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US Airways snap-back?

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At some point, do enough of the East pilots retire that there are more Westies and this crap finally gets resolved? Because obviously the status quo will not yield a solution.

That point is a long way away. And, so long as new hires continue to go east the new hires have little incentive to vote to merge the lists either since separate lists means more upward movement for them.

-Ackattacker :p
 
On an old bankrupt contract.. Yea, that's nice.
 
How long til most of the East is retired.
They continually overstate how rapid their retirements come. Here's some correct numbers:

2012 WEST 3
2012 EAST 9

2013 WEST 45
2013 EAST 150

2014 WEST 46
2014 EAST 214

2015 WEST 51
2015 EAST 184

2016 WEST 44
2016 EAST 230

2017 WEST 64
2017 EAST 239

2018 WEST 52
2018 EAST 259
 
They continually overstate how rapid their retirements come. Here's some correct numbers:

2012 WEST 3
2012 EAST 9

2013 WEST 45
2013 EAST 150

2014 WEST 46
2014 EAST 214

2015 WEST 51
2015 EAST 184

2016 WEST 44
2016 EAST 230

2017 WEST 64
2017 EAST 239

2018 WEST 52
2018 EAST 259

Those numbers are based on turning age 65, there will be some leaving before then. Also if the snap back is not won a ton will leave very quickly after that.

Whether you think so or not, most of the new hires are all about keeping things seperate for the movement. As long as that is the case, the west will never have the majority because the east operation requires more pilots.
 
Essentially, From the east:
2017 30% of the list will be retired
2022 66%
2025 82%

From the west:
2017 14%
2022 32%
2025 46%

Cumulative:
2017 24%
2022 54%
2025 69%

Granted the east has a larger # on their list, but sitting at the bottom, there would be a fairly quick upward movement over the next 10-12 years.

East currently is showing 2600 on their list.
82% of them gone by 2025 is 2150 retired in the next 14 years.
 
Those numbers are based on turning age 65, there will be some leaving before then. Also if the snap back is not won a ton will leave very quickly after that.

Whether you think so or not, most of the new hires are all about keeping things seperate for the movement. As long as that is the case, the west will never have the majority because the east operation requires more pilots.


I have also heard the theory, that if the Arbitration for the pay is won, there will be alot leaving soon after also. The thinking behind that is, many individuals with 1000+ hours in their sick banks. If pay arbitration is awarded, their sick hours get a 20-40/hour increase in value. Hence be able to medical out for a year as a bridge to medicare and they are done.....
 
Show me another list where, if hired this year, you will be in the top 500-1000 in 15 years out of 2600+ pilots?
 
Nicolau was aware of the projected retirement numbers. He stated, "...it cannot be disputed that there were differences in the financial condition of both carriers and that US Airways was the weaker. This necessarily means that career expectations differed and that US Airways pilots had more to gain from the merger than their new colleagues."

So you can harp on those numbers all you like but they're only part of the picture of what Nicolau used to make his decision.
 
Show me another list where, if hired this year, you will be in the top 500-1000 in 15 years out of 2600+ pilots?

Until a few years from now when they buy republic. :)

I do agree with you though, baring another buyout or merger your not moving faster anywhere else and The QOL has to better than these regionals.
 
Nicolau was aware of the projected retirement numbers. He stated, "...it cannot be disputed that there were differences in the financial condition of both carriers and that US Airways was the weaker. This necessarily means that career expectations differed and that US Airways pilots had more to gain from the merger than their new colleagues."

So you can harp on those numbers all you like but they're only part of the picture of what Nicolau used to make his decision.

I think I saw your dog fly over my house yesterday :laugh:
 
And I believe the 9th stated, simply non use of the NIC does not in itself constitute a DFR against the union.

DFR (when you finally have the right time to file as such) is a fairly high hurdle to cross. And past actions in Wake's court room has no bearing any more in future filings....So have fun.
 
Until a few years from now when they buy republic. :)

I do agree with you though, baring another buyout or merger your not moving faster anywhere else and The QOL has to better than these regionals.


Yes, if you think about it. As a new hire on the east this year and next, why would you want a combined contract???? In 10 yrs or so, you'll be in the top 10% of the seniority list, enjoying a much better QOL and especially pay (if you were a Reg. F/O and even capt. in most cases)

The biggest factor being the QOL differences between here and the regionals.
 
And I believe the 9th stated, simply non use of the NIC does not in itself constitute a DFR against the union.
No, they didn't say that. They said the case wasn't ripe yet without ruling on the case's merit. Read the complaint from the company's suit for declaratory judgment and see what they think.
 
I see the bottom feeders out East are buying USAPA's updates 100%! Do yourself a favor and go outside the USAPA box or you will be calling CIRP in the near future once again and asking what happen, the updates were so positive!
 
Read the first red highlights. Seems to me it says, even if the proposal is not the NIC, that in itself does not work the disadvantages the Plaintiffs fear.

What's the line mean to you?


[8] Plaintiffs seek to escape this conclusion by framing
their harm as the lost opportunity to have a CBA implementing
the Nicolau Award put to a ratification vote. Because
merely putting a CBA effectuating the Nicolau Award to a
ratification vote will not itself alleviate the West Pilots furloughs,
Plaintiffs have not identified a sufficiently concrete
injury.2 Additionally, USAPA’s final proposal may yet be one
that does not work the disadvantages Plaintiffs fear, even if
that proposal is not the Nicolau Award.3


3. We do not address the thorny question of the extent to which the
Nicolau Award is binding on USAPA. We note, as the district court recognized, that USAPA is at least as free to abandon the Nicolau Award as was
its predecessor, ALPA. The dissent appears implicitly to assume that the
Nicolau Award, the product of the
internal rules and processes of ALPA,
is binding on USAPA. See Diss op. at 8021-22.

Indeed, the Supreme Court case that clarified that the DFR
was applicable during contract negotiations articulated its
holding in terms that imply a claim can be brought only after
negotiations are complete and a “final product” has been
reached. See Air Line Pilots Ass’n, Int’l v. O’Neill, 499 U.S.
65, 78 (1991) (“[T]he final product of the bargaining process
may constitute evidence of a breach of duty only if it can be
fairly characterized as so far outside a ‘wide range of reasonableness,’
that it is wholly ‘irrational’ or ‘arbitrary.’ ” (quoting
Ford Motor Co. v. Huffman, 345 U.S. 330, 338 (1953))).

[5] We conclude that this case presents contingencies that
could prevent effectuation of USAPA’s proposal and the
accompanying injury. At this point, neither the West Pilots
nor USAPA can be certain what seniority proposal ultimately
will be acceptable to both USAPA and the airline as part of
a final CBA. Likewise, it is not certain whether that proposal
will be ratified by the USAPA membership as part of a new,
single CBA. Not until the airline responds to the proposal, the
parties complete negotiations, and the membership ratifies the
CBA will the West Pilots actually be affected by USAPA’s
seniority proposal — whatever USAPA’s final proposal ultimately
is. Because these contingencies make the claim speculative,
the issues are not yet fit for judicial decision.


As to what the company thinks??? I'm sure their thinking will change upon the outcome of the LOA 93 grievance. If they win, their thinking will stay the same, in order to keep the lower pay scale on the east. If they lose, I'm sure there will be some clamoring to negotiate something....
 
Reading comprehension 101. I believe the original question was somebody looking to come here. And all the numbers posted the rhetoric to go with it, was stating that someone hired here this year. Hence, so all the retirements would be ahead of him.

Even someone in the middle of the list. 50-80% retirement rate in the next 10+ years, I don't care who you are, it's going to improve your QOL.....

I mean really, current bid shows 2600 active line pilots, Last seniority list I have seen Oct 09 shows 3494 Company seniority and 3463 Current seniority. This includes all mgmt LOA and Meds.

By 2025, there are 2700 retirements on the east. So obviously inside of there is some management types and MEDs etc......but essentially 2025 you have a mighty big churn of the seniority list no matter where you sit on it.

Even looking at just 10 years out 2022. 1993 retirements. 2600 pilots flying the line...3494 on current list. Or 57% of current seniority list or 76% or current on the line. So your best guess is somewhere between those two numbers.

Now explain to me why a new hire would want an extra 1800 pilots put on top of him? Before you mention the pay difference. Here's the year by year break down for Grp II (737 / 320)

2 6.00
3 7.00
4 3.00
5 8.00
6 8.00
7 7.00
8 6.00
9 6.00
10. 5.00

Or roughly 56k in 10 years, or 5600/year the west if paid more. BUT a new hire without a combined list will have what 2000 extra pilots below him at the end of that 10 years. To make up that difference of 5600/year at a low estimate average pay rate of 70.00/hr They would have to fly about an average of 8hours above rsv guarantee a month to make that difference up. I think the QOL of 2000 pilots below them at the end of 10 years far outweighs that 5600/year average pay diffference

But if they can hold 75 somewhere in there US pays more by this differential

2 4.00
3 3.00
4 9.00
5 4.00
6 3.00
7 6.00
8 7.00
9 7.00
10 9.00
 
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Read the first red highlights. Seems to me it says, even if the proposal is not the NIC, that in itself does not work the disadvantages the Plaintiffs fear.

What's the line mean to you?
Nothing. The court overturned the case based on ripeness, not merit. They made no ruling on the merits of the case.
As to what the company thinks??? I'm sure their thinking will change upon the outcome of the LOA 93 grievance.
I don't see the connection between the grievance and the seniority list. I fully expect the company to win but just for the sake of discussion if they lost I'd expect them to go through bankruptcy again to mitigate it.
 
Read the first red highlights. Seems to me it says, even if the proposal is not the NIC, that in itself does not work the disadvantages the Plaintiffs fear.

What's the line mean to you?


Additionally, USAPA’s final proposal may yet be one
that does not work the disadvantages Plaintiffs fear, even if
that proposal is not the Nicolau Award.3

To me it means: The courts assume that USAPA is wise enough to submit a seniority proposal that does not disadvantage the west like the "DOH without adjustment for LOS dream list" that they already presented to the company.

Fortunately, USAPA is too arrogant to compromise on their "dream list", therefore making DFR II unquestionably ripe.
 
Pay is just a small part of the nightmare called LOA 93. Have you seen the work rules, vacation and forced 95 hour months. If a flight is canceled out East, hope a nice trip is in open time or there goes your pay! Seperate ops is not a solution for USAPA to avoid the NIC., but the WEST and the company will one day get to a joint contract with or without EAST participation, I'm betting on BK.
 
Yup. that cancellation pay thing. Doesn't quite work THAT bad, had a 3 day, flew 6 hours of it, got paid 16 hours + 4 hours on top of guarantee. Not a bad 3 day trip. Nope Nope, not looking for open time to pick up...

Vacation, well that was a sell out by ALPA....don't get me started on that thinking.

Forced 95 hours??? Nope...never been forced to fly 95. Most guys, even during 95 hour months, seem to fly around 80 hours a month....maybe 85. Quite a few like to go down further than that....
 
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They ain't declaring bankrupcy because of losing this pay grievance or that. Come on now, chillrens. Be sensible!
 
ALPA National sold you out on a vacation proposal? I call BS on that.

Why is it always someone else's fault with you guys?

Local ALPA and their national advisors. 2nd bk, they had to give the company relief of items to save the company money.

One of things given back was Vacation for those 8 yrs and under. WOW what a cost savings the company received from that 0 dollars. There wasn't anyone on property with less than 8 yrs at that time, BUT ALPA goons gave it away!??! Why? Advisors obviously costed out the proposals...no? peanut butter jars on and off the shelf.

So essientially, once again... ALPA / National / Senior...sold out those jr.
 
Local ALPA and their national advisers. 2nd bk, they had to give the company relief of items to save the company money.

One of things given back was Vacation for those 8 yrs and under. WOW what a cost savings the company received from that 0 dollars. There wasn't anyone on property with less than 8 yrs at that time, BUT ALPA goons gave it away!??! Why? Advisers obviously costed out the proposals...no? peanut butter jars on and off the shelf.

So (essentially), once again... ALPA / National / Senior...sold out those jr.


YOUR senior pilots sold out guys who hadn't been hired yet in an effort to save their pensions. You played a gamble and lost. Stop blaming ALPA national for your own failings.
 
No you D** Sh*** those guys had been hired....thank you.

No wonder AW was where it was.....comprehension of 4th graders...
 
YOU wrote:

Local ALPA and their national advisors. 2nd bk, they had to give the company relief of items to save the company money.

One of things given back was Vacation for those 8 yrs and under. WOW what a cost savings the company received from that 0 dollars. There wasn't anyone on property with less than 8 yrs at that time, BUT ALPA goons gave it away!??! Why? Advisors obviously costed out the proposals...no? peanut butter jars on and off the shelf.

So essientially, once again... ALPA / National / Senior...sold out those jr.

I replied:

YOUR senior pilots sold out guys who hadn't been hired yet in an effort to save their pensions. You played a gamble and lost. Stop blaming ALPA national for your own failings.

You responded:

No you D** Sh*** those guys had been hired....thank you.

No wonder AW was where it was.....comprehension of 4th graders...

I guess I'm a little confused about your definition of "comprehension". Were they hired or not? It is comforting to know that in classic style, when you can't argue a point, you go straight for classy language. You guys are so predictable. What's next, storm off? Accuse me of RICO?

I think where AWA "was" actually happened to be a pretty sweet position; Able to buy a washed up, bankrupt legacy carrier for pennies on the dollar. If that's your idea of a criticism, I'll take it.

Stay classy, East pilots. :laugh:
 
Pay is just a small part of the nightmare called LOA 93. Have you seen the work rules, vacation and forced 95 hour months. If a flight is canceled out East, hope a nice trip is in open time or there goes your pay! Seperate ops is not a solution for USAPA to avoid the NIC., but the WEST and the company will one day get to a joint contract with or without EAST participation, I'm betting on BK.

You need to go back and read it again. You are so far off base, it's pathetic.
 
you see this thing called 9/11 happened. forced airlines into BK, etc. with this BK unions were forced into negotiating concessionary contracts. Part of this fall out was also lots of pilots were furloughed.

After the furloughs, and the contracts were being hammered out....some airlines had their bottom guys with 12+ years of seniority. company wants immediate cost relief. ALPA advisors figure that by giving relief in the range of year 1-8 would save the company X amount of dollars. Only problem here, is there wasn't anyone active on the seniority list in that year range. A few years later, recalls start. That is when the company started saving money on that vacation. They were not new hires, they were recalls.

Pre 9/11 AWA was a pretty sweet place???? You've been in the desert sun for too long. Post 9/11 AWA was about the only place hiring around 2002/03 I believe. And guys at that point for basically looking for any job they could. AWA happened to have someone, with gov't financing, who was able to take a short term advantage to the cut backs the majors had gone through........
 
Nothing. The court overturned the case based on ripeness, not merit. They made no ruling on the merits of the case.
I don't see the connection between the grievance and the seniority list. I fully expect the company to win but just for the sake of discussion if they lost I'd expect them to go through bankruptcy again to mitigate it.

Not really sure either, just rumor mill stuff. As LOA 93 could come back as a win, but possible that it could be an answer of. Pilots right...Company wrong, now you two sit together and figure out how you want to right this, you have 90 days.

I.E. some have said, arbitrator can come back in favor of pilots, with no specific remedy, and tell the two parties to come to an agreeable remedy, or he will make a decision in 90 days. So in those 90 days, it would be kinda the pilots with a little bit of leverage as Parker crunches the numbers on those pay scales. Could be alot of horse trades happening.

Like I said though, just rumor mill stuff
 

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