Virgin America financials.

[Andy]

Well Andy, you did say at one point there was no possible way we could have made an operational profit 4q2012. Yet, here we are. Is it possible you don't have all of the financial inner workings of VX? Also, is it possible he uses the VA abbreviation with friends and family because it is easier and it just slipped on the forum here?

Wrong.

$15-30M operating profit. It's a wide range because I'm basing my CASM costs on Q3 CASM and I don't know how much variation there was from Q3 in fuel expenses.

The Q4 Form 41 DOT release date is May 14.


I really hope that VX can continue to rationally price their product; there's no reason why they can't turn a profit in the current environment. What has happened in the past is that VX has lowered prices and then everyone matches. When VX raises prices, everyone matches. And then VX cuts again and everyone matches. The better solution is to sell the seats at a profit, especially considering that they could get a lot of last minute (higher priced) bookings.

Page 3 of this thread has several of my posts: http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=152751&highlight=fares&page=3

I calculated a 78.06% Q4 load factor; it was 76.9%.
I modeled a 10.44 (Q3) CASM; it was 11.17.

The DOT released this on May 14:

Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Largest Airlines Report Smaller Net Loss in 4th Quarter of 2012

Largest airlines. The DOT hasn't included VX in largest airline.

They have included them in LCC releases:

March 12, 2012
3rd-Quarter 2011 Airline Financial Data: Network Airlines, Low-Cost Airlines and Regional Airlines All Report Profits

as an example.

That's not form 41 data. You'll find it here: http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Fields.asp?Table_ID=279
Click on 'Analysis' for each column and it brings up the form 41 data for each line.

Btw, what do you know about Peter Hunt. Does he have a reputation other than from Pinnacle and his auction rate securities debacle?

Talk to someone who was a Pinnacle during his tenure. He levered up the company and played a lot of shell games. It wasn't just one (auction rate securities) incident.

 

[Flyer1015]

It would be better job security to link all the Virgins to one.

 

[Flyer1015]

Most people here say VA to mean Virgin America in the LCC thread. Many know the code is actually VX, but just for simplicity terms people say VA. I wouldn't use this as a "a ha!" moment to dismiss someone's opinion.

 

[bri5150]

Andy,

You found it "incredibly hard to believe" in the "Delta Sea-Anc" thread.

 

[Skank]

Andy, that's why you're going to be the guy writing the book and I'm just a stupid airline captain -- you know your two letter codes! Editors love that attention to detail.

I can't wait to see your first CNBC interview... "Today we have as our guest Andy. He's a well known airline forum guru and the author of the current best seller 'Virgin?! The Not So Immaculate Conception'..."

I don't want to interrupt this discussion, but I think we need to acknowledge the quality of that potential book title. If the book is ever written, there's a damned good title.