Where will the regionals be 5 years from now?

[ILStoMinimums]

I think it will be much better 5 years from now than today. They will be bigger, stronger, and be flying more routes. I see the pay getting better too. Expect cockpit-crew pay to be close to what mainline pilots used to make a few years ago.

At ERAU, I took some aviation business courses there. This is just a bad economy right now. My professors told us that the airline industry is cyclical and this is to be expected. The industry has hit rock bottom and there is no way to go but up. I'm excited and optimistic. Hopefully, I'm not too far from a job at a regional.

I also think you will see bigger regional jets. Possibly in the 120-150 seater range. The majors will still be around, but flying mostly international and transcontinental routes. Almost all of the domestic flying wil be done by regional airlines. In fact, I'm confident that they will grow and become the new trunk carriers.

36 years from now when I retire, I think I will look back on a well earned and very prosperous airline career. These regionals will also be reclassified as majors too.

I sure hope you see the real picture soon! I'm sure most of this board will tell you the same thing. Quit drinking the koolaid my friend...........

 

[WyoHerkdriver]

Riddleman is the definition of the Riddle "geek".

 

[WhiteCloud]

Ummm, Wrong! I have many friends flying for various commuters who are mid-senior RJ Captain and most of them are making close to 6 figures if not over 6 figures. This includes Comair, Willy, Mesaba and Chataqua. Get your facts straight.

Thanks for the response Rattler. Most of the AWAC Captains make around $65K and there is a pitiful 401K deal where AWAC contributes something after the 1st year but then take back a lot of the company contribution if you leave before 6 years. While it's something it is not really much of a plan. Comair, AWAC, Mesabe and Chautauqua do not offer full medical coverage and a fully company funded retirement plan that you can access after 20 years (at age 43 or so). Ask the current DEN based AWAC pilots about moving expenses and what has happened to their life and compare that to what the military offers when they move you. No comparison.

 

[KingAirKiddo]

Im joining the Navy for 4 years and want to get a prespective on how people think the regionals will be in 5 years? I plan to use my GI bill for flight training and want to land a job in the aviation field when I get out. Do you guys think this is a good idea? I dont know if I should do it while active duty though because I dont know if Id be able to stay current with 6 month deployments to sea and all. If I really like the Navy Id like to become an officer but if not I think aviation is where Id want to be when I get out. Do you guys think there will be an excess of pilots in 5 years? Do you guys see it getting better?

I think there will always be an excess of pilots. I wouldn't base my decision on trying to predict when the next "up cycle" is going to occur. There are simply too many variables at play to try to "time" things. As we saw in September 2001, the bottom can fall out with little or no warning.

As you obtain your certificates during your military service, ensure that you are doing a honest to goodness "gut check". In other words, make sure that you really love flying and are not intimidated by the increasing sophistication and challenges that each step of your training is providing. This is pretty important, because your training is only the beginning of what will be a long and very involved process of accomplishing your career goals. In short, be true to yourself.

Becoming a professional pilot is not going to be an easy process. There are many stumbling blocks along the way, but there are also many rewards. I cannot put to words the feeling that I have when it's Oh dark thirty (and I'm groggy as hell from the reduced rest overnight) and I break out on top of a cloud layer going 300 knots and the sun is just starting to peak out in the east. My fatigue melts away and I feel so alive in those moments; I just can't imagine trading all that away to sit in a cubicle for 40 hours a week. So I do what you will find yourself doing. I take the good with the bad, keep plugging away, and appreciate each moment that I am able to do exactly what I have wanted to do since I was a small child.

Thank you for your service to our country and best of luck whichever path you ultimately choose.

KAK

 

[Lord_Baltimore]

Do what you love. When you don't love it anymore, do something else. The only thing you can ever be sure of is that you can never be sure of anything; and money's just a way of keeping score.

 

[Hugh Jorgan]

I think PilotYIP was saying the next hiring boom will start on something like Oct 2nd, 2007 at around 0827 EST.

 

[FlyIllini]

Luchini -- Here's a couple nuggets of insight that you hopefully find helpful..

First off, if you're joining active duty, be sure to ask around and understand your college benefits, since a few details can mean a huge difference for you.. For example, in Illinois, people who enlist for a 4 year or greater enlistment from the state of Illinois qualify for the Illinois Veterans Grant. It pays for four years at any IL state college, which includes the U of IL and SIU flight departments. Here's the kicker... The grant pays tuition AND INCLUDES FLIGHT FEES and is separate from to your GI bill benefits (yes, you can draw both benefits at the same time). In this case, the flying is paid for & your monthly GI check is yours to do whatever you want with vice sending it directly to the school...(~$30K that you don't have to pay for) So, it pays to know what the benefits are for your area!!


Second, if you're looking toward a career as a naval aviator, here are two things to keep in mind...

1)While a lot of people talk about the stability & reliability of the military as an employer, it's not quite that simple. I'm a USAF student nearly finished with pilot training in a joint Navy flightschool & I've been seeing a lot of 10yr AF Captains & Navy Lt's getting out & going commercial. The cause is not the allure of civil aviation paychecks, it's the fact that despite our current overstretched military situation, the powers that be say that there are too many pilots -- and a whole bunch of other details-- to skip the boring stuff, just suffice it to say that you are by no means guaranteed a 20 yr retirement as an officer in the military. In fact, there's a large chance you could hit year 15 or 16 then find yourself caught in a military downsize.. (these things are cyclic, they've happened before, are happening now, and will happen again) Just keep a civilian exit strategy ready if you need it.

2) Despite the aforementioned pessimism, military flying is great experience & depending on your airframe you could find yourself logging turbine PIC a lot faster than on the civilian track. You certainly do not build TOTAL flight time at the staggering rate of CFI's and regional pilots, but you will certainly come out of your military committment with a competitive logbook that may not require a tour in the regionals, but ready for an interview with someone like Southwest or FedEx. (depends on what kind of contacts you have)

I realize that each of these points have little to nothing to do with one another, just some food for thought if you find yourself in an applicable situation. Good Luck!!

 

[B-J-J Fighter]

"I think PilotYIP was saying the next hiring boom will start on something like Oct 2nd, 2007 at around 0827 EST."

That was funny!!!!!!

 

[ILStoMinimums]

"I think PilotYIP was saying the next hiring boom will start on something like Oct 2nd, 2007 at around 0827 EST."

That was funny!!!!!!

Yes that was - LOL.

 

[pilotyip]

Sign of 2007 hiring boom

It will start in June, not Oct. Another sign of the coming hiring boom and inflation of pilot wages is the latest copy of Trade-A-Plane. Last year the Oct Trade-A-Plane only had 1 and 3/4 columns of pilot job ads. This Oct it had three columns. Why that is a doubling of job wants ads in 12 months. The good ole days like 1978, 1988, 1998 are coming are coming back. Just watch.

 

[Clyde]

It will start in June, not Oct. Another sign of the coming hiring boom and inflation of pilot wages is the latest copy of Trade-A-Plane. Last year the Oct Trade-A-Plane only had 1 and 3/4 columns of pilot job ads. This Oct it had three columns. Why that is a doubling of job wants ads in 12 months. The good ole days like 1978, 1988, 1998 are coming are coming back. Just watch.

Ah yes, the good 'ol days. Before too long, we will all be based out of Willow Run, living on a pager 24/7, and flying junk equipment all over North America for the rest of our lives. A few days off for family every few months and then back to work. If we're lucky, they'll even let us load the airplane.

Were those ads looking for people willing to fill seats at $120k/yr??

 

[JohnDoe]

Yep, I'm sure the real quality jobs are listed in trade-a-plane.......LOL



Hiring boom in 2007........? There are still going to be furloughs on the street....

 

[100LL... Again!]

I think that a lot of pilots will realize that the majors are not a realistic goal for many of them, and begin to negotiate their contracts accordingly.

In other words, "growth" will no longer be a good enough reason to forgo a crappy pay increase.

 

[KingAirKiddo]

Hopefully.

 

[SkyBoy1981]

VERY well said Surplus.