Hello to all my MEH friends. When I saw TH's video, I knew I had heard his little speech before. In fact, I heard "the same, exact words" from F9's ceo just a few weeks ago. Not relatively close, exactly the same words.
We need pay cuts to get financing, everyone needs to share in the pain, fair and equitable, the judge will take much more than we are asking.
Let me guess, Timmy has hired the Seabury group to assist with their restructuring?
With regard to "pay cuts for financing", ask to see the term sheets. Ask Timmy for a contract between MEH and TPG with signatures that guarantees financing in return for a pay cut. You and I know that there is no financing and pay cuts have nothing to do with financing.
Have you heard about "lengthening the runway" yet? You will, in fact people will stop saying hello and goodby when they pass in the hall, instead they will just nod and repeat like robots "lengthen the runway, lengthen the runway"...
The story you will be told is, with these new paycuts (and the financing that is sure to materialize), MEH will be the strongest airline on the planet. You just need to lengthen the runway and survive the battle of attrition that exists in our industry today.
Initially, that "story" sounds reasonable, even logical. That is until you look at the numbers. What is your cash burn every day? How much financing do you realistically expect to be thrown at you? How long will that money, that doesn't actually exist, last in today's fuel environment?
The sad fact is, and I am speaking only about my airline as I have no right to tell you about yours, is that we are done. F9 never obtained financing, and never will unless we agree to interest rates higher than 15% which in itself is suicidal. In short order, we will begin to sell assets to obtain the only liquidity available. Once those dollars are gone, so are we.
If oil drops to $100 a barrel, "we will be the strongest airline on the planet...", unless you guys lengthen the runway. Then we will be the second strongest airline on the planet, until the next airline...
Is it too early to start drinking?
Well said StaySeated.
I wish you guys all the best at F9.