Why there's a good chance of a future pilot shortage

[Penguin46]

It's all market driven

Crosspost from the Regionals

Seems as though every month or so, someone starts a thread either here or at the Majors section about talk of a future pilot shortage with age 65 guys retiring in Dec 2012.


Your thoughts?

The free market will supply the airlines with pilots. If they get short; then the salaries will rise until demand is met. As long as there is amble supply, airlines should try to lower salaries until they reach an equilibrium.

With technology, the skill set involved is more of a systems manager vice a good stick and rudder guy (or gal). The training, with the modern sim technology, makes training time minimal and quality even better.

 

[Lear70]

With technology, the skill set involved is more of a systems manager vice a good stick and rudder guy (or gal). The training, with the modern sim technology, makes training time minimal and quality even better.

Not.

First, it's versus, not vice.

And that's the problem, when you take someone who did great in the sim with low time and low experience, put them in the airplane, and throw them a curveball, you'd better hope the "good stick and rudder guy (or gal)" is in the left seat to save their collective butts.

Quality has suffered as a direct result of reliance on technology. I've seen it for years now, we call them "children of the magenta" and they're the worst pilots coming out of the system I've ever seen. A few are naturally good stick and rudder pilots and do fine. The rest are, indeed, systems managers and they can't fly their way out of a paper bag...

They'll do just fine until something major happens, then they'll be lucky to survive it. Give me a high-time, good stick-and-rudder pilot any day of the week when the sh*t hits the fan...

/rant

 

[Penguin46]

I'm still sticking with vice meaning "subordate to"

Not.

First, it's versus, not vice.

And that's the problem, when you take someone who did great in the sim with low time and low experience, put them in the airplane, and throw them a curveball, you'd better hope the "good stick and rudder guy (or gal)" is in the left seat to save their collective butts.

Quality has suffered as a direct result of reliance on technology. I've seen it for years now, we call them "children of the magenta" and they're the worst pilots coming out of the system I've ever seen. A few are naturally good stick and rudder pilots and do fine. The rest are, indeed, systems managers and they can't fly their way out of a paper bag...

They'll do just fine until something major happens, then they'll be lucky to survive it. Give me a high-time, good stick-and-rudder pilot any day of the week when the sh*t hits the fan...

/rant

I'm still sticking with "vice" meaning "subordate to."

I agree with your other comments. But from strickly a supply and demand standpoint; I don't see a shortage coming under the current system of producing airline pilots.

As far as pilot quality, that is another issue. That is not driven by the market. An informed consumer might be able to make a distinction in quality; but most consumers follow the trail of the lowest fare. This rewards the lowest airline operating cost model. Much work needs to be done in this area to make the consumer aware. Caveat Emptor.

 

[Lear70]

I'm still sticking with "vice" meaning "subordate to."

Subordinate.

I agree with your other comments. But from strickly a supply and demand standpoint; I don't see a shortage coming under the current system of producing airline pilots.

Strictly.

We'll see... At the Regional level? I'm betting on it in about 7-9 years.

As far as pilot quality, that is another issue. That is not driven by the market. An informed consumer might be able to make a distinction in quality; but most consumers follow the trail of the lowest fare. This rewards the lowest airline operating cost model. Much work needs to be done in this area to make the consumer aware. Caveat Emptor.

Agreed. It simply sounded like you were arguing that training could be substituted for experience from your "high quality" simulator instruction comment when nothing could be further from the truth.

Glad to know I just read it differently than you intended it.