We (CAL) cannot enter into a Joint Venture with United until current contract language is changed. With that in mind, I am very sure that the only changes to our current scope that would be approved would be ones that protect our interests.
I am not interested in a CAL verses UAL game, but I am even less interested in merging with a company that has relatively old airplanes and no new ones on order. In fact whipsawing in this industry will always take place - in contract negotiations (we have to stay cheap to grow), in ticket price wars between the airlines, in putting senior pilots against junior pilots, and so on. Until there is a national seniority list and pilots are free to move from one airline to another, airline management ultimately will always hold the power over the pilot groups.
As far as mergers go, someone please explain what CAL has to gain from a merger now that we will be part of the Star Alliance and will be milking the alliance with all the airlines approved under the antri-trust immunity. What exactly would UAL have to offer us? I would guess the first answer would be the Asian routes. Ten years ago, I would agree with that. However, with the whole "open skies" mentality of the world, I doubt very seriously that the once coveted and limited routes of the past will be that difficult to gain access to. To do that, CAL needs two things - west coast presence (which we don't have now but will have via the alliance with UAL and airplanes to fly those routes - we have plenty of orders for those). So, from a business perspective it makes perfect sense what the CAL management is trying to do. We pretty much get most of the gain out of the alliance with UAL without all the added costs and labor nightmares. However, if for some reason the antitrust immunity is not approved, I would bet everything on a merger shortly thereafter. CAL and UAL would both need each other in that case, and I am sure it would happen. Anyways, just my opinion.