SWA plan for 15% ROIC

[jonjuan]

Any truth to the rumor around widget land that swa is having to send 717 crews to China for recurrent? Supposedly del duh bought all the stateside time.

Would they also have to fly there on delta? That would be interesting.

 

[tankerhead]

China would certainly be safer than crossing Godby and braving the walk to grab lunch at K & WTF.

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

That was the other part of the rumor.

UOTE=jonjuan;2382336]Would they also have to fly there on delta? That would be interesting.[/QUOTE]

 

[SWA Bubba]

Traditional WN pilot staffing is 10.2 pilots/airframe. Based on that number we would need 7140 pilots to staff a combined fleet of 700 airframes which leaves us overstaffed by roughly 700 pilots in 2015 with the roughly 200 WN retirments factored in. That is IF you buy into a flat fleet which I don't. It will take until mid 2020 for the WN retirements to get us down to that staffing number. How many millions of dollars do you really think the company is willing to spend training and employing excess pilots to sit around and fly very little just to save face and say that "we've never furloughed" ? 700 extra F/Os cost over $100 MILLION per year.

Dude. Seriously. Give it a rest.

Everyone knows your every post is about impending SWA furloughs. We all get it. You can stop yelling now. We all know that's what you're about; we just don't believe you. Nobody does. We see you're a pissed-off junior pilot who wants to see the worst in the situation. However, reality doesn't bear you out. Neither does any fact, or any statement or other indication given by any member of Southwest management. Nothing.

And to address your above post, you're wrong about "traditional pilot staffing." Pilot manning was 10.7 to 10.8 pilots per plane when -I-was hired in 2001, NOT 10.2 per plane. I realize that the 10.2 number you used was designed to fit your dire predictions (now you're making up your own facts), but it just isn't so. And, as the pilot force gets older (more medical leaves to cover) AND more senior (more vacation-weeks to cover), that 10.8 can only drift slowly upward.

Enough already. Okay?

Bubba

 

[scoreboardII]

700 extra F/Os cost over $100 MILLION per year.

Utter BS.

700 FO's at $100hr * 85hr/month * 12 months = $71M and change per year IF they sit doing nothing.

Subtract the training cost to recert those folks 9 months later when SWA decides they need more pilots:

Two weeks in DAL: 5TFP per day, Sim time: four events/4 hrs per, $10,000 pr hour of sim time, PC with very senior check airman $12,000.

Thats $350,000 in training pay, $28,000,000 in sim time, $8.4M in checkrides or about $35 mil to bring the guys back you could have kept flying min guarantee FOR FREE, not including the massive reduction in premium pay flown by the now swollen reserve lines. Saving just one percent of pilot payroll by not paying premium is about 10 times your estimate. The GO folks who run these numbers where probably born at night, just not last night.

GBJ, you're argument is as worthless as (audience fill in the blank).

 

[PCL_128]

scoreboardII, while I agree that there aren't going to be any furloughs, your math doesn't work. First, assuming furloughs of about 700 pilots as he claims, you also have to figure for the resultant captain displacements of about 350 captains. There's more cost savings. You also have to figure for the fringe benefit costs of the furloughed pilots. The typical airline pays about an extra 25% per pilot for all of the benefits and taxes that the company picks up. SWA is likely less, but they certainly aren't going to get to less than 15% extra. Once you factor it all in, his numbers might even be a little on the low side.

But again, I agree with you that furloughs aren't coming unless something really dire happens.

 

[Ty Webb]

Two weeks in DAL: 5TFP per day, Sim time: four events/4 hrs per, $10,000 pr hour of sim time, PC with very senior check airman $12,000.

SB2, Where does this figure come from?

I thought the Sim itself was closer to $700./hr . . . plus 2 trainee Pilots and a C/A.

If this is correct, then cost of training a crew is about $5,000. per day, so the cost of training each Pilot is probably closer to $2,500. per day, which means bringing each pilot back on line would cost closer to $15K, which amounts to about $10.5 Million ($15,000. x 700).

Still, there is much more to a furlough decision than just $$. I don't think you are going to see SWA furlough Pilots while they are profitable; barring a cataclysmic event, you're not going to see any furloughs, Chicken Little, err, excuse me, GBJ.

 

[dicko]

Any truth to the rumor around widget land that swa is having to send 717 crews to China for recurrent? Supposedly del duh bought all the stateside time.

No.

Since there are no 717 Simulators in China. Closest one is in Oz. Considering that rumor was started by a DALPA Rep, in print, on an update, it's kind of funny. Maybe he's geographically challenged.

 

[Ty Webb]

What happened to the Miami and Long Beach sims? Did they end up at Alteon in ATL, or somewhere else?

 

[dicko]

What happened to the Miami and Long Beach sims? Did they end up at Alteon in ATL, or somewhere else?

Dunno. Boeing says it has 717 sims in ATL, BNE, SEA and Stockholm.