Wave,
I agree. I heard one of the commercials today and it clearly states the flights are on Volaris. SWA will gain marginal income from the sale of the tickets without flying a single flight. Lets peal this back further and see the possible consequences via short-term vs. long term.
Short-term
1. SWA gains additional revenue with limited or no overhead. Adds $$ to our coffers and therefore our ROIC.
2. Gets people use to going to southwest.com in flying to Mexico....we need to train the folks in advance to the AAI/SWA deal being sealed.
3. SWA will be able to mine the data to learn the amount of traffic and profitable routes being planned for by Volaris....very valuable intel.
4. SWA has a great many things on its plate; exploting the Volaris marketing agreement keeps the topic of US/Mexico flying warm thereby allowing focus to be generated toward getting SWA planes flying the same routes in the long term.
Long term
1. IF SWA chooses to not pursue US/Mexico markets after the dust settles with AAI/SWA issues, even if they stay within the CBA agreements, expect pushback from the pilots.
2. Adding new employees at the bottom of the pay scale is a necessary ingredient for 15% ROIC....adding aircraft to highly profitable US/Mexico routes (assuming that is what the intel shows from the Volaris MA) adds new employees.
3. Their costs will be lower than ours granted; Volaris has exclusivity for selling their product on southwest.com (not 100% but I think so). If SWA chooses to stop the MA or codeshare and start flying our own aircraft, Volaris will have to find other methods of ticket distribution...not always easy to do.
4. SWA has more impetus to fuel growth with more airplanes and persons than simply allowing Volaris to capture all of the flying.
The camel is no longer a little under the tent for some carriers but in the bedroom hanging out.
We won't know if the same can be said for this foray by SWA and their approach and if SWAPA will be viewed in the future as being complicit in the erosion of our own flying or be hailed as having vision for taking a slightly different approach to opening up new markets. My crystal ball doesn't extend that far out but until then everyone at SWA should watch carefully and assess every step carefully.
Hey Chase old buddy old pal, HOPE YOUR DAY IS GOING GREAT. Your new buddies at AT have been flying to Mexico for awhile now (I heard them down there once when they were doing MKE to Puerto Vallarta on a 737 charter), and they bring that expertise to your new merger. I am sure SWA management could use them more if they wanted, from any city in fact, since they are already familiar. Isn't that GREAT that you are merging with them? THEY ACTUALLY DO BRING A LOT TO THE TABLE, something those arbitrators will see most likely.
As far as for this Volaris deal though, many aspects are murky to say the least. Will Volaris be allowed to expand into more SWA US cities? Will SWA get a chance to reciprocate and fly their own equipment more often (AT already flies to CUN) and allow SWA pax to connect onto Volaris planes? Nobody really knows, except GK that is. I read the article about SWA looking at Hawaii too. Good ole Mike Boyd agrees that putting SWA 737-700s up against Hawaiian widebodies (and every other widebody from other airlines) really wouldn't be a great idea, because fares are so low already. Most legacies don't make money on Hawaii flights anyway, since they are full of frequent flyer awards. That article stated SWA is more interested in pax who come in FROM Hawaii, more like the ATA deal you guys used to have at OAK. IMO, it will be awhile until you guys get any Hawaii flights, or more Mexico stuff besides the AT flights to CUN. And, with the extra violence going on now in Mexico, that may be a GOOD thing for you guys. Maybe allowing Volaris to fly those flights is a SMART thing, safety wise at this moment.
Regardless, ALL OF YOU ARE FANTASTIC. REALLY, you guys are AWESOME IN A FANTASTICALLY GREAT WAY. And, if you have time tonight, please, do something nice for someone or something, like NOT asking aloud "Who allowed Shrek in the house?" when your Mother-N-Law comes over this Weekend for a Halloween Party at your house. See ya!
Bye Bye--General Lee
