UAL to not make it through the Winter???

[Wildmanny]

Guys:

I'm NOT trying to stir up a hornet's nest or pi$$ in anyone's Cheerios. Please don't take it that way. I don't want this to happen and am not advocating a position either way.

I'm just wondering if anyone else is hearing this. Yesterday, I had a talk with a bud about consolidation in the industry vis a vis DAL and NWA and the topic turned to UAL and whether they will make it at all. His theory was that they shouldn't and I disagreed simply on a jobs front. We were talking about UAL having to pledge spare parts as collateral for their loan covenants and I thought that definitely didn't sound good. He said that he is hearing that Lufthansa and others are hovering around trying to figure out which parts they want, planes, routes, ops, gates, systems, etc.

So what is the scoop over there? Is there a load factor issue? Is there no money or advance bookings to make through the Winter? Are there rumors of parting out the company?

Just wondering. No flamebait. Best of luck to all the UAL bros and buds that I have over there. This industry is proving to be a mother!

WM

 

[St. Nic]

UAL followed by LCC- maybe some kind of amalgamation, but with tight credit these days and junk debt unappetizing on Wall Street I would doubt anyone would pony up cash to save either company. The parts of either company are worth more than the whole. We'll see what happens, but I seriously doubt UAL makes it through the winter. LCC, maybe, maybe not.

 

[WayBack]

So you and your friend had a conversation. He has a theory about UAL and now you think it's going to come true?
UAL will not be going anywhere. They will rape and pillage the employees before they shut the place down, and the employees will take it.

 

[BeachBummer]

So you and your friend had a conversation. He has a theory about UAL and now you think it's going to come true?
UAL will not be going anywhere. They will rape and pillage the employees before they shut the place down, and the employees will take it.

You can't rape the willing some would argue... It's a bum situation over there. Dreams built and destroyed in one foul swoop.

Good Luck

 

[BLUE BAYOU]

Y'all forget who's the president...

 

[Lampshade]

Chicago based airline with thousands of employees. They will be supported politically and deals will be made to ensure survival, in one form or another.

 

[Jar Jar]

You've got some big-ol' political theory *there*, who knows what *they're* going to do with United. Maybe UAL will be bailed-out to ensure *their* survival.

 

[gutshotdraw]

A short time from now in a galaxy far too close:

"I drove my Government Motors clunker to the airport but it broke down halfway there. Caught a taxi the rest of the way. The cap and trade energy surcharge was more than my last paycheck. After a full interrogation of my business and political affiliation (good thing I voted Democrat and signed the petition for President-for-Life Obama) I boarded my Untied Obama Airlines flight but it ran off the runway because of lousy maintenance. There were dozens of cut and bleeding passengers taken to the local hospital but a few bled to death waiting for the Obamacare bureaucrat to sign some paperwork and find a doctor since most of them quit. Guess I'll go back to my cardboard cottage and worship my picture of Big Brother Barry."

HE will save United no matter what. Count on it.

 

[ATRCAPT]

A short time from now in a galaxy far too close:

"I drove my Government Motors clunker to the airport but it broke down halfway there. Caught a taxi the rest of the way. The cap and trade energy surcharge was more than my last paycheck. After a full interrogation of my business and political affiliation (good thing I voted Democrat and signed the petition for President-for-Life Obama) I boarded my Untied Obama Airlines flight but it ran off the runway because of lousy maintenance. There were dozens of cut and bleeding passengers taken to the local hospital but a few bled to death waiting for the Obamacare bureaucrat to sign some paperwork and find a doctor since most of them quit. Guess I'll go back to my cardboard cottage and worship my picture of Big Brother Barry."

HE will save United no matter what. Count on it.

That would be hilarious if it wasn't so true...

 

[bluechunks]

Y'all forget who's the president...

Good point.

Of course, JetBlue mortgaged all it's spare parts back in 2006 or 2007 so it might not mean much either. The entire industry is a bag of hurt, and UAL's core financial ratios are not not terribly different than the rest of the industry. And surprisingly UAL is even better in some areas.

UAL is clearly the 'poster child' for airline financial mismanagement, but any discussion without including the other suspects (i.e. every other major U.S. airline except SWA) is just whistling in the graveyard.