Southwest - Profit!!!

[Gorilla]

????

If SWA does get the 787, or a smaller version, they will be the most able to afford it. Yes, expensive, but SWA is getting 35 planes a year already.

Everyone is going to get the 787??? If they can get financing.

Dude, I'm not Nostradamus, it was just a possibility. My point was that much of the SWA economy comes from the common fleet and common training.

Yes they can afford them. They can afford 777's right now, but have decided against it for economic reasons. Cheaper to fly what they have, as everyone is trained and they have the maintenance. My point was that if they end up with more than one aircraft type, then a lot of their cost advantages disappear.

 

[lowecur]

Lowerturd, quit smoking crack. Very original. The best part of you ran down your daddys leg. Actually, I was imaculately conceived. Now back up this idiotic comment with some fact instead of spewing some bs like a brother in hood trying not to get locked up. Oooo, a racist comment. Soooo, you don't like the fact that I quoted an analcyst. Would you like me have him pm you his data?

imp:

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Dude, I'm not Nostradamus, it was just a possibility.

Cheaper to fly what they have, as everyone is trained and they have the maintenance. My point was that if they end up with more than one aircraft type, then a lot of their cost advantages disappear.

You assume all 787 derivatives will be a type different from the current 737.

I think SWA will get a carbon fiber based airplane with a cockpit that looks surprisingly like the 737-700.

 

[lowecur]

Did you know this guy at Lehman brothers sounds daft?

Actually, Holly Hegeman quoted this guy in her newsletter last week. She said he is considered the top analyst on SWA. Imagine, all this coming from the mother of a son who is a pilot for SWA.

Incidently, I too was wondering where these guys get there info. A few months ago, one of them reported that JBLU was losing money on every new route they opened in the last few years. I think someone mentioned they get the info directly from the dot, where airlines have to report pax numbers on all routes. I guess the analysts plug in the average fares to get revenue numbers, then subtract airport and general expense costs to get their data. Sounds reasonable, as right after that Jetblue admitted they were losing their perverbiable butts on most of these routes and changed strategy.

imp:

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Actually, Holly Hegeman quoted this guy in her newsletter last week. She said he is considered the top analyst on SWA.

Imagine, all this coming from the mother of a son who is a pilot for SWA.

A few months ago, one of them reported that JBLU was losing money on every new route they opened in the last few years.

imp:

I won't be asking Lehman brothers their opinion on airlines.

Did you notice how the street was so surprised by SWA's numbers?? Nice pop in the stock. I knew it was coming. Did Lehman??

What do you think confers extra knowledge to the parent of a pilot? We are usually the last to know anything.


These analysts have to make up stories to please their clients. They use qualifiers like it is their "estimate" or "unless market forces change".


Well, the market is always changing. We have to anticipate that change. All of us will be wrong in one or more of our predictions. But some predictions are so lame (obvious) or wrong they stand out.

 

[Dangerkitty]

Actually, Holly Hegeman quoted this guy in her newsletter last week. She said he is considered the top analyst on SWA. Imagine, all this coming from the mother of a son who is a pilot for SWA.

Thats your problem; Holly Hegeman is a moron and lacks credibility.

 

[Gorilla]

You assume all 787 derivatives will be a type different from the current 737.

I think SWA will get a carbon fiber based airplane with a cockpit that looks surprisingly like the 737-700.

Very cool, that makes training cheap. What about maintenance?

I have warm fuzzy thoughts for all 121 carriers and wish everyone success, but when I see "my" B737-800 cockpit outfitted with '60's switchology, so SWA could keep the common type, it's a bit annoying. Is my source wrong? I'd heard that Boeing was going to make it a mini 777, but SWA said "No, make it common with older 737's. We are the 737 Gorilla in the airline world; make them the way we want!" Is this true?

When I saw that horrible trim wheel on the pedestal, I was shocked.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Most of this is in good fun. What I find is: some can dish it out but can't take it when it comes back to them. I know LUCK plays a huge role in where one ends up. This is no different, however I also believe one creates their own luck. I made the calls, I applied and worked hard for this. I continue to work hard (some would laugh at this) everyday to keep this Company going.

I gotta back up SWA/FO on this particular post.

I have many friends who were frozen like a deer in the headlights after 9/11. They stayed like this for years. Some are still holding out hope that their old line numbers at AA, DAL, UAL and USAir are worth protecting.

They chose not pursue ANYTHING. No 737 type, no app to UPS or FedEX. In fact more than half just put their head in the sand. They are bumming in the reserves or got out of the industry at much less pay. (Some who left the industry or went back on active duty are doing very well, I don't count those guys in this.)

One dude is letting his wife support him as he plays Mr. Mom. She looks like she has aged 15 years over the last 3.

All the while some pursued, and got, jobs at FedEx, UPS, SWA, JetBlue and Airtran.

You gotta wonder if it was a good move to trade a 1997-2000 date of hire at a previous leading employer for another year at the bottom. Time will tell.


"Chance favors the prepared mind"

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Very cool, that makes training cheap. What about maintenance?

Everyone that gets the 787 is going to spend $ on new maintenance. It won't be a cascading effect like pilots switching equipment type whenever it suits them. Go ask a Delta pilot how many times they have switched equipment the last 5 years.

When you start calling folks back at AA you will see the same nonsense.

 

[Gorilla]

Everyone that gets the 787 is going to spend $ on new maintenance. It won't be a cascading effect like pilots switching equipment type whenever it suits them. Go ask a Delta pilot how many times they have switched equipment the last 5 years.

When you start calling folks back at AA you will see the same nonsense.

You're missing my point. Southweast has always had a cost advantage in this regards over other carriers with multiple aircraft types. If/when the 787 comes to SWA, that advantage will vanish or at the least be diminished.

I'm not trying to pound SWA. Just speculating. Lower your hackles.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

You're missing my point. Southweast has always had a cost advantage in this regards over other carriers with multiple aircraft types. If/when the 787 comes to SWA, that advantage will vanish or at the least be diminished.

I'm not trying to pound SWA. Just speculating. Lower your hackles.

Sorry, I must type like I'm hackled. But I'm not

When SWA had the -200 fleet with the 300 and 700 fleets there seemed to be a lot of maintenance that was not common across the fleet. But a lot of routine maintenance has always been contracted out.

I'm figuring (And it is just a wishful prognostication) that when the carbon fiber (larger?) airplane comes to SWA it will be in large enough quantity to not be a maintenance headache.

My other theory is that other carriers who get the 787 will face the many fleet type maintenance issue as well so it will not confer an advantage to them over SWA. The switch to the 787 will be expensive for everyone unless a new carrier launches with 787s.


But SWA will need all the advantage it can get as the hedges go away and employee costs go up.


BTW, I do think AA will be one of the few to manage the coming huge fleet replacement well. CAL seems to be doing it well too.

 

[lowecur]

I won't be asking Lehman brothers their opinion on airlines. You have to be client, or subscribe to HH.

Did you notice how the street was so surprised by SWA's numbers?? Nice pop in the stock. I knew it was coming. Did Lehman?? The street gets surprised by many companies when earnings come out. SWA is no different. It's one of hundreds of companies that "surprise." Gary Chase's statement was based on past history and data rather than a crystal ball. I would bet he's spot on.

What do you think confers extra knowledge to the parent of a pilot? We are usually the last to know anything. That reference was strictly my perception that HH can be somewhat biased on her SWA opinions. To print the Lehmans story showed me she can be objective at times. Incidently, she broke the ATA deal at MDW before anyone else, although I doubt she used her son as the source. She has great connections in this industry.

These analysts have to make up stories to please their clients. They use qualifiers like it is their "estimate" or "unless market forces change". These statements have nothing to do with estimates or market forces. They were made based on past data from the DOT.


Well, the market is always changing. We have to anticipate that change. All of us will be wrong in one or more of our predictions. But some predictions are so lame (obvious) or wrong they stand out.

Again, this is no prediction. It is based on past historical data from the DOT, so I'm sure it's spot on. Airline Mgt has been known to call analysts on their statements. Let's see if Gary Kelly has any comments on this.

Chase's comments also stated that the short routes have been leading the yield and RASM increases, and questions whether the same success will occur when SWA offers fewer discount seats on the medium routes as further hedging attrition unfolds in 2007. These increased fares should begin to face stiff competition as other LCC's grow and the legacy's balance sheets begin to stabilize.

imp:

 

[canyonblue]

Imagine, all this coming from the mother of a son who is a pilot for SWA.

Actually it's the sister of a retired SWA pilot, but what would you know?uke:

 

[lowecur]

Actually it's the sister of a retired SWA pilot, but what would you know?uke: Ooooo that was wet!

Nice to see you didn't criticize her. Afterall, I'm sure her brother would be glad to get you in a submission hold and make you weeeeee like Bobby in Deliverance.

imp:

 

[SWA/FO]

I gotta back up SWA/FO on this particular post.

I have many friends who were frozen like a deer in the headlights after 9/11. They stayed like this for years. Some are still holding out hope that their old line numbers at AA, DAL, UAL and USAir are worth protecting.

They chose not pursue ANYTHING. No 737 type, no app to UPS or FedEX. In fact more than half just put their head in the sand. They are bumming in the reserves or got out of the industry at much less pay. (Some who left the industry or went back on active duty are doing very well, I don't count those guys in this.)

One dude is letting his wife support him as he plays Mr. Mom. She looks like she has aged 15 years over the last 3.

All the while some pursued, and got, jobs at FedEx, UPS, SWA, JetBlue and Airtran.

You gotta wonder if it was a good move to trade a 1997-2000 date of hire at a previous leading employer for another year at the bottom. Time will tell.


"Chance favors the prepared mind"

the SWA/FO says: "thanks for the support".