in the bud, then there will be no "perfect storm", and we'll get flooded with ab initio pilots in the U.S., all willing to work for even less than what starting wages are now, 2 or 3 years out of High School.

Wait a second--aren't the payrates higher at most of the foreign carriers than they are at the US airlines. Last time I checked, most of the Foreign Majors were hiring US pilots to counteract a pilot shortage over there--not the other way around.

We are actually the ones exerting downward pressure of they're wages. China, India, etc can't turn out enough pilots in their own homeland to meet the growing demand for air travel over there so it is silly to think that they will flood our market and lower the bar.

 

[BOOZENEWS]

Which is why every, single pilot needs to contact their Congressional and Senatorial representatives and push the support of HR 3371. The FAA is pushing their version of the ATP for airline flying requirement, as well as higher flight times for Commercial certificates, but creating the loophole that will lead to Ab Initio when things get tight again for the airlines.

HR3371 eliminates the loophole - it's a rider on the main bill.

www.house.gov
www.senate.gov


If we don't nip the FAA version of flight time limits (which is being heavily lobbied by the RAA) in the bud, then there will be no "perfect storm", and we'll get flooded with ab initio pilots in the U.S., all willing to work for even less than what starting wages are now, 2 or 3 years out of High School.

Which version looks like it has the best chance of passing? Is there a website where I can track the progress of each version? Thanks

 

[Lear70]

Wait a second--aren't the payrates higher at most of the foreign carriers than they are at the US airlines. Last time I checked, most of the Foreign Majors were hiring US pilots to counteract a pilot shortage over there--not the other way around.

We are actually the ones exerting downward pressure of they're wages. China, India, etc can't turn out enough pilots in their own homeland to meet the growing demand for air travel over there so it is silly to think that they will flood our market and lower the bar.

I wasn't talking about cabotage. I was talking about a U.S. Ab Initio program. The future, if the FAA ANPRM turns into a NPRM without changes and then is written into FAR's as-proposed, would look something like this:

Next 3-5 years, nothing changes, industry continues to slowly improve, ASM's are roughly flat across the board at most airlines, a few LCC's as notable exceptions (AAI, Allegiant), but the only real hiring occurs for attrition from age 65 as it starts to come into focus.

Next 2-3 years, aviation up-swing, the Majors finally have to start picking people up in a major way, AA's retirements hit hard, lots of recalls, we basically get all the guys and gals on the streets back into cockpits, then we start to go through the high-time Regional Captains as they get picked up at the Majors.

The Regionals start to upgrade again, and go to hire F/O's to replace the upgrading pilots. The pilots from some of the 3rd tier freight operators, charter operators, higher-time CFI's that have been hanging out instructing for years, etc finally get a Regional slot, and the 3rd tier freight operators upgrade THEIR F/O's, then look to replace them and find...

Not a whole lot of anything to replace them with. This will be the first signal that there's an impending "pilot shortage".

Then another 3-5 years of not much hiring, normal down-cycle (assuming no economic screwups again), then we swing into a 2-3 year hiring cycle again. The Majors have no real issues in hiring, but the Regionals, on the other hand, have a real problem finding pilots. To the point that they can't staff. They start screaming bloody murder through the ATA. "Whatever will we do?" they cry, and people listen because, unless something changes dramatically in Scope take-backs over the next decade, Regionals will still be flying between 30-50% of all Flag operations, just like they do now.

They'll start pushing to use that loophole in the FAR's that's currently being proposed: "Special Air Crew Training in lieu of obtaining an ATP". Voila. U.S. Ab Initio training is born.

You have to look further down the road than most pilots think of, which is why ALPA is trying to gear up to battle the FAA's proposal by trying to lobby for the successful passage of HR.3371.

Sorry so lengthy, but you have to think long-term to understand the danger. We really WILL be in a pilot shortage in about 12-15 years unless, in the next decade, high school and college kids start seriously pursuing aviation again for a career, which isn't likely unless our salaries and QOL bounces back. I'd like to nip this loophole in the bud if possible, for the future of our industry.

 

[Lear70]

Only the House version includes the ATP requirements for Airline pilots WITHOUT a loophole for later Ab-Initio type work. There's no version pending in the Senate that does the same thing that I'm aware of.

I posted both links to House and Senate so some of you (hopefully many of you) will go, find the links to your local Reps for where you live, and write them. Only takes about 5 minutes.

 

[motch]

Never be a Pilot Shortage-
For there to be a shortage, you have to have a company that says they need x amount of pilots yet only y amount apply.

Show me one company where they have had less applicants for the amount of pilots needed.

What there will be, is a shortage of qualified pilots willing to fly for the wages offered by certain companies.
Even during the periods where the Regionals were hiring 250-500 hr wonders, there were furloughed mainline pilots with thousands of hours of flight time who were available yet not willing to fly for those low wages and poor work rules.

That does not constitute a Pilot Shortage.

Motch

 

[Lear70]

Never be a Pilot Shortage-
For there to be a shortage, you have to have a company that says they need x amount of pilots yet only y amount apply.

Show me one company where they have had less applicants for the amount of pilots needed.

What there will be, is a shortage of qualified pilots willing to fly for the wages offered by certain companies.
Even during the periods where the Regionals were hiring 250-500 hr wonders, there were furloughed mainline pilots with thousands of hours of flight time who were available yet not willing to fly for those low wages and poor work rules.

That does not constitute a Pilot Shortage.

Motch

Non-sequitur, you just said on one hand that the companies were forced to hire low-time pilots because they couldn't get anyone qualified to take the job, yet then said that wasn't a pilot shortage.

I'm sure the HR people trying to fill seats wouldn't agree with you when the big-wigs are telling them "We want 1,200 hours TT / 300 MEL" and they can't get but 1 or 2 out of 20 seats in every class with those times at those wages. To that employer, there's a pilot shortage.

Industry-wide? No. But at the Regional level, when that represents 30-50% of domestic pilot employment? That's substantial enough to be labeled a pilot shortage...

Case in point, that's what allowed me to get hired at a Regional as an off-the-street Captain, paid in training, single occupancy hotel, when that had never been done before at Pinnacle. Pilot shortage = better compensation.

That's the trick, raise the bar of Regional F/O to require an ATP (something I've been saying for nearly a decade now, including here on these boards if you'll research back that far), and the Regionals won't have a CHOICE but to raise compensation.

Once Regionals raise compensation, the Majors will have to raise starting pay as well to get those RJ Captains to leave their Regionals, or simply hire Regional F/O's with no command time, which is the one thing that will keep the Majors from increased pay as much as the Regionals will be forced to.

We're basically talking about an artificial barrier to entrance to the profession, much like the ABA or AMA restricts med school entrants. Rather than restrict who can enroll in flight school, we simply make it require YEARS of paying for your own flying or being a CFI (if you can find a flight school that hasn't gone out of business) to get to ATP minimums and no one will WANT to be a pilot unless the payoff is there.

At some point, either pay comes up to attract entrants or the airlines get relief if they can successfully lobby for it. I'd like to at least see us have a fighting chance at the former, rather than just resign ourselves to the latter.

YMMV

 

[ePilot22]

.....



eP.

 

[motch]

Non-sequitur, you just said on one hand that the companies were forced to hire low-time pilots because they couldn't get anyone qualified to take the job, yet then said that wasn't a pilot shortage.

I'm sure the HR people trying to fill seats wouldn't agree with you when the big-wigs are telling them "We want 1,200 hours TT / 300 MEL" and they can't get but 1 or 2 out of 20 seats in every class with those times at those wages. To that employer, there's a pilot shortage.

Industry-wide? No. But at the Regional level, when that represents 30-50% of domestic pilot employment? That's substantial enough to be labeled a pilot shortage...

Case in point, that's what allowed me to get hired at a Regional as an off-the-street Captain, paid in training, single occupancy hotel, when that had never been done before at Pinnacle. Pilot shortage = better compensation.

Again, I never saw one company not have 100's if not thousands of resumes on hand.
Show me ONE company that said they couldn't fill seats in a class?!

If company A said they were having a hard time finding pilots, it was because THEY didn't have a compensation package comparable to the rest of the industry.
As an ex TSA pilot, I saw how my company had to pay for initial lodging because the competition was doing the same... they were having a hard time filling classes because young low time pilots were choosing the competition over TSA. At the same time, there were pilots on the street from TWA who were more than qualified but refused to work for such low wages.

As far as the HR department goes..
If they want 1200 TT/300 ME and are only getting 1-2 pilots in class, is it because there aren't any pilots out there with those mins, or is it because there aren't enough pilots willing to accept the job at that level of compensation?

I had one friend who interviewed at TSA and got turned down! Had more than the mins... he also interviewed at 2 other carriers and got on with both of them. Ended up at one of them.
Also have pilots in my Guard unit that had the mins for almost ALL regional carriers but couldn't/wouldn't take the job due to compensation/basing. But again, they were more than qualified and therefor do not represent a "pilot shortage".

You got hired as an off-the-street captain because of 2 reasons-
1) The company that hired you to do that determined that it was cheaper to hire you than lower the minimums while raising the insurance premiums for Captains!
2) The company that hired you was betting that they would get enough bodies (a couple of dozen?) to fill the seats at the low wages they were offering.

In both cases, they were able to save costs that went into their pockets (management) instead of paying an honest wage or taking care of their employees already on property.

The guys and gals who ran over to SkyBus thought that they were getting a good deal.. Captain seats even though they were at lower than industry wages, or FO's with quick upgrades.
Where are they now?
Do you think SkyBus had a pilot shortage?

The day that a flight cancels due to a carrier not having a qualified pilot to put into training, I'll believe there is a pilot shortage.
But when bottom feeders or new carriers who come into the market cry about a pilot shortage.. I'll just continue to shake my head and not buy into the hype!

always
Motch

PS> You got hired at Pinnacle as a street captain? What equipment and why?
GoJet was hiring Street Captains during my time at TSA too.. but it wasn't because of a "pilot shortage".. it was because of scumbag management.

 

[macdu]

I think the biggest thing that will prevent a pilot shortage in the future will be cabotage and outsourcing to foreign countries or ab-initio (sp?) programs where pilots are "selected" to fly for major carriers before they have ever flown an airplane - like Lufthansa. It is going to be interesting to see what this industry looks like in 30 years.[/QUOTE]

BINGO!

In China right now flying with the ab-initio pilots.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

For those of you who are too young, or not students of history, there have ALREADY been pilot shortages, and there will be in the future, until conditions change, and then there is a surplus. That is how earth works.

For example, when UAL (and eveyrone else) was recruiting in high schools, and hiring guys with a diploma and a Private Pilot's License, I would call that a shortage.

When the regionals were hiring guys WITHOUT a Commercial, or with a Commercial but less than 200 hours, I would call that a shortage.

cliff
NBO
PS-If I HAD gone to Skybus and gotten 500 hours there, I would have a much better job than the one I have now!

 

[pilotyip]

don't let Avbug hear that

Hi!

For those of you who are too young, or not students of history, there have ALREADY been pilot shortages, and there will be in the future, until conditions change, and then there is a surplus. That is how earth works.

For example, when UAL (and eveyrone else) was recruiting in high schools, and hiring guys with a diploma and a Private Pilot's License, I would call that a shortage.

When the regionals were hiring guys WITHOUT a Commercial, or with a Commercial but less than 200 hours, I would call that a shortage.

cliff
NBO
PS-If I HAD gone to Skybus and gotten 500 hours there, I would have a much better job than the one I have now!

Don’t let Avbug hear you say pilot shortage, he says there is never a pilot shortage. However there are hiring booms and as posted elsewhere it is already starting approach the maximum rate of change in 2012. BTW we heard the same stories about the airlines having 15,000 resume back in 1995; trouble is everyone had the same 15,000 resume, after a few years of hiring into 1997. They found that most of the resume already had other jobs. Which accelerated the hiring boom.</p>

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I wasn't talking about cabotage. I was talking about a U.S. Ab Initio program. The future, if the FAA ANPRM turns into a NPRM without changes and then is written into FAR's as-proposed, would look something like this:

Next 3-5 years, nothing changes, industry continues to slowly improve, ASM's are roughly flat across the board at most airlines, a few LCC's as notable exceptions (AAI, Allegiant), but the only real hiring occurs for attrition from age 65 as it starts to come into focus.

Next 2-3 years, aviation up-swing, the Majors finally have to start picking people up in a major way, AA's retirements hit hard, lots of recalls, we basically get all the guys and gals on the streets back into cockpits, then we start to go through the high-time Regional Captains as they get picked up at the Majors.

The Regionals start to upgrade again, and go to hire F/O's to replace the upgrading pilots. The pilots from some of the 3rd tier freight operators, charter operators, higher-time CFI's that have been hanging out instructing for years, etc finally get a Regional slot, and the 3rd tier freight operators upgrade THEIR F/O's, then look to replace them and find...

Not a whole lot of anything to replace them with. This will be the first signal that there's an impending "pilot shortage".

Then another 3-5 years of not much hiring, normal down-cycle (assuming no economic screwups again), then we swing into a 2-3 year hiring cycle again. The Majors have no real issues in hiring, but the Regionals, on the other hand, have a real problem finding pilots. To the point that they can't staff. They start screaming bloody murder through the ATA. "Whatever will we do?" they cry, and people listen because, unless something changes dramatically in Scope take-backs over the next decade, Regionals will still be flying between 30-50% of all Flag operations, just like they do now.

They'll start pushing to use that loophole in the FAR's that's currently being proposed: "Special Air Crew Training in lieu of obtaining an ATP". Voila. U.S. Ab Initio training is born.

You have to look further down the road than most pilots think of, which is why ALPA is trying to gear up to battle the FAA's proposal by trying to lobby for the successful passage of HR.3371.

Sorry so lengthy, but you have to think long-term to understand the danger. We really WILL be in a pilot shortage in about 12-15 years unless, in the next decade, high school and college kids start seriously pursuing aviation again for a career, which isn't likely unless our salaries and QOL bounces back. I'd like to nip this loophole in the bud if possible, for the future of our industry.

Yep that loophole is brought you you by the ATA! It in effect nullifies the bills. It will be good political cover without effecting the contributions to the campaign coffers.

If you want to put ATP's in the cockpits, then kill the loop hole.

As for a shortage:
Well unless mainline rates go up to attract people to the prospect of 300K+ a year, those bright individuals will be doing other jobs that will require a heck of a lot less BS.

Banks do not want to underwrite aviation degrees as they are a bad bet, ergo reduced civilian entrants.
The military is not producing pilots like they used to. (UAV's has been mentioned) They are also keeping their pilots.
Crazy retirements coming later this decade.

Add all of that up with the expected growth and of course the ATA et al is going to want ab initio pilots like Japan, China etc produce. It is cheap, and the expectations will be lower. It also allows them not to compensate pilots what they are worth. In effect they can keep the barriers to entry lower.

It needs to be financial as well as regulatory.

I know it has been discussed ad nauseam, but ALPA or the like needs to get in the the business of board certification like the docs have.