I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I don't see United going away any time soon, but I don't see a merger in the next few years either. When I try to put myself in the heads of the CAL management (scary place to be), I think to myself what would I do, and why have I done what I have already done. Lets see,
1. Furlough 147 guys and hold them hostage - that makes no sense because as a stand alone carrier, it seems almost impossible that they could keep us out until the next contract.
2. Underfund the pensions, talk about having no contractual responsibility to offer a lump sum - i guess that makes some sense, try to scare some more expensive guys into taking early retirement like they should have done when there was an incentive. Getting warmer
3. Join the Star Alliance and evaluate the benefits of the antitrust immunity with UAL and Lufthansa over the next couple of years. If the benefits allow for competition against the new Delta, great - no headaches of a merger, no costs associated with putting an apple and an orange together, and no pissed off labor unions who will cost me tons of money by making it a headache and a half to join together. If the benefits are not realized, then merge the companies out of desparation to compete - and have access to once again functioning and open capital markets to make that happen.
The guys upstairs with nice suits, big bank accounts, and nice cars turned down the chance at a merger with an administration that would have certainly approved it, and at a time when there was still somewhat reasonable access to the capital that would fund that deal. I don't know why they turned it down, we can all speculate, and that is all it will ever be. Why would they turn around now and try to push a deal through? That would be totally foolish, and dumber things have been done. However, despite many smaller decisions that I don't agree with, I think our management team has been pretty good at the bigger picture items - 757 to smaller European destinations, fuel efficiency, blah blah. I am not too happy that they placed me on the street, but I think most would agree that they have (at least from a business perspective) run a pretty good ship the past few years. Thats my 2 cents, and I am starting to count the cents in my bank account, those unemployment checks just aren't funding my whiskey habits like they should!
