Speculator's mocking the airlines

[hate2bL8]

traders are not concerned about what happens to the commodity in the future. From what i understand they hold massive volumes of contracts( millions)and are only responsible for a small fraction of what they are holding(this is how they can make huge profits) and rarely hold it for longer than mimutes or even seconds

 

[Superpilot92]

THE ONLY PEOPLE WHO SAY IT ISNT SPECULATION ARE THE FINANCIAL IKNSTITUTIONS THAT ARE MAKING THE MONEY OFF OF RISING OIL PRICES.

How does the absence of effective regulation of commodity trading compare to the stock-market excesses of the 1920s?

To the extent that the Intercontinental Exchange operates outside of U.S. limits and controls on speculation, there is very substantial evidence suggesting that United States futures trading on that exchange is akin to the unregulated trading in U.S. stocks in the 1920s. That comparison is aided by the fact that huge positions in these markets can be obtained by speculators with less than 10 percent margin.

(Margin is a requirement that a buyer of a security or commodity put down a certain percentage of the price of the transaction when executing a trade. A low margin requirement invites speculation, since an investor puts less of his own money at stake.

(Low margins were a cause of the 1929 stock-market crash. Since 1974, stocks have had a margin requirement of 50 percent set by the Federal Reserve. For U.S. crude oil futures contracts, margin requirements are generally below 10 percent and are set by market participants, not federal regulators.)

 

[Superpilot92]

traders are not concerned about what happens to the commodity in the future. From what i understand they hold massive volumes of contracts( millions)and are only responsible for a small fraction of what they are holding(this is how they can make huge profits) and rarely hold it for longer than mimutes or even seconds

Exactly, thus piggybacking off one another.

 

[Superpilot92]

[FONT=verdana,geneva]On several occasions in the past few months, I have written about the impact of skyrocketing fuel prices on airline customers – in their daily lives and when they travel (Final Approach May 1 and Final Approach May 28 ). In the long run, to lower oil prices for all Americans, we need to increase domestic supply, increase exploration, alternative energy sources and conservation. However, one near-term solution to the problem is for government to investigate and rein in oil speculators.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,geneva]What is the Commodities Market? – Commodities are raw materials purchased by manufacturers of finished products such as food manufacturers, oil refiners or builders. Businesses that are highly dependent on oil – refineries, heating oil dealers, airlines and trucking companies among others – lessen their risk of significant price fluctuations by purchasing future delivery contracts at predetermined prices in what is known as the commodities or futures markets. The two largest U.S. commodities markets or futures exchanges are the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange, where people trade standardized futures contracts; that is, a contract to buy specific quantities of a commodity at a specified price with delivery set at a specified time in the future.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,geneva]What is the Problem with Oil? – There is a significant disconnect between the paper market for oil (speculators) and the physical market for oil (consumers). In recent years, speculators have taken advantage of actual consumers of oil by bidding up the price for futures contracts. If a speculator purchases a contract for delivery of oil at a high price six or 12 months in the future but has no intention of actually taking delivery of the oil in that contract, then a physical customer who needs that oil – to deliver home heating oil, to operate trucks or airplanes, or even to process in a refinery – will be forced to pay the higher price in order to obtain the oil that is needed.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,geneva]How Do They Get Away with That? – Increasingly, sophisticated institutional investors have managed to manipulate the rules and regulations governing commodities transactions through a series of exemptions and waivers, including the so-called “Enron loophole,” low margin requirements and the dodging of U.S. public disclosure requirements. These complex arrangements have a similar impact: They put people engaged in oil-related businesses at a disadvantage with those who gamble relatively small sums that the price of oil will increase out of proportion to marketplace demands. If that happens, as it has regularly over the past few years, those who need oil for their businesses pay a premium, which is passed on to you – the consumer. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,geneva]What Can Government Do Now? – In the near term, Congress needs to address the impact of unchecked speculation in the commodities market. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,geneva]Commodities trading is overseen by a small, but very powerful government agency known as the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) . Congress can require the CFTC to implement a host of controls such as imposing limits on the quantity of commodities contracts speculators may purchase, closing the loopholes that allow speculators to trade exempt from any government oversight or regulation, and requiring reporting by those who are engaging in speculation. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,geneva]Experts say that closing regulatory loopholes in the trading of commodity futures will result in a significant reduction in fuel prices.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,geneva]What’s Next? – Congress is expected to debate some of these issues in the next few weeks and it is urgent that they hear your voice. To facilitate public participation in the debate over speculators, we have launched a broad-based coalition, S.O.S. NOW, that provides a wide array of information on speculation and its impact on the price we all pay for oil. S.O.S. NOW stands for Stop Oil Speculation Now, and we urge you to go to the Web site www.stopoilspeculationnow.com and send a message to Congress about oil speculation.[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva]Sincerely,[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,geneva]James C. May[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva]President and CEO[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva]Air Transport Association[/FONT]

 

[clippyrip]

It looks to me that IF speculators are driving up prices (and I havn't seen any evidence that they are other than shrill leftist voices trying to draw attention away from the fact that 90% of our offshore reserves are not being tapped...

you sir are a clown....try pulling your head out of Fox News's A$$.

 

[skiandsurf]

you sir are a clown....and that is coming from an Alaskan who wants ANWR tapped.

Dont most Alaskans want that tapped? Money, jobs.

Did I mention money and jobs for the local economy.

I am all for drilling in ANWR, and I dont even live in Alaska.

 

[flyipilot]

It's been tried by major airlines, and what they found was a loss of revenue. Bob Crandall pointed out years ago that most passengers say they'll gladly pay more for bigger seats, extra legroom, better service etc., then turn around and book the cheapest fare. They'll "pay up" only when they have no other choice.

As for the fractionals, they serve a limited market and inherently cannot expand to cover the public at large, because exclusivity is a major part of their product.

Well, for one, that IS the answer that the airlines do not want to face...MAKE IT NO OTHER CHOICE. The utilities industry do that. If the airlines would all raise the prices to say...hmmmm, cover the cost of doing business, then we all have to pay more. But, Crandell was a smart man in the 70's, not today. His model does not work, the freq flyer programs do not work, and the fare structures he came up do not work, oh and his hub and spoke system does not work. Do not believe me? How are the airlines doing today? Anyone been delayed out of a major city?

As for the fractionals not being able to grow due to limited market well, that is wrong as well. We are growning and fast! We have 1 year waiting list, Cessna and the like can not build planes fast enough...can Boeing? (crickets in Seattle) In fact, Boeing just layed off a ton of people, Cessna is hiring like mad. It is a cycle true but, frationals are growing more because the market IS expanding. Just check out how many more people are worth a billion dollars than 5 years ago? Talk about limits, I think the airlines have reached there limits in many way. NO more cash (limited), not as many trained pilots who want to go back and forth layoff to layoff (limited), tons of pissed off pax who pay the employees are all cutting back on flying because it is a hassle and it is a slowing economy (limited), FAA patience with airlines not complying with the required checks (limited), and of course the airspace system that can not handle the tons of flights into the hub and spoke system set up by the airlines themselves..(limited)....so, time is up for them. It is sad to see them close and go out of business one by one. It will get worse. Wait and see. Amtrak is doing well and hiring.

 

[skiandsurf]

Well, for one, that IS the answer that the airlines do not want to face...MAKE IT NO OTHER CHOICE. The utilities industry do that. If the airlines would all raise the prices to say...hmmmm, cover the cost of doing business, then we all have to pay more. But, Crandell was a smart man in the 70's, not today. His model does not work, the freq flyer programs do not work, and the fare structures he came up do not work, oh and his hub and spoke system does not work. Do not believe me? How are the airlines doing today? Anyone been delayed out of a major city?

As for the fractionals not being able to grow due to limited market well, that is wrong as well. We are growning and fast! We have 1 year waiting list, Cessna and the like can not build planes fast enough...can Boeing? (crickets in Seattle) In fact, Boeing just layed off a ton of people, Cessna is hiring like mad. It is a cycle true but, frationals are growing more because the market IS expanding. Just check out how many more people are worth a billion dollars than 5 years ago? Talk about limits, I think the airlines have reached there limits in many way. NO more cash (limited), not as many trained pilots who want to go back and forth layoff to layoff (limited), tons of pissed off pax who pay the employees are all cutting back on flying because it is a hassle and it is a slowing economy (limited), FAA patience with airlines not complying with the required checks (limited), and of course the airspace system that can not handle the tons of flights into the hub and spoke system set up by the airlines themselves..(limited)....so, time is up for them. It is sad to see them close and go out of business one by one. It will get worse. Wait and see. Amtrak is doing well and hiring.

Sounds like UAL should have sold off the airline and continued with Avalar. Then again, UAL tried Shuttle by United. They tried Ted. Why not an upscale shuttle.....maybe United Elite. Get some of those RJs and take out half the seats, charge double, and run business mans shuttle from NY-DCA, SFO-LAX, ORD-NY, ORD-DEN, DEN-DAL. DAL-LAX. The fractionals have proven that people will pay more for a better experience.....now try and give them that option.

Oh wait, that will never work. Instead lets park the planes and furlough employees.

 

[clippyrip]

Dont most Alaskans want that tapped?

Yes! Most Americans are clueless as to the size of Alaska and the size of ANWR. ANWR is the size of Washington State and the area proposed for use is the size of a college campus within Washington State. I laugh at any environmentalist that says the caribou will not have enough room to roam, it's preposterous. Secondly, ANWR lies next to the Canadian boarder, do they think the caribou only stay on the American side when they migrate thousands of miles? Asinine. Finally, I've been to ANWR and there is nothing there. Once you get North of the Brooks Range it is flat as a pancake and cold as hell....there is nothing there.

Sorry to vent but let's open up that place already. I don't believe it will do much for the price of oil but it will for Alaskas future. A future I put above the caribou migration that will never be affected.

 

[clippyrip]

If you cut Alaska in half, Texas would become the third largest state in the union. Each half would be bigger than Texas...

 

[SDF2BUF2MCO]

It's been tried by major airlines, and what they found was a loss of revenue. Bob Crandall pointed out years ago that most passengers say they'll gladly pay more for bigger seats, extra legroom, better service etc., then turn around and book the cheapest fare. They'll "pay up" only when they have no other choice.

As for the fractionals, they serve a limited market and inherently cannot expand to cover the public at large, because exclusivity is a major part of their product.

What the pax meant is when their company will pay. Now that companies have tightened belts price is king (except for hotels - don't want to spend more the $300 for airfare but think nothing of $199 at the Hilton, go figure).

I agree on the fracs, I think ego and/or exclusivity has a lot to do with the product.

 

[dtfl]

That is a letter from four guys who would screw their mom if there was profit in it. What else would they do but go tell you to shove off. That is why we need to close the loop hole and cut them off at the knees.

AMEN!!!!

These butt-clowns probably used to work for Enron too.
What a bunch of ethical, upstanding Americans.

Ok..to fend off the wolves..there is NOTHING wrong with American capitalism...but these guys reek of the character Michael Douglas played in WALL STREET. Like Clippyrip said..they'd screw their own Mom for $1

 

[Copydat]

Funny how every Tom, Dick, & Harry assumes they could run an airline better than all the airline CEOs present and future.

Concerning fractionals I can tell you that the customers I have at my FBO (yes I fly 121 and own an FBO) that fly have done the following during this "great economy". They have sold their company owned aircraft and either gone without or bought into fractionals. Fractrionals are not growing exclusively at the expense of first class airline travelers but are also ridding airports of locally owned and based aircraft. Fractionals are a great way for companys to get more "bang for the buck" without the hassels, expense, liability and balance sheet exposure that they experience with wholly owned aircraft. However, the local FBO's, maintenance shops, and pilots suffer loss of income when the fractional comes to town.

Also, why is it that these same people slamming the industry have to interject their own version of "we want better food" into the equation. Better service, bigger planes, more frequency, nonstop service and by the way - cheaper fares. That is what these analyst would do and they would be flat broke quicker than you can say hedge fund. These analyst should go back to giving us the same underperforming suggestions that we are accustomed to and leave the airline slamming to someone else.

 

[pipe]

Honestly, this is one of the most ignorant posts I've ever read. It's representative of this site and what the media has put out to demonize somebody. It's very much a part of the class envy that the Democrat party wants to encourage.

Futures markets are a key component to just about every commodity that is sold in the U.S. (and the world, for that matter). The commodities markets provide a stabilizing effect on the volatile prices that would prevail in most commodities. Speculators (sic) do not control the prices. Futures contracts are bought and sold for a price that the purchaser feels the market will bear. Users of the commodities buy those contracts for a future date in order to know a certain price for that commodity. For example, an airline may pay slightly higher than the current price for gas two months from now because they think the price is going up, and they want to know for sure what they will pay. So, they can set the price of a plane ticket for that date knowing what their actual cost will be. This is done with all sorts of products.

The 'speculators' do not set the price of the contracts. They buy and sell them at a price that they believe that the market will bear at a future date. If they feel that the market for a commodity is going to go down in a month's time, they will not buy contracts for higher, but they would buy it for lower. This has been the case plenty of times in the past with oil. The futures markets for oil are not being affected by the speculators that have been so demonized. The markets have been affected by market forces such as higher demand, limited supply, declining U.S. currency, and many others.

Bottom line is that if the market did not support higher oil prices, speculators would not be purchasing contracts for higher prices. If they did, and the oil was not, in fact, priced that highly, they would be stuck with overpriced contracts that would be no use and the cost would be a loss.

Speculators do not cause the price of oil to go up. The oil market causes the future price of oil to continue to be higher.

Yep, you're right. Oil demand has increased sevenfold in the past two years, thus explaining the sevenfold price increase.

I know at my house, we have to leave all of our cars running 24/7 to do our part. In order to rationalize the purported sevenfold demand increase, we may even have to buy larger vehicles. In addition, my airline is using a cost index of one million. This is necessary to maintain the sevenfold increase in oil demand.

Get the HELL out of here!!!! The price does not reflect market realities in any way. There is nothing rational about any of this. The speculators are a middleman that provides no value added! Their chunk of the pie has grown to about 50% of the market price. Add value or be removed from the transaction. That is good economic policy.

PIPE

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

That's exactly my point. How do you think most Netjets customers traveled the country before Netjets existed? That's right- on the airlines, probably sitting in first class. You lost your bread and butter and they're never coming back. You can raise fares all you want but you'll only lose more trailer trash and continue to park airplanes. Didn't they teach you this at Riddle last year?

Hey Jackhole.....

Go get my bags and make sure my rental car is ready and this catering is too cold...

BTW, are you enjoying the free popcorn at the FBO while your masters are out golfing???