UAL to not make it through the Winter???

[Wildmanny]

Guys:

I'm NOT trying to stir up a hornet's nest or pi$$ in anyone's Cheerios. Please don't take it that way. I don't want this to happen and am not advocating a position either way.

I'm just wondering if anyone else is hearing this. Yesterday, I had a talk with a bud about consolidation in the industry vis a vis DAL and NWA and the topic turned to UAL and whether they will make it at all. His theory was that they shouldn't and I disagreed simply on a jobs front. We were talking about UAL having to pledge spare parts as collateral for their loan covenants and I thought that definitely didn't sound good. He said that he is hearing that Lufthansa and others are hovering around trying to figure out which parts they want, planes, routes, ops, gates, systems, etc.

So what is the scoop over there? Is there a load factor issue? Is there no money or advance bookings to make through the Winter? Are there rumors of parting out the company?

Just wondering. No flamebait. Best of luck to all the UAL bros and buds that I have over there. This industry is proving to be a mother!

WM

 

[St. Nic]

UAL followed by LCC- maybe some kind of amalgamation, but with tight credit these days and junk debt unappetizing on Wall Street I would doubt anyone would pony up cash to save either company. The parts of either company are worth more than the whole. We'll see what happens, but I seriously doubt UAL makes it through the winter. LCC, maybe, maybe not.

 

[WayBack]

So you and your friend had a conversation. He has a theory about UAL and now you think it's going to come true?
UAL will not be going anywhere. They will rape and pillage the employees before they shut the place down, and the employees will take it.

 

[BeachBummer]

So you and your friend had a conversation. He has a theory about UAL and now you think it's going to come true?
UAL will not be going anywhere. They will rape and pillage the employees before they shut the place down, and the employees will take it.

You can't rape the willing some would argue... It's a bum situation over there. Dreams built and destroyed in one foul swoop.

Good Luck

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

Y'all forget who's the president...

 

[Lampshade]

Chicago based airline with thousands of employees. They will be supported politically and deals will be made to ensure survival, in one form or another.

 

[Jar Jar]

You've got some big-ol' political theory *there*, who knows what *they're* going to do with United. Maybe UAL will be bailed-out to ensure *their* survival.

 

[gutshotdraw]

A short time from now in a galaxy far too close:

"I drove my Government Motors clunker to the airport but it broke down halfway there. Caught a taxi the rest of the way. The cap and trade energy surcharge was more than my last paycheck. After a full interrogation of my business and political affiliation (good thing I voted Democrat and signed the petition for President-for-Life Obama) I boarded my Untied Obama Airlines flight but it ran off the runway because of lousy maintenance. There were dozens of cut and bleeding passengers taken to the local hospital but a few bled to death waiting for the Obamacare bureaucrat to sign some paperwork and find a doctor since most of them quit. Guess I'll go back to my cardboard cottage and worship my picture of Big Brother Barry."

HE will save United no matter what. Count on it.

 

[ATRCAPT]

A short time from now in a galaxy far too close:

"I drove my Government Motors clunker to the airport but it broke down halfway there. Caught a taxi the rest of the way. The cap and trade energy surcharge was more than my last paycheck. After a full interrogation of my business and political affiliation (good thing I voted Democrat and signed the petition for President-for-Life Obama) I boarded my Untied Obama Airlines flight but it ran off the runway because of lousy maintenance. There were dozens of cut and bleeding passengers taken to the local hospital but a few bled to death waiting for the Obamacare bureaucrat to sign some paperwork and find a doctor since most of them quit. Guess I'll go back to my cardboard cottage and worship my picture of Big Brother Barry."

HE will save United no matter what. Count on it.

That would be hilarious if it wasn't so true...

 

[bluechunks]

Y'all forget who's the president...

Good point.

Of course, JetBlue mortgaged all it's spare parts back in 2006 or 2007 so it might not mean much either. The entire industry is a bag of hurt, and UAL's core financial ratios are not not terribly different than the rest of the industry. And surprisingly UAL is even better in some areas.

UAL is clearly the 'poster child' for airline financial mismanagement, but any discussion without including the other suspects (i.e. every other major U.S. airline except SWA) is just whistling in the graveyard.

 

[Lampshade]

You've got some big-ol' political theory *there*, who knows what *they're* going to do with United. Maybe UAL will be bailed-out to ensure *their* survival.

United needs a bailout, but bailed out does not need a hyphen.

 

[luckytohaveajob]

The government won't even ground 50 SWA planes flying with illegal parts, and you think the government will allow a 90,000 employee company to be scraped?

Welcome to the United Socialist States of America, the USSA where nothing changes except the definition of change.

 

[RedDogC130]

Is it true if the company's cash position drops below a certain level then the credit card companies (or someone) can withhold money from them and then it is just a spiral down affect because that just lowers their cash position more and then the bigger amounts can be heldout....a buddy of mine at UA was saying something like this but I was not paying too much attention...now I am a bit confused about what he said....anyone know of such a thing?

 

[jmreii]

Is it true if the company's cash position drops below a certain level then the credit card companies (or someone) can withhold money from them and then it is just a spiral down affect because that just lowers their cash position more and then the bigger amounts can be heldout....a buddy of mine at UA was saying something like this but I was not paying too much attention...now I am a bit confused about what he said....anyone know of such a thing?

You have many creditors that will swoop in and close down a business if your cash balance falls below a pre-selected level that the borrower is already aware of before they sign the loan or credit extension. Typical in a business and not with just the airlines with money troubles. The trouble with the airline industry has been a history as a consistent money loser for investors whom are looking to protect themselves in case a business decides to take a powder.

 

[Sandhawk]

The government won't even ground 50 SWA planes flying with illegal parts, and you think the government will allow a 90,000 employee company to be scraped?

No, but he could allow them to be scrapped !!

 

[Abernathy]

This thread is so naive and so juvenile. "I don't mean to like, piss off anyone with a brain and a comprehension level above the 5th grade, but my buddy, who has a private pilots degree in a Cessna 172, said that United is not going to make it through the winter because 100LL is like $6.00 a gal now and Continental International Airlines serves sandwiches on all of their flights and their airplanes are like really, really clean. I'm super serialll.."

My guess is Obama will have a hard time letting such a giant employer in his home city falter.

 

[DonVerita]

A short time from now in a galaxy far too close:

"I drove my Government Motors clunker to the airport but it broke down halfway there. Caught a taxi the rest of the way. The cap and trade energy surcharge was more than my last paycheck. After a full interrogation of my business and political affiliation (good thing I voted Democrat and signed the petition for President-for-Life Obama) I boarded my Untied Obama Airlines flight but it ran off the runway because of lousy maintenance. There were dozens of cut and bleeding passengers taken to the local hospital but a few bled to death waiting for the Obamacare bureaucrat to sign some paperwork and find a doctor since most of them quit. Guess I'll go back to my cardboard cottage and worship my picture of Big Brother Barry."

HE will save United no matter what. Count on it.

You lost the election. Get over it.

 

[waveflyer]

You guys just prove how INSANE core republicans have become. Very short memories of life under your king bush. Obama hasn't even talked about UAL or any other airline. Every bailout was directly caused by the deregulation and subsequent raping of corporations- never mind the blatant government interference in employee negotiations. You all need to realize that this country needs labor every bit as much as executives and management. Either gets too much power and the economy will shut down. Everything that you crazy socialist conspiracy theorists blame Obama for was created by disfunctional republican "pro-business" policies. Things will get back in balance and we'll be fine- but don't confuse yourself- you want to blame someone but don't want to blame bush- fine. Go look in te mirror. Executives and businessmen have way more of a sense of entitlement than any worker I've met lately. And being in the airline industry- you ought to feel ashamed for continuing to buy into it.

(ahh... But you're core beliefs don't allow you to feel shame or regret or accept any responsibility at all- so keep blaming Obama for cleaning up the messes you made)

 

[RedRum]

Is it true if the company's cash position drops below a certain level then the credit card companies (or someone) can withhold money from them and then it is just a spiral down affect because that just lowers their cash position more and then the bigger amounts can be heldout....a buddy of mine at UA was saying something like this but I was not paying too much attention...now I am a bit confused about what he said....anyone know of such a thing?

I agree with your analysis there.

However, I think the point many on here are trying to make is that the government is going to come up with the loan guarantees that keep the credit card companies off United and other airlines' backs. The trouble with this sort of thinking is that we, as a nation, need to draw the line somewhere. Which airline do we prop up next? Unfortunately, this sort of thinking can only stop when there is either an administration change or the public becomes outraged (much like the health care debate in August)

United was and still can be a great airline. Good luck to everyone over there. The sooner you get those Tilton-types out of there the closer you will be to recovery. It's just too easy for these guys to blame the economy. At some point you have to start running an airline. The well is dry with regard to employee concessions. That dog don't hunt anymore.

 

[cjdriver]

They'll get approval to important cheap, foreign labor to lower costs and be competitive. Uno Taco baby!

 

[waveflyer]

That's what republicans would do

 

[Colonel Savage]

Is it true if the company's cash position drops below a certain level then the credit card companies (or someone) can withhold money from them and then it is just a spiral down affect because that just lowers their cash position more and then the bigger amounts can be heldout....a buddy of mine at UA was saying something like this but I was not paying too much attention...now I am a bit confused about what he said....anyone know of such a thing?

I believe that's what they call your classic "death spiral financing". It's a for real business practice taught at Harvard, Yale and Wharton these days. Really.

 

[Jar Jar]

United needs a bailout, but bailed out does not need a hyphen.

Damn it!

 

[Bringupthebird]

so keep blaming Obama for cleaning up the messes you made)

There was a crumb of truth in what you said. We are all cleaning up the messes left by the same folks who elected Obama- folks who ignore the reality of how broke they really are.

The audacity of hope is that people are really beginning to benefit from the clarity that comes with suffering. They are seeing that they made a grave error in supporting someone without the experience or politcal maturity to govern.

It remains to be seen whether this nation has the will to change and not merely borrow it's way back to false prosperity.

 

[densoo]

You've got some big-ol' political theory *there*, who knows what *they're* going to do with United. Maybe UAL will be bailed-out to ensure *their* survival.

They will get bailed out. Right after Christmas they'll merge with CAL, drain it of all its cash, borrow against most its hardware, sell the rest, staple all the employees to the bottom of their lists if they're lucky, then furlough everyone below the staple. Bonuses all around for the senior management, lawyers, and all the many CAL union officers who are now in management.

 

[waveflyer]

There was a crumb of truth in what you said. We are all cleaning up the messes left by the same folks who elected Obama- folks who ignore the reality of how broke they really are.

The audacity of hope is that people are really beginning to benefit from the clarity that comes with suffering. They are seeing that they made a grave error in supporting someone without the experience or politcal maturity to govern.

It remains to be seen whether this nation has the will to change and not merely borrow it's way back to false prosperity.

You mean like when your king bush increased spending, started a war, cut taxes and borrowed money from china to make up the difference?

Republicans are truly the party of irresponsibility. You can't accept that your views were proven wrong. You were wrong. It's that simple. Now all you hold onto is villifying those in power. The problem is... You spent the whole of the Clinton years doing just that. Crying wolf has it's consequences. Now- we are in power. We've reached out way more than republicans ever did. Now it's simply time to ignore your yelling. Children should be treated like children.

 

[nwaredtail]

You mean like when your king bush increased spending, started a war, cut taxes and borrowed money from china to make up the difference?

Republicans are truly the party of irresponsibility. You can't accept that your views were proven wrong. You were wrong. It's that simple. Now all you hold onto is villifying those in power. The problem is... You spent the whole of the Clinton years doing just that. Crying wolf has it's consequences. Now- we are in power. We've reached out way more than republicans ever did. Now it's simply time to ignore your yelling. Children should be treated like children.

Don't try to spew facts to the head burying, "we are safer under Bush" crowd. Remember, these are the people that watch entertainer's like Glenn Beck, Fat Ass Limbaugh, etc and think they are journalists.

 

[ATR-DRIVR]

You mean like when your king bush increased spending, started a war, cut taxes and borrowed money from china to make up the difference?

Republicans are truly the party of irresponsibility. You can't accept that your views were proven wrong. You were wrong. It's that simple. Now all you hold onto is villifying those in power. The problem is... You spent the whole of the Clinton years doing just that. Crying wolf has it's consequences. Now- we are in power. We've reached out way more than republicans ever did. Now it's simply time to ignore your yelling. Children should be treated like children.

Really??? Please show us how, oh high and mighty one...

 

[tathagatha]

yawn, republocrats!

 

[Redtailer]

Is it true if the company's cash position drops below a certain level then the credit card companies (or someone) can withhold money from them and then it is just a spiral down affect because that just lowers their cash position more and then the bigger amounts can be heldout....a buddy of mine at UA was saying something like this but I was not paying too much attention...now I am a bit confused about what he said....anyone know of such a thing?

You heard correctly. Before anyone else comments on this thread they should REALLY look at UAL's last quarterly report and balance sheet.

There are triggers around $2.2 bil $2.1 bil and lower. Each number activates a higher percentage of holdback by the credit companies. Yes, it will turn in to a death spiral because at the $2.0 bil trigger it gets really ugly (Read BK filing). FYI the reported unrestricted cash on hand was just $2.3 bil.

UAL's position is NOT common amongst the other airlines. Have you guys even seen all of the balance sheets and cash flows? UAL by far is in the worst position followed by LCC and then AMR. Everyone else is on pretty solid footing. For now.

The differences are that UAL is at least 50% upside down on their debt to equity. Very few sources for them left to raise cash. I believe they have about $1.1 bil of unlevered assests to use because no one will give them unsecured credit at this point. How fast was that cash burn rate again?

UAL tanks it is chapter 7. No credit, no plan, new rules, no management and nothing left to negotiate. Leases? Nope, no new acft since the last BK. The lessors, still smarting from the last BK, will tell them to go pound sand and send the acft overseas. The employee group? LOL. That one speaks for itself. The only thing they can cut is the current liabilities with the vendors. Not much help. No bailout. The public is already too fed up.

LCC BK will be 50-50 of a chapter 7, but if it makes it there will be a lot of pain felt by the employees and the airline will be a shadow of its former self ala TWA.

AMR is the only one that will actually benefit from the BK process. Lots of fat to trim. My sympathies to the employees if this happens, but it won't be pretty. They will be a tough competitor coming out of the other side.