UsAirways and EMB-190

[Taco Rocket]

You guys are both correct in stating that Mesa is a wet leasing company.

Will the gravy train soon be over? Not in the near future, in my opinion.

I think the future will look something like this: The legacies will continue to outsource their flying to lowest bidder companies, like Mesa. The majors' drawdown in domestic capacity will be replaced by international expansion, where applicable. Mesa will continue to grow at a record pace with planes like the 900, and others. So, it will be a moot point whether companies like LCC fly the 190: they won't be doing as much domestic flying as legacies anyway. And if LCC has the aircraft, their pilots will of course make a couple of bucks more than the Mesa pilots, but with less job security and at the bottom of an ever-shrinking seniority list.

At some point the market will get saturated with 900s, just like it did with the 50 seaters (maybe another 7-10 years?) JO and JO-types will then take their 900s, or bigger equipment, independent to continue their company's growth. Another cannibalistic cycle completes itself, but now JO has 100+ 90 seaters, a hot "right sized plane" for point to point flying, and starts flying under his own colors. By then these JO-types and JBLU will be all over the place with this size aircraft and put serious downward cost presssure on SWA and whoever else is left.

OK flame away.........

 

[BluDevAv8r]

The same pressures driving salaries down will also drive down QOL issues. Examples: United pre-bankruptcy pilots flew 40 hrs per month. Their business plan now says 95. Hell, I only HAVE to fly 70 here at Mesa, and 85 is the norm. Pensions - gone. Free flight bennies -- scaled back big time at most carriers. And so forth.

I agree with some of what you said but this comment needs a little clarification. UAL pilots pre-bk averaged 40 hours per month when you took the total block hours flown per year and divided it by the total number of pilots on the seniority list. Most flew much more than 40 and closer to the norm of 70ish. The 40 factors in pilots in training, on reserve, etc.

The 95 that you refer to is the max number of hours one can fly...not the average across the board. You have pulled a few numbers that you've seen in various places and used them well out of context. And I guarantee that if Mesa wanted to jack the line divisor up, you'd fly much more than 70 hours whether you like it or not. 70 is just your minimum monthly guarantee and has nothing to do with the line divisor.

-Neal

 

[Full of LUV]

That's another way it could go~

You guys are both correct in stating that Mesa is a wet leasing company.

Will the gravy train soon be over? Not in the near future, in my opinion.

I think the future will look something like this: The legacies will continue to outsource their flying to lowest bidder companies, like Mesa. The majors' drawdown in domestic capacity will be replaced by international expansion, where applicable. Mesa will continue to grow at a record pace with planes like the 900, and others. So, it will be a moot point whether companies like LCC fly the 190: they won't be doing as much domestic flying as legacies anyway. And if LCC has the aircraft, their pilots will of course make a couple of bucks more than the Mesa pilots, but with less job security and at the bottom of an ever-shrinking seniority list.

At some point the market will get saturated with 900s, just like it did with the 50 seaters (maybe another 7-10 years?) JO and JO-types will then take their 900s, or bigger equipment, independent to continue their company's growth. Another cannibalistic cycle completes itself, but now JO has 100+ 90 seaters, a hot "right sized plane" for point to point flying, and starts flying under his own colors. By then these JO-types and JBLU will be all over the place with this size aircraft and put serious downward cost presssure on SWA and whoever else is left.

OK flame away.........

No flame necessary, do you think that the CRJ90 is the future or the EMB 190 which is essentially a cheap 737-200? I think what you fail to take into account is that if mainline can operate their regional (domestic) feed at rates comparable to regionals, why do they need them? Some think the fee for departure arrangement is nearing an end. With companies in BK, everything is negotiable.

 

[sleddriver77]

.....

 

[Taco Rocket]

No flame necessary, do you think that the CRJ90 is the future or the EMB 190 which is essentially a cheap 737-200? I think what you fail to take into account is that if mainline can operate their regional (domestic) feed at rates comparable to regionals, why do they need them? Some think the fee for departure arrangement is nearing an end. With companies in BK, everything is negotiable.

The 190 will probably be a very nice aircraft. I had the opportunity to check out a MDA 170 one day, and was very impressed. I can only imagine that the 190 will be a step up.

But it's not about the aircraft type: it's about the labor costs. I just don't think that LCC or a comparable carrier can operate as cheaply as a Mesa/Chautauqua. You not only have just the pilots to consider either.

Look at the arrangement that exists today. Most places we go on the 145 are staffed by PSA or Piedmont employees, not mainline. The mx is all outsourced -- no $75,000 year mechanics in CLT to employ, rather guys making half this amount. Guys work the catering truck, and in many cases the ramp and fuel as well. The gate agents start at less than $10/hour. Everything has been reduced to a McJob. I'm not making the case that this is "right" or the way it should be --- I am merely stating facts.

Labor agreements today will not allow a bigger aircraft like the 900 or 190 to park over at the CLT E concourse where the McWages are. That's why you will see them on C, starting this week, where the labor costs mentioned above are at least double, if not triple the E concourse costs.

Mesa is parking its 900s on C but not incurring any of the higher costs. On paper this arrangement makes Mesa look incredibly profitable. It's a cannibalistic relationship, as I mentioned in the last post -- the essence of fee per departure. Any why will it continue? Because the C concourse employees think of their jobs as different or protected and will not allow it to. The two tier employee system exists not only for regional pilots, but for all regional operations, and it will be difficult if not impossible to change, even in bankruptcy. The reason why anyone even mentions the E190 specifically, in my opinion, is that it's the first "regional" airplane to so closely mimic a "mainliner."

The future of fee per departure? I think DL will use Mesa to screw Comair and its employees (see other threads). Mesa already has been used to lower costs at UA, replacing Air Whisky and ACA. New multi year contracts are in place, and while DL must reaffirm Mesa's contract, UA has already done so in the bankruptcy court. The contract with US is done: the E-145s are leaving CLT. But don't forget that the AWA contract has another 6-7 years (I think). Mesa is here to stay at LCC.