Ify2slo & Formula1: Here are some thoughts. First off, the 190 might not be much of a deal but at 40K at year, but it isn’t the kiss of death. You’d be based in Philly, so you have to sign up to live there or close by. I would not recommend commuting into Philly. A step backwards pay wise from where you are today, most likely. One of the better things about going to the 190 on the East side is a 12 month lock. I think we advertised on the West that it would be an 18 month lock (might have just been for the Capt upgrade). No FOs from the West are leaving mainline for East 190 FO billets. Anyway, after 12 months you can bid out and you could bid West 757, 737, Airbus FO if you seniority would hold it – assuming since you interviewed West, you really want West. The Million Dollar question is “what will your seniority hold one year from now.” At a minimum, you could bid East Big Jet equipment and your pay would go up 50% as you move out of the 190 (probably into reserve though). Right now, it is a gamble, but with so many East guys bypassing, the company is really in the dark. Once we go all the way down the list and nobody wants the 190, you would be on the top of the stack of new hire 190 FOs – a great deal, maybe not, but probably an ok deal, at least you could control your bids and vacation some. If in fact, large numbers of East guys bypass on big jet equipment (IE never intend to come back, or mil leave of absence) as the company works the way down and then again back up the list, it might forecast big jet and 190 jet hiring off the street in early 08. IF so, you would move out of the 190 and into big jets and be senior to some new hire (big jet dude) in mid/late 08. You might move out of the 190 and right into a line on Big Jets while the new hire stays on reserve. So many East guys have moved on and into new lives, nobody knows how many will really come back.
It is indeed a gamble but it looks like we will make money in the first quarter and the next six months should be profitable. I’d guess our combined contract will raise our wages at least 10% or so from the West standard which would be a nice increase for the East guys from where they are now. Of course we are all hoping/committed to more. Expect some large aircraft order to be announced in the next 60 days and if you are young enough, you might be able to fly it 10/15 years from now. Age 60 rule and East Retirement numbers will impact everyone’s lifestyle. Flow through, JFJ, PSA, MDA – all of those will be considered by the arbitrator (as far as the combined list) and who knows where East, West, & others will end up on the combined list. I agree any new hire will be at the end of the arbitrator’s list ... just our seniority list in the future. In the absence of any current agreed to East/West flow through agreements (no company announcements that I know of so far), I’d expect guys who come to mainline US after you (accepting the 190) would in fact be placed below you on the new list.
Hard to forecast for sure. Take stock of your personal life and if you can afford to gamble a little, leap out and take the 190. If you want to straddle the fence for a while, ok, but you would probably have to re-interview in the future. Most guys advise interviewees to take the first airline job you are offered and then springboard from there. Easier to find new work when you have work. Good luck in your decision.