Why there's a good chance of a future pilot shortage

[BOOZENEWS]

Crosspost from the Regionals

Seems as though every month or so, someone starts a thread either here or at the Majors section about talk of a future pilot shortage with age 65 guys retiring in Dec 2012 combined with the economy recovering around that time. Others throw in the fact that there are far fewer student pilots who are willing to invest the time and money in obtaining they're certificates and ratings to become airline pilots as there were as recently as 10 yrs ago due to there being no pot of gold at the Majors as there once was.


I wanted to give you my 2 cents on why I think there will be far fewer students wanting to become airline pilot. This is my personal observation only and isn't any means gospel!

I am a just a private pilot, 400 hrs, 28 yrs old and fly a desk for a living and make decent money, but am by no means rich. I fly primarily on the weekends and enjoy it very much (of course!).

In my early to mid 20's when the airline industry was slowly recovering, I was eager to fly for the airlines via the normal CFI-Regional-Major pipeline. I was aware (from being on FI so much) of the pitfalls of the industry that ERAU/GIA/UND don't tell you.

Back in 2005 or so, I believed that sometime between 2008-10 that the industry would really be shining and that I'd go through with the rest of my cert and ratings and get on with a regional. I based this decision back then on the industry recovering in the 08-10 timeframe.

Of course this DIDN'T happen! Since 2008 or so, I decided it is highly unlikely I will peruse an airline career. I might get my CFI for a side job on the weekends or do a bit of contract flying in a light jet someday, but the chances of me quitting my 9 to 5 and going to a regional are practically nil barring some unforeseen miracle!

Why is this important??

Because SURELY, I'm NOT the only low time pilot who once was EAGER to fly for the airlines recently, but NOW am NOT going to do it due to things being even worse now that they were 5 yrs ago in the industry.

If there are a lot of other low time pilots who were once on the fence like I once was but who now are walking away, surely this will favorably affect the supply side of the equation and give existing pilot more leverage (not now, but certainly 10 yrs or more from now) at the negotiation table.

Again maybe not quickly but surely downstream this WILL EVENTUALLY catch up and give pilots at the regionals (and later the majors) a nice tailwind when it comes to pay and workrules.

Your thoughts?

 

[twobits]

hahahahahahahaha....... not trying to be insensitive here, but there will never be an airline pilot shortage - management will ensure this by contributing to articles that say there is one. They want as many people in the pool of applicants as possible - greater supply = lower price paid to pilots.

Look how many people are out of a job now; and also look how many pilots have chosen other careers after seeing what a shambles this career is. Not something anybody should subject themselves to, but people's ego's still get them involved in this industry as pilots..... better to be a manager at an airline, at least you get paid what you are worth. And not a pilot manager.

 

[Tweaker]

You think airline management gets paid what is is worth? You have not worked at the places I have, or you would feel that they are grossly overpaid!
Monkeys high on PCP could do a better job.

 

[crj567]

This thread brought to you by AirInc...

ALWAYS a pilot shortage right around the corner....

-Never ends

 

[flythere]

I've heard it referred to as the "Perfect Storm"


1) The majority of the stimulus money (approx 70-80%) that the "Chosen One" has allocated, won't actually hit the street until sometime in 2012 or 2013, conveniently around the next presidential election! (is that timing or what?)

2) All the "Super Senior" Citizen Pilots will begin retiring in 2012, with some of the more senile ones being forced out starting sometime in early 2011, (falling asleep during their 6 mo sim checks).

3) AOPA reported 2007 or 2008, the number of applicants seeking student pilots licenses was down by more than 20%, they cited the high cost of fuel driving the cost out of reach of the average american. The article I read estimated that the average pilot would take somewhere around 5 yrs or so to make it to the regionals, maybe a little longer!

4) In April of 2009 the Air Force Times reported that for the first time in history, more pilot candidates were sent to fly UAV's than real airplanes. Those aviators are not considered rated pilots and cannot log flight time. If you consider the number of active duty pilots that palace chase or palace front to the reserves, typically 5 to 6 years into their initial 10 year commitment, this could have a small impact.

Any one of these alone would not be a big deal, but put all 4 of them together and it could be very interesting sometime between 2013 and 2015!

Just my 2 cent worth!

 

[flythere]

And NO, I don't work for Scaire-Inc!!

 

[skywdriver]

I think to some extent, the effects of market forces will be seen in the future. If you think of the supply and demand curve, substitute price for salary, cost of getting there, and quality of life. As those go down, there are going to be fewer people interested in the job. I am sure there will always be those pilots who decide that regardless of the costs to get there and rewards along the way, that is what they want to do. AS well, there will always be those who start anyways in hopes that things wll get better. I think the biggest thing that will prevent a pilot shortage in the future will be cabotage and outsourcing to foreign countries or ab-initio (sp?) programs where pilots are "selected" to fly for major carriers before they have ever flown an airplane - like Lufthansa. It is going to be interesting to see what this industry looks like in 30 years.

 

[Lear70]

I think the biggest thing that will prevent a pilot shortage in the future will be cabotage and outsourcing to foreign countries or ab-initio (sp?) programs where pilots are "selected" to fly for major carriers before they have ever flown an airplane - like Lufthansa.

Which is why every, single pilot needs to contact their Congressional and Senatorial representatives and push the support of HR 3371. The FAA is pushing their version of the ATP for airline flying requirement, as well as higher flight times for Commercial certificates, but creating the loophole that will lead to Ab Initio when things get tight again for the airlines.

HR3371 eliminates the loophole - it's a rider on the main bill.

www.house.gov
www.senate.gov

It is going to be interesting to see what this industry looks like in 30 years.

If we don't nip the FAA version of flight time limits (which is being heavily lobbied by the RAA) in the bud, then there will be no "perfect storm", and we'll get flooded with ab initio pilots in the U.S., all willing to work for even less than what starting wages are now, 2 or 3 years out of High School.

 

[BOOZENEWS]

Which is why every, single pilot needs to contact their Congressional and Senatorial representatives and push the support of HR 3371. The FAA is pushing their version of the ATP for airline flying requirement, as well as higher flight times for Commercial certificates, but creating the loophole that will lead to Ab Initio when things get tight again for the airlines.

HR3371 eliminates the loophole - it's a rider on the main bill.

www.house.gov
www.senate.gov


If we don't nip the FAA version of flight time limits (which is being heavily lobbied by the RAA) in the bud, then there will be no "perfect storm", and we'll get flooded with ab initio pilots in the U.S., all willing to work for even less than what starting wages are now, 2 or 3 years out of High School.

Wait a second--aren't the payrates higher at most of the foreign carriers than they are at the US airlines. Last time I checked, most of the Foreign Majors were hiring US pilots to counteract a pilot shortage over there--not the other way around.

We are actually the ones exerting downward pressure of they're wages. China, India, etc can't turn out enough pilots in their own homeland to meet the growing demand for air travel over there so it is silly to think that they will flood our market and lower the bar.

 

[BOOZENEWS]

Which is why every, single pilot needs to contact their Congressional and Senatorial representatives and push the support of HR 3371. The FAA is pushing their version of the ATP for airline flying requirement, as well as higher flight times for Commercial certificates, but creating the loophole that will lead to Ab Initio when things get tight again for the airlines.

HR3371 eliminates the loophole - it's a rider on the main bill.

www.house.gov
www.senate.gov


If we don't nip the FAA version of flight time limits (which is being heavily lobbied by the RAA) in the bud, then there will be no "perfect storm", and we'll get flooded with ab initio pilots in the U.S., all willing to work for even less than what starting wages are now, 2 or 3 years out of High School.

Which version looks like it has the best chance of passing? Is there a website where I can track the progress of each version? Thanks