Sean;
I've posted this here and US Aviation board before. We have a small percentage of pilots that live in the East (one CA and three FO's that I know of specifically in the DCA/IAD/BWI area) that would likely take an East base. I am a commuter from the mid-West, so I would give an East base a shot for an upgrade.
Many, many AWA pilots are firmly ensconsed in the desert lifestyle and would not commute East for an upgrade.
That said, I predict that you would see about less than 7 - 8% of AWA pilots bid East for a CA-CA swap, or FO upgrade (about 126 pilots or so, tops). By the same token there will be some AAA West coast pilots that would love to shorten the commute time for quality of life. My guess...40-50 East moving West. A net loss of East CA seats of 86 or so (remember, these are just an educated guess).
So, the approximately 86 seats that I describe are being held hostage by the East MEC in an attempt to "vacate the Nicolau award". In the meantime, the East pilots are losing hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of dollars in wages, benefits, and additional vacation days.
Oh, did I mention that there is finally a vacancy bid for 49 CA slots in the West. Not moving as fast as the East, but it's a start!
The East MEC is focusing on the wrong prize, a CA would be nice....but I can go without that for MONEY, schedule, MONEY, time off, MONEY, better benefits, MONEY, and oh yes....MONEY.