UAL, AMR, USAir bankrupt by winter?

[Browntothebone]

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fitch-Downgrades-Delta-Air-bw-57705647.html?x=0&.v=1



Risk of default over the next year is mitigated by DAL's liquidity and cost advantages over its more vulnerable rivals--UAL, AMR and US Airways (all with IDRs of 'CCC' by Fitch). Fitch believes that a bankruptcy filing by any of those carriers, which could occur as early as the winter if operating trends fail to stabilize, would quickly result in further capacity rationalization and a stabilization of RASM trends for better-positioned carriers like DAL.[/FONT][/FONT]

 

[AAflyer]

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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fitch-Downgrades-Delta-Air-bw-57705647.html?x=0&.v=1



Risk of default over the next year is mitigated by DAL's liquidity and cost advantages over its more vulnerable rivals--UAL, AMR and US Airways (all with IDRs of 'CCC' by Fitch). Fitch believes that a bankruptcy filing by any of those carriers, which could occur as early as the winter if operating trends fail to stabilize, would quickly result in further capacity rationalization and a stabilization of RASM trends for better-positioned carriers like DAL.[/FONT][/FONT]

Thanks, better give the company a concessionary contract quickly.. I hope if we offer Republic pay rates, and hand over SCOPE we may survive the winter....

I will email my union ASAP... Thanks!!!!!!

AA

 

[contrail67]

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[FONT=ARIAL,]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fitch-Downgrades-Delta-Air-bw-57705647.html?x=0&.v=1[/FONT]



[FONT=ARIAL,]Risk of default over the next year is mitigated by DAL's liquidity and cost advantages over its more vulnerable rivals--UAL, AMR and US Airways (all with IDRs of 'CCC' by Fitch). Fitch believes that a bankruptcy filing by any of those carriers, which could occur as early as the winter if operating trends fail to stabilize, would quickly result in further capacity rationalization and a stabilization of RASM trends for better-positioned carriers like DAL.[/FONT][/FONT]

This guy can see the future just about as good as you can.

 

[CitationLover]

AMR bankruptcy is a lot of pride. Does Arpey want to be the one who led them to their first filing. I doubt it.

Why don't all these airlines buy a hotel and rental car company and merge them all for "synergy"? Oh wait, that's been tried before......

 

[crj567]

You know Obama will "bail them out" with money he borrows from our great-grandchildren and then show the class to try and blame that mess on Bush as well....

 

[Minimaniac]

American will do its best to avoid bankruptcy for reasons of pride. However, if it becomes necessary, AA will make it through just fine. The unions may give a little, but AA has so many other contracts that can be renegotiated for greater gain. The pilots will be a small part of the picture, and a token giveback will satisfy the big wigs.

As for US and UA.. did these companies ever really exit bankruptcy? Their exit plans were based on criteria that never quite materialized, and planned on markets that never quite developed. US will stumble through yet again, because someone will see that there is so much unrealized value to the northeast route structure that US flies. As for UA, I think we can see that Tilton would love to make a merger style exit, and that he will try hard to see United absorbed into some other carrier. No good, no good. United has some good assets, and they have already started eliminating as much of the narrow body fleet as they can at one time, making "synergy" easier to acheive in a merger.

 

[ATRCA]

How many BK filings have been "imminent" in the last few years? How many times have we read about the liquidity "crisis" at various carriers? To be honest, I'm not so sure I believe anything the financial "experts" say. They have been so wrong so many times on so many issues. None accurately predicted the banking crisis. None have give clear strategies for sustained growth. According to these folks, UAL has been going BK for the better part of 10 years. UA has been "broke" more times than AIG.

These BK filings are like new aircraft rumors. When they appear on the ramp, they're true............when these guys are in court, then and only then will they be truly BK. In the end, cash flow and savy financing will keep struggling airlines afloat longer than anyone has predicted.

Thats my "prediction"........

 

[jmreii]

How many BK filings have been "imminent" in the last few years? How many times have we read about the liquidity "crisis" at various carriers? To be honest, I'm not so sure I believe anything the financial "experts" say. They have been so wrong so many times on so many issues. None accurately predicted the banking crisis. None have give clear strategies for sustained growth. According to these folks, UAL has been going BK for the better part of 10 years. UA has been "broke" more times than AIG.

These BK filings are like new aircraft rumors. When they appear on the ramp, they're true............when these guys are in court, then and only then will they be truly BK. In the end, cash flow and savy financing will keep struggling airlines afloat longer than anyone has predicted.

Thats my "prediction"........

Many airlines know their financial situation even if the employees play dumb. I was at Eastern Airlines headquarters in Miami around September of 1990, I was told at that time Eastern was planning on shutting down operations forever around December of 1990, they only miss it by one month. I got a telegram on the west coast in January of 1991 that they were ceasing operations in about nine hours.

 

[Draginass]

Tilton and Parker have created such unholy messes at UAL and US Air, it's hard to see how they can survive.

 

[Citjok]

Just a few months ago Doug Parker was saying in the media that US Airways was in a better position than other carriers to ride this economic wave. Now he is telling employees that full airplanes doesn't mean US is making money. That can be true considering all the money they spend in stupid s&%t. I think DP will play the bankrupcy game by years end. Specially when he has to give the east pilots 35M in 2010, repay Republic's loan, etc. I think is going to get ugly.

 

[jmreii]

Just a few months ago Doug Parker was saying in the media that US Airways was in a better position than other carriers to ride this economic wave. Now he is telling employees that full airplanes doesn't mean US is making money. That can be true considering all the money they spend in stupid s&%t. I think DP will play the bankrupcy game by years end. Specially when he has to give the east pilots 35M in 2010, repay Republic's loan, etc. I think is going to get ugly.

I hope not, I have friends at both carriers that make up US airways and I wish them well.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

You know Obama will "bail them out" with money he borrows from our great-grandchildren and then show the class to try and blame that mess on Bush as well....

I going to keep re-reading this post.....Although it's not obvious, subliminally there has to be a large dig on Delta in it....there usually is one or two in all of his posts.

I'll report back to the FI faithful if I find anything......

 

[Lake Alice]

How many BK filings have been "imminent" in the last few years? How many times have we read about the liquidity "crisis" at various carriers? To be honest, I'm not so sure I believe anything the financial "experts" say. They have been so wrong so many times on so many issues. None accurately predicted the banking crisis. None have give clear strategies for sustained growth. According to these folks, UAL has been going BK for the better part of 10 years. UA has been "broke" more times than AIG.

These BK filings are like new aircraft rumors. When they appear on the ramp, they're true............when these guys are in court, then and only then will they be truly BK. In the end, cash flow and savy financing will keep struggling airlines afloat longer than anyone has predicted.

Thats my "prediction"........

Well said. This isn't the 70's, 80's or 90's anymore. If United, the worst airline, is still around no one is going away.

 

[75 Driver]

United is the land of the walking dead

Well said. This isn't the 70's, 80's or 90's anymore. If United, the worst airline, is still around no one is going away.

They just do not know that they should fall down, it is getting close now.uke:

 

[contrail67]

Well said. This isn't the 70's, 80's or 90's anymore. If United, the worst airline, is still around no one is going away.

Now is United the worst airline?..... or the one that shot you down in the interview.

 

[Bavarian Chef]

Now is United the worst airline?..... or the one that shot you down in the interview.

Haaaaa -- when they last interviewed in 1992? Or sumpin' like that.

 

[Paul R. Smith]

Haaaaa -- when they last interviewed in 1992? Or sumpin' like that.

They interviewed in 2007 and hired at least 3 good friends of mine from XJT. Not flaming. Just saying.

 

[Bavarian Chef]

They interviewed in 2007 and hired at least 3 good friends of mine from XJT. Not flaming. Just saying.

What? Say it ain't so.

And then they furloughed?


Wait a minute: people wanted to work there?

 

[SpauldingSmails]

AMR bankruptcy is a lot of pride. Does Arpey want to be the one who led them to their first filing. I doubt it.

Why don't all these airlines buy a hotel and rental car company and merge them all for "synergy"? Oh wait, that's been tried before......

Hahah, yeah and we can call that company "Allegis". I think it was Donald Trump who said something to the effect of, "It sounds like a very worldly form dysentery."

 

[AA717driver]

There will be no out of bankruptcy concessions by APA. They went to the well in 2003 and we got burned.

If Arpey and his crew are so F'in smart, let them figure out how to make money. (Here's a hint: You can't do it by flying 37 seat jets...)

TC

 

[Lake Alice]

Now is United the worst airline?..... or the one that shot you down in the interview.

Actually I was offered an interview and I turned it down so I don't have any hidden agendas. United is a poorly run carrier, period.

 

[Whine Lover]

" I think [it's] going to get ugly." - Citjok

Going to get ugly?

You mean as opposed to the last 10-15 years when UsAir was such a beautiful example of an airline?


YKWTFO?

 

[OurMoney1]

UAL and USAir are cash critical. I believe USAir has leveraged everything including their employees dignity, with so few options left I believe they are once again in trouble, big trouble.

AMR...not sure, they have alot of assets they could take to the pawn shop. I suspect they are the safest of the three.

 

[contrail67]

What? Say it ain't so.

And then they furloughed?


Wait a minute: people wanted to work there?

First of all....the pilots that interviewed made it through a very extensive interview process...don't take that away from them and also, if people could see the future, some may not even get up in the morning! Not ONE interviewing pilot knew that oil was going to $140+ a barrell and age 65 was going to get passed CREATING a furlough. Why do you not remember that?

You probably did not look at the retirement schedule at UAL either....how about 6500 pilots out the door by the time most of the "new hires" retire. So a furlough now is temporary....unless you can stop someone from getting old. Get it?

 

[contrail67]

Actually I was offered an interview and I turned it down so I don't have any hidden agendas. United is a poorly run carrier, period.

If United is such a poorly run company in your opinion....and i am not saying it is not poorly run, ...I have one question for you to answer on here....Why did you send in the application!?

You see, they just don't call you for an interview...you have to apply...because it is something you want. Trust me the application process is not that simple.

If I really don't want to work at such a poorly run company, the last thing I am going to do is spend time calculating all of my hours and filling out an application....then going through all the hurdles...to get a chance to interview....Just calling your bluff.

It is frustrating to get shot down....just admit it. We all have at some point.

 

[Scope out RJ's]

If United is such a poorly run company in your opinion....and i am not saying it is not poorly run, ...I have one question for you to answer on here....Why did you send in the application!?

You see, they just don't call you for an interview...you have to apply...because it is something you want. Trust me the application process is not that simple.

If I really don't want to work at such a poorly run company, the last thing I am going to do is spend time calculating all of my hours and filling out an application....then going through all the hurdles...to get a chance to interview....Just calling your bluff.

It is frustrating to get shot down....just admit it. We all have at some point.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I agree with it. LLC is not abiding by their bankruptcy agreements, and has a lot of issues that they have been hiding.
UAUA, well who knows, as for AMR, they company could solve a lot of this with a contract. You guys are quite unified. I am really impressed by it. Keep it up!