How close was that SWA captain to the hiring process?
I agree that references being called doesn't guarantee any result, but if references are NEVER called, I think that's a very definite indicator. References being called means that you "passed" the minimum level at the interview & your record will go to the Decision Board, which will then decide... can go either way at that point. Those who "fail" the interview do not get their references called, and will meet the Decision Board only to be rejected. (For legal reasons, only the DB can officially turn down a candidate... but when some step in the process indicates a "no" vote, they save the time & $ of the other steps.)
So, yes, references being called matters.
And yes, it is a SWA pilot (or two or three) who makes the calls. That coming from a conversation with a pilot who used to do exactly that, plus another (current) interview pilot.
All that said, it's a SMALL number of guys making the calls, and they may well be a little backed up right now, so DON'T SWEAT IT if it takes a while before the references are called. (Also, don't assume that the reference will automatically tell you when he's been contacted... some will, some won't. Ask.) BUT, when you DO hear that a reference has been called, you can know that the others WILL get calls, and you're "still in the game" heading into the Decision Board.
I offer this because the time after the interview is stressful enough as is; if guys have some insight into the process & the ability to get a bit of good news from their buds, then maybe this will be helpful to somebody out there.
All the best,
Snoopy