Ugly and Unexpected Attrition at Horizon

[ReverseSensing]

70 new-hires, now through Spring 08 to deal with the just-discovered (by management) fact that "the industry is recovering and it appears the hiring slump of post 2001 is definitely over."

Ya think?

 

[pilotyip]

Pay or loose'em

June of 2007 hiring boom is here, as a result of the growing world wide pilot shortage. Predicted here in Sept of 2003. That is why we start our a DA-20 F/O's at $35K with $1.83/hr per-diem, keeps our classes full.

 

[ReverseSensing]

June of 2007 hiring boom is here, as a result of the growing world wide pilot shortage. Predicted here in Sept of 2003. That is why we start our a DA-20 F/O's at $35K with $1.83/hr per-diem, keeps our classes full.

I should have considered the law of unintended consequences: Any mention of attrition or pilot shortages and pilotyip will come out of nowhere to swoop in and flesh out your thread.

High attrition would seem like great news, except that half the attrition is from the bottom third of the seniority list. Doesn't really bring the upgrade time to below half a damn decade (not that I personally care that much).

 

[DrewBlows]

I should have considered the law of unintended consequences: Any mention of attrition or pilot shortages and pilotyip will come out of nowhere to swoop in and flesh out your thread.

You have to give him credit though. He's the first person in the history of flightinfo to ever predict anything correctly. You giving stock tips Yip?

 

[sqwkvfr]

You have to give him credit though. He's the first person in the history of flightinfo to ever predict anything correctly. You giving stock tips Yip?

I agree...the man has a right to toot his horn....he was bang on.

 

[ualdriver]

What good is a "pilot shortage" if entry level flying positions (for the most part) still pay only around $20,000 per year at the regionals? What good is this "pilot shortage" if airlines like Skybus, Virgin, etc., can adequately staff their narrowbody operations with substandard wages?

I'll believe there is a serious pilot shortage when the following happen:

1) Any narrowbody operation flying modern, $30M narrowbody jets find it absolutely impossible to staff their airline unless they offer a very competitive wage (hint: 60 or 90 bucks an hour for an A320/A319 Captain is not anything resembling competitive).

2) Regional airlines are parking RJ's en masse because they can find no one willing to work for their poverty level entry wages. Major airlines are forced to renegotiate their contracts with their respective regional carriers to account for the increased costs of paying their professional pilots professional wages or risk losing large amounts of feed.

3) Service to small communities is drastically reduced because there's no one to fly the planes that normally services these small cities. Stories such as these make front page of the USA Today and spur Congressional attention.

4) Entry level wages at just about any job that would be considered "entry level" for a pilot pays enough to service the reasonable cost of the debt one incurs choosing a professional pilot career.

Until the above happens, it matters not one bit if there is a "pilot shortage" or not. What does it matter if one exists if pilots cannot enjoy the fruits of being on the "good side" of the pilot supply and demand equation for once?

 

[SpyFlysDOTs]

UAL driver,

I have always thought the indication of a pilot shortage, I start getting postcards in the mail from airlines ASKING me to attend class or interviews.
They all have the ATP database, and if I can get these cards from competitive AMEs, then if airlines are truly short, they will start to arrive from other airlines.

 

[Heavy Set]

June of 2007 hiring boom is here, as a result of the growing world wide pilot shortage. Predicted here in Sept of 2003. That is why we start our a DA-20 F/O's at $35K with $1.83/hr per-diem, keeps our classes full.

Who wants to fly old Falcon 20s out of Detoilet (YIP) at all hours of the night to garden spots like TOL, ELP, and Juarez? Sign me up!

 

[CFI2766]

Who wants to fly old Falcon 20s out of Detoilet (YIP) at all hours of the night to garden spots like TOL, ELP, and Juarez? Sign me up!

WHoa. KELP is awesome. Ever been to Griggs Mexican Restaurant? They've got an autographed picture of the shuttle Columbia from the original crew of Young and Crippen. Space history, man.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

We're getting there on the pilot shortage.

Mesa is starting a deal where they pay you back your training costs (PPL/Comm/Inst) if you stay a certain length of time. Ab-initio is next.

Lots of flights ARE being cancelled, and the majors are losing feed PAX in their hubs.

USAJet RARELY flies to either TOL or Juarez, and we never stay overnight there. Sometimes we're overnight in ELP. Sometimes we're also overnight in OAK, LAX, PDX, PHX, MCI, etc., etc. We don't stay in Mexico unless something breaks or you're flying a vacation trip-then we might stay in Cabo or the Bahamas for a week.

cliff
ABQ