What is the Skywest Inc. Plan?

[Freebrd]

How myopic of you.

Uh oh now you're going to make Jenny look up that word!

NO!

 

[General Lee]

How myopic of you. If airline CEOs thought only a year in advance, I'd agree with you, but they don't. The idealistic vision that your parrot over and over is really just a short-term rationalization of the current industry, and in no way represents a long-term plan by anyone.

How obtuse of you. First, Consolidation has changed things. The big 3 will get bigger, and more profitable. Past changes toward your flying originated in mainline's failures, ie Bankruptcies. DL and UA going BK helped you tremendously. Well, those days seem over. Scope is becoming more restrictive because scope can't be used as a BK bargaining chip. Higher profits mean fewer concessions. Then, throw in your largest group of planes, the 50 seater. Oil sure has made it too expensive to operate. Airline CEOs want to dump them quickly, and new mainline 100 seaters (717s and A319s) are filling in. Then throw in new FAA rules about hiring and fatigue. That there is a double whammy.

So, again, Consolidation, high oil, 50 seater parking, and new FAA rules. Don't be so myopic? Riiiight. Things are a changing..... Thank God the legacies will retire 15,000 over the next decade...


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mercyful Fate]

How obtuse of you. First, Consolidation has changed things. The big 3 will get bigger, and more profitable. Past changes toward your flying originated in mainline's failures, ie Bankruptcies. DL and UA going BK helped you tremendously. Well, those days seem over. Scope is becoming more restrictive because scope can't be used as a BK bargaining chip. Higher profits mean fewer concessions. Then, throw in your largest group of planes, the 50 seater. Oil sure has made it too expensive to operate. Airline CEOs want to dump them quickly, and new mainline 100 seaters (717s and A319s) are filling in. Then throw in new FAA rules about hiring and fatigue. That there is a double whammy.

So, again, Consolidation, high oil, 50 seater parking, and new FAA rules. Don't be so myopic? Riiiight. Things are a changing..... Thank God the legacies will retire 15,000 over the next decade...


Bye Bye---General Lee

You seem to think for some dumb reason that the "big 3" will somehow remain profitable from here on out...Pull your head out of your rectum, and remember this is the airline business we are talking about here...Enjoy the profits while you can, because those days are numbered..

 

[AntiJedi]

How obtuse of you. First, Consolidation has changed things. The big 3 will get bigger, and more profitable. Past changes toward your flying originated in mainline's failures, ie Bankruptcies. DL and UA going BK helped you tremendously. Well, those days seem over. Scope is becoming more restrictive because scope can't be used as a BK bargaining chip. Higher profits mean fewer concessions. Then, throw in your largest group of planes, the 50 seater. Oil sure has made it too expensive to operate. Airline CEOs want to dump them quickly, and new mainline 100 seaters (717s and A319s) are filling in. Then throw in new FAA rules about hiring and fatigue. That there is a double whammy.

So, again, Consolidation, high oil, 50 seater parking, and new FAA rules. Don't be so myopic? Riiiight. Things are a changing..... Thank God the legacies will retire 15,000 over the next decade...


Bye Bye---General Lee

Ah, yes, but that is the CURRENT trend for the next few years while your (and everyone else's, for that matter) contract is in force, and while most of the current 50 seat fleet still operates. It's worthless to use as a measuring stick for the next 10, 20, or even 30 years, though, because neither you nor I know what's to come both in future aircraft and future world events. Past profits don't equal future results, my friend.

What made your post myopic is that you assume that the regionals are just sitting there, doing nothing, blindly accepting some sort of death-spiral fate handed down to them from the feds and your pilot contracts, but that is FAR from the truth.

 

[General Lee]

You seem to think for some dumb reason that the "big 3" will somehow remain profitable from here on out...Pull your head out of your rectum, and remember this is the airline business we are talking about here...Enjoy the profits while you can, because those days are numbered..

Ohhhhh, okay....??? Wow, no actual reasons, just blanket statements. Got any reasons why Mercy? Ah, never mind ...


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Ah, yes, but that is the CURRENT trend for the next few years while your (and everyone else's, for that matter) contract is in force, and while most of the current 50 seat fleet still operates. It's worthless to use as a measuring stick for the next 10, 20, or even 30 years, though, because neither you nor I know what's to come both in future aircraft and future world events. Past profits don't equal future results, my friend.

What made your post myopic is that you assume that the regionals are just sitting there, doing nothing, blindly accepting some sort of death-spiral fate handed down to them from the feds and your pilot contracts, but that is FAR from the truth.

Look, the Regionals are in a corner, and don't have many options. Their 50 seaters are very unpopular with the Legacy CEOs because high oil prices have made them inefficient. That's economics, and at the same time new legacy scope clauses have those 50 seaters on the way out. DL's clause exchanges 215 50 seaters to the boneyard for 70 new 70/76 seaters. That means fewer jets, and other than the new ones, no other replacements like large turboprops either. The only replacement really is 88 717s used by mainline. The days of the 50 seater, or the majority of the Regional Jets out there, are numbered.

Then throw in new rules that affect the Regionals. In the past 10 years there were plenty of 250 hour wonders coming out of UND or wherever, and that helped feed the Regionals growth. Unlimited supply it seemed. Now, that is changing. Not only is it more expensive to go to those Universities or even do it privately (especially in a downturn), but the GOVT raised the requirements. 1500 min unless you go to an approved (expensive) facility, and even 800 hours isn't easy to get. Next throw in fatigue rules that hamper super efficiency, something Regionals and Major partners count on.

And again, the Independence Air experiment was important. If you decide to go on your own, you lose all the "freebees" that you had with your legacy partner, like advertising, reservations, etc. Those are huge costs, and then you find yourself competing against all 3 legacies, and a bunch of LCCs that don't want the competition either. Consolidation has fortified the playing field. That was the point, less competition makes the remaining industry stronger. The big 3 and a few LCCs have strengthened their hubs, and are making huge profits. And, everyone is watching to make sure the Regionals stay in line. Look at Comair in the US, Eurowings in Germany, etc. Both were dismantled when the Legacy partner needed to dump regional lift.

Consolidation has also occurred in the Regionals as well. SKW buying up ASA and Expressjet. Endeavor, the combo of PNCL, Mesaba, and Colgan. Republic owns a bunch too. The big Regionals are trying to scramble to keep any mainline feed they can.

Look at Legacy profits. The Legacies with lower profits have lately been the ones relying more on 50 seaters. The one who is dumping 50 seat lift, had a $1.37 BILLION quarterly profit. Do you think the other legacy CEOs are watching?


So, I am hoping that 15,000 upcoming retirements pick up the majority of the Regional pilots who want to go to the Legacies. If there weren't that many upcoming retirements, it would have been really interesting. That is not myopic. Sure, things could change tomorrow, and Mars could attack too.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[badog]

In UA's case, regionals fly 55% of their domestic route structure, delta's narrow body fleet is getting replaced not added to right ? Not growth aircraft !
Face it, not too many pilots want to wait 5 or more years to get hired or sit reserve for the the next 15 years. Regionals will be around for a while as long as mainline pilots won't fly little jets for a c scale.

 

[XPOO]

Look, the Regionals are in a corner, and don't have many options. Their 50 seaters are very unpopular with the Legacy CEOs because high oil prices have made them inefficient. That's economics, and at the same time new legacy scope clauses have those 50 seaters on the way out. DL's clause exchanges 215 50 seaters to the boneyard for 70 new 70/76 seaters. That means fewer jets, and other than the new ones, no other replacements like large turboprops either. The only replacement really is 88 717s used by mainline. The days of the 50 seater, or the majority of the Regional Jets out there, are numbered.

Again, the General Lee thinks he knows what he's talking about and is way off the mark. The 50-seat aircraft are not money losers. United thought that years ago. SkyWest then took those aircraft United wanted to shed and started flying their own at-risk routes. United saw how profitable it was and instantly took it all back and resigned on the 50-seat feed. The reason the majors want to get rid of them is so they can bring in more 51-76 seat aircraft that allow for dual-class cabins since their mainline pilots wont cave on scope to have 500 50-seaters and 500 51-76 seaters. They want those regional routes to be able to accomodate the business travelers. 50-seat aircraft aren't configured to do that. If other regional airlines can't turn a profit on the 50's and SkyWest can, then that tells you more about how poorly ran some other regional airlines are. SkyWest is mainly 50 seaters, and cranked out a $48M profit last quarter. Does that sound like they are losing money? I can tell you this, though, as the majors cut their contracts on 50-seat feed, the regional airlines that can operate those aircraft on an at-risk basis (to get around scope at the majors), and do it well...are sitting so very pretty right now. Guess who has the most and is cranking out major profits on them still? Bingo. I know you hate SkyWest more than any other regional, but get used to it. They're gonna be here for a long time to come.

 

[XPOO]

And again, the Independence Air experiment was important. If you decide to go on your own, you lose all the "freebees" that you had with your legacy partner, like advertising, reservations, etc. Those are huge costs, and then you find yourself competing against all 3 legacies, and a bunch of LCCs that don't want the competition either.

Consolidation has also occurred in the Regionals as well. SKW buying up ASA and Expressjet. Endeavor, the combo of PNCL, Mesaba, and Colgan. Republic owns a bunch too. The big Regionals are trying to scramble to keep any mainline feed they can.

There is no need to go it alone. I don't even know who you are talking about. SkyWest already runs a myriad of at-risk flying for both United and Delta. And have contract provisions to do the same with American and US Airways if the opportunity arises. When you put out a quality product, Legacy airlines love the free publicity. No cost to them, just a slice of the profit pie.

Also, SkyWest did not consolidate. They bought assets. Assets that assure them their place as the largest regional feed for both United and Delta. It was a very smart move. And you'll recall that your beloved Mother Delta had to beg JA to take ASA off their hands, and they really wanted Comair to go with it.

 

[General Lee]

Again, the General Lee thinks he knows what he's talking about and is way off the mark. The 50-seat aircraft are not money losers. United thought that years ago. SkyWest then took those aircraft United wanted to shed and started flying their own at-risk routes. United saw how profitable it was and instantly took it all back and resigned on the 50-seat feed. The reason the majors want to get rid of them is so they can bring in more 51-76 seat aircraft that allow for dual-class cabins since their mainline pilots wont cave on scope to have 500 50-seaters and 500 51-76 seaters. They want those regional routes to be able to accomodate the business travelers. 50-seat aircraft aren't configured to do that. If other regional airlines can't turn a profit on the 50's and SkyWest can, then that tells you more about how poorly ran some other regional airlines are. SkyWest is mainly 50 seaters, and cranked out a $48M profit last quarter. Does that sound like they are losing money? I can tell you this, though, as the majors cut their contracts on 50-seat feed, the regional airlines that can operate those aircraft on an at-risk basis (to get around scope at the majors), and do it well...are sitting so very pretty right now. Guess who has the most and is cranking out major profits on them still? Bingo. I know you hate SkyWest more than any other regional, but get used to it. They're gonna be here for a long time to come.

Really? Tell that to RA. I can post some recent comments from conference calls that state the 50 seaters need to go. Is it profitable for UAL? It sure doesn't look like it, they have to continue to make cost cutting programs because they can't cut Regional contracts, YET.

Look, maybe future hiring for dispatchers isn't looking as great as it is for pilots. Regardless, there has been a huge shift in flying back towards mainline, and the Regionals are getting squeezed. They can't go of on their own, and they get what the Major partner dishes out to them. It's just the way it is now.


Bye Bye---General Lee