U.S. Airways trying to buy Delta

[bvt1151]

Don't forget Piedmont and PSA, Air Wisconsin (who owns a chunk of LCC), Colgan, and TSA in the Airways side of the mix...

Yeah, Piedmont is fine. They've been shrunk into this nice little niche market. Same with Colgan. Air Wisconsin can pretty much dictate their own future. PSA may find themselves shoved together with Comair in a Piedmont/Allegheny type merger, but thats stretching it. Either way, they're clearly at risk. TSA is a crap-shoot, but I wouldn't do any investing there for a while. I don't think Republic will come out as sweet as they think in this. They're banking on a bunch of 70's for further growth, and none of that is going to be in the Airways colors. Parker's still honked off about the 170 sale to Republic. They may be able to pay to keep most of their 50-seat flying, but remember that they still have not signed a deal with Delta, which means only Skywest/ASA are guaranteed to remain. Republic's not screwed, but they're not going to grow much, if at all, in my opinion.

 

[80for80]

Imagine the sounds on the radio in ATL of "Catus xxx" in a southern drawl!!!

 

[Freight Dog]

Good deal!!! Consolidation is the only way to get our industry and profession out of this graveyard spiral. Consolidation means less choices, means more pricing power, means more money to be made.

Hey, it worked for the oil industry, banks, and it will work for the airlines.

 

[lowecur]

I get the impression you like talking route strategy. Keep it coming! Its nice to be able to toss ideas back and forth with someone who knows a thing or two about it.

Jetblue will probably get their next hub out of this deal. CVG or SLC both are within range of the 190 from either coast although CVG would suit their purposes better. Neeleman has roots in SLC, so that would be a reasonable target should CVG fall through. The other option is to wait until other mergers are on the table and see what happens. Either way, the next few years will be interesting to say the least.

I also see AirTran and Jetblue reinstating their order book to the previous delivery schedule if this goes through.

imp:​

 

[michael707767]

Good deal!!! Consolidation is the only way to get our industry and profession out of this graveyard spiral. Consolidation means less choices, means more pricing power, means more money to be made. .

its a false assumption to think that consolidation will mean more pricing power. It will likely mean just the opposite. If consolidation happens and the merged airlines pull back some capacity, you just open the door for new entrants to add that capacity right back. Then instead of competing with another major who has similar costs you are competing with a start up with rock bottom costs.

 

[80for80]

its a false assumption to think that consolidation will mean more pricing power. It will likely mean just the opposite. If consolidation happens and the merged airlines pull back some capacity, you just open the door for new entrants to add that capacity right back.

That would be a good thing for those of us still at the regionals. It would mean new LCCs for us to try and get on with and if we can't get on with them, then it means more potential regional feeder agreements with them.

 

[LearLove]

That would be a good thing for those of us still at the regionals. It would mean new LCCs for us to try and get on with and if we can't get on with them, then it means more potential regional feeder agreements with them.

your kidding, right???

 

[80for80]

your kidding, right???

No. If this merger goes through then it will mean furloughs at the majors and less oppurtunities for us at the regionals to get on with a legacy major. So, if a new bunch of LCCs start up as a result, then it's still somewhere we can go to get away from the regionals, as any LCC is better than any regional.

 

[AAflyer]

your kidding, right???

Yup, just look at his screen name. He is a flamer. If not, well we have met the enemy and he is us.

AA

 

[B727Driver]

I also see AirTran and Jetblue reinstating their order book to the previous delivery schedule if this goes through.

on another thought, any guesses on LCC's merging to combat these larger, combined legacy carriers? Frontier and AirTran have their new agreement.

AirTran may want to sell their rights to the 737, add the Airbus and use the new capital and join up with Frontier and JB to form a large,strong LCC. Survival of the LCC's as individual entities maybe short lived if the legacy carriers become profitable and dominate in key markets. They may just price the LCC right out of business or weaken them to a breaking point. Big money talks. Thoughts?

 

[VeeOne]

Imagine the sounds on the radio in ATL of "Catus xxx" in a southern drawl!!!

I'm sure that's already going on/happened with the surplus Piedmont (the REAL Piedmont) guys that found themselves in yet another merger with AmWest.

 

[lowecur]

Will someone else submit a bid?

Yeah, probably. The other airlines and Wall St Bankers aren't going to let Doug waltz away with this at this price. Someone will step forward and force Doug & Citicorp to up the ante.

Any other Wall St Banker that got involved would want to see a mgt team with the savy of a Doug Parker. I doubt they would be happy to entertain a bid from UAL. UAL just doesn't have the mgt in place to run this type of a deal. That leaves AMR, CAL, and NWA. AMR would have a tough time convincing the DOJ due to the shear size of any new entity.

In the end, the creditors are calling the shots on this and they should have a few offers to look at.

imp:​

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

CNBC is interviewing two analysts from Bear Stearn and Standard and Poor's.... these two practically creamed their shorts. They essentially said it doesn't matter what Delta wants, this thing is going to happen.

These must be the same analysts who called UAL and USAir toast a few years back.......stay tuned this is just the orchestra warming up....the fat lady has yet to sing.

Anybody got the number to that truck driving school?? Truckmasters I think it is..???

 

[MJG]

Uhh, tell me again where the safe job in this industry is these days, until today I thought I had that part figured out.

 

[skiav8tor]

If I understood Parker correctly, the proposal is to merge the airlines after DAL exit bankruptcy.

It's an interesting proposal, lots of $$$, we'll see what happens.

To the contrary...it would have to happen before Delta emerges from BK. to be successful at these dollars.