SWA and the 737-800

[Full of LUV]

RE:

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/airpor...ulu, HI: Honolulu International&carrier=FACTS

I am sticking to my guess that it will be OAK or LAX-nonstop-HNL. I believe the "Hawaii market" is different than a Dallas-to-Denver traveler who "accepts" an interim stop in AUS/MCI/etc because the ticket is cheap and the service is great.

I think the Hawaii traveler is a different animal and will not desire stops enroute for fuel/etc other reasons.

The HNL traveler is probably more a tourist/vacation (once a year, twice a year, etc) traveler who is not going to loose sleep over paying 150 bucks more to fly Old Legacy Air non-stop, versus save 150 bucks and have to make a fuel stop on SWA. He is already going to HNL for vacation, so comfort and timeliness (he is on vacation, he may have requested time off from his employer, etc.....get to HNL and bang the fiance ? Or spend time buying Cinnabons at an interim stop while refuel occurs ?) are important.

1. What is the "service" to Hawaii that SWA will offer compared to UAL? At this time, you can't even buy food on a SWA flight.

2. There is not $150 in pricing power for SWA to undercut the market to Hawaii that much. HNL is not some protected fortress hub with outrageous airfares. Yes the fares can get up to the $500 during high season for coach, but during nonpeak they often drop down to the high $200's, really not much coin for what you get in the way of transportation.

LUV

 

[satpak77]

1. What is the "service" to Hawaii that SWA will offer compared to UAL? At this time, you can't even buy food on a SWA flight.

2. There is not $150 in pricing power for SWA to undercut the market to Hawaii that much. HNL is not some protected fortress hub with outrageous airfares. Yes the fares can get up to the $500 during high season for coach, but during nonpeak they often drop down to the high $200's, really not much coin for what you get in the way of transportation.

LUV

Good questions, ones that I don't have the real answers to. However,

#1 - the route has not started yet so nobody knows what will be offered (if anything). However "experience" as in smiling FA's and on-time performance is better than galley grannies and late airplanes. All things being equal, the customer will go with the better experience.

#2 - I suppose it will be ultimately the customer's choice, and whether he wants a stop or non-stop. The "we might stop" due to headwinds probably won't fly either, not sure the range on the -800 but this may affect the discussed PHX / DEN market. The customer wants reliability also.

 

[Fubijaakr]

I was referring to Non Stop, but how would SWA do a "quick SWA turn" before an ETOPS flight? Sounds like a recipe for a violation to me.

Agreed.

There have been months when more than 50% of the time AK has had to bump bags or bags and Pax's. Winter more than summer obviously.

I'd be interested to know where you got this information.

 

[IAHERJ]

Good questions, ones that I don't have the real answers to. However,

#1 - the route has not started yet so nobody knows what will be offered (if anything). However "experience" as in smiling FA's and on-time performance is better than galley grannies and late airplanes. All things being equal, the customer will go with the better experience.

#2 - I suppose it will be ultimately the customer's choice, and whether he wants a stop or non-stop. The "we might stop" due to headwinds probably won't fly either, not sure the range on the -800 but this may affect the discussed PHX / DEN market. The customer wants reliability also.

The range of the -800 will not allow a DEN-HNL non-stop, even if the aircraft weighs less due to having lighter coach seats and only one "galley".

 

[Ex737Driver]

The range of the -800 will not allow a DEN-HNL non-stop, even if the aircraft weighs less due to having lighter coach seats and only one "galley".

Having done LAX-HNL and SNA-HNL, there ain't no way your gonna do DEN-HNL with a 737. We put 160 on a CAL 737-800 from LAX-HNL. How many will SWA put on their -800? Not seeing PHX-HNL as a possibility either.

 

[igneousy2]

There have been months when more than 50% of the time AK has had to bump bags or bags and Pax's. Winter more than summer obviously.

Although I have no specific stats to refute this, this statement is highly doubtful. I might believe it if the statement was "planes cannot go out with all seats filled half the time" but as far as involuntary denied bordings which is what you are implying here...I find it highy improbable. I fly a lot of Hawaii and have yet to have to make a flag stop anywhere and from talking to other crewmembers it doesn't seem like it is that common of an experience. Most of the time we can take care of the fuel problem by rerouting south and delaying entry into ETOPS airspace until Southern Oregon/Northern California. (assming SEA/PDX departure, bay area flights are almost never a problem)

PHX-HNL I think would be a stretch in the heart of winter. Other 9-10 months...no sweat.

SNA-Hawaii is hard not because of the distance but because of the runway at SNA. AQ flew 700's so it was less of an issue...CAL ETOPS'd some 737-700's, Alaska has decided the expense of having a handful of 700's ETOPS'd for this one route is not worth it and has let this market go athough there have been rumors floating around for a LGB-Hawaii route floating around for a long time.

My prediction for SWA is that they will fall in love with the 800 so much that it will become the main airframe. It seats A LOT more people then the 700 and aside from the extra FA has essentially identical operating cost. SWA will apply the same "growth" strategy that Alaska has mastered and be able to "grow" the airline without any increase in fleet size.

I don't agree with a lot Fubi says but one thing I do agree with is that you guys will absolutely LOVE this airplane. The 800 is hands-down the best flying of the NG's.

 

[HalinTexas]

PHX-HNL I think would be a stretch in the heart of winter. Other 9-10 months...no sweat.

Have you ever done it? I can tell you from ONT-HNL there's a lot of "sweat." MGTW with a full tank of gas, and not a full load of pax (162 mixed class, 175 all coach). PHX in summer burns a lot of gas to get off the ground. LAS, you can't get over the mountains in summer. Took off regularly from LAX within 1000# of MGTOW.

Out of OGG and LIH we had to use 27K, flaps 25, all the wind and sometimes the altimeter corrections, bleeds off, and it better not be above 82º F. LIH we had late-nite red-eyes just to get the temp. Remember, this is WITH a tailwind coming back. Non-stop out of PHX or LAS will never happen under the present design of the aircraft. Alaska, Aloha, or ATA would have done it by now.

On a wish and a prayer.

 

[HalinTexas]

One word missing from this discussion is "freight." That's where the real money is going to HI. HAL's revenue and profit soared after Aloha and ATA shut down. SWA will be lucky to get 1000# in an -800 going out. HAL probably has locked up a lot more of it going out there in the interim. Curious, how much do you Alaska guys take out there now?

 

[chqflyer]

I've seen some Hawaiian 737's in LAS. They market some flights between LAS-HNL and LAS-OGG. Can those flights be nonstop?

 

[satpak77]

I've seen some Hawaiian 737's in LAS. They market some flights between LAS-HNL and LAS-OGG. Can those flights be nonstop?

http://flightaware.com/live/findflight?origin=KLAS&originName=&destination=PHNL&destinationName=

http://flightaware.com/live/findflight?origin=KLAS&originName=&destination=OGG&destinationName=

 

[Jim]

I've seen some Hawaiian 737's in LAS. They market some flights between LAS-HNL and LAS-OGG. Can those flights be nonstop?

Hawaiian does not have 737s. You are mistaken.

 

[satpak77]

my uneducated surfing of Flightaware shows no 737's nonstop to HNL from US except on-the-west-coast departures. (LAX, etc).

Most all other departures into HNL are 757/767/A330/etc type stuff.

Wondering outloud, being that SFO-HNL (OAK for SWA) and LAX-HNL are top routes for all the carriers, I wonder how hard it will be to obtain routes to those places via the various governmental bodies.

We are just talking "flying" so they don't have to be pilot bases (do they?).

May we see LGB (10K runway) to HNL ? to capture the San Diego and LA markets ? We know how SWA prefers to stay away from congested airports.

 

[redflyer65]

One word missing from this discussion is "freight." That's where the real money is going to HI. HAL's revenue and profit soared after Aloha and ATA shut down. SWA will be lucky to get 1000# in an -800 going out. HAL probably has locked up a lot more of it going out there in the interim. Curious, how much do you Alaska guys take out there now?

Southwest already has a pretty lucriative freight contract with Hawaiian. So some of those packages that HAL is flying back and forth actually put change in Southwest's pocket now.

Once we start running routes, I'm sure it will just get bigger. We make a ton of money on freight alone in LAX.

 

[HalinTexas]

Southwest already has a pretty lucriative freight contract with Hawaiian. So some of those packages that HAL is flying back and forth actually put change in Southwest's pocket now.

Once we start running routes, I'm sure it will just get bigger. We make a ton of money on freight alone in LAX.

I'm sure you will begin hauling some of your own freight, but not as much as a B767 or A330. That freight contract might continue for the HNL route, but if you fly into the other islands, you'll probably keep some of that. I don't think I ever hauled more than about 1000 lbs. of freight out there.

 

[nimtz]

It's a given that the LUV boys will trash HNL competition like the Lombardi Power Sweep! Wow they got longer Guppies now!?!