So where does the next generation come from???

[ruhroa]

I read with interest the following commentary.

"Jeff Skiles was serving as first officer to Sully Sullenberger when US Airways Flight 1549 successfully ditched in the Hudson and last week he sat beside Scott Maurer, father of a victim of Continental Connection (Colgan) Flight 3407, to push for changes in minimum federal standards for pilots. While 1549 ended relatively well, all aboard Flight 3407, plus one on the ground, perished when that commuter flight fell into a Buffalo suburb early this year. Skiles said the cockpit transcript from Flight 3407 indicated to him that the pilots of that flight "had no idea what they were doing and shouldn't even have been there," GoUpstate.com reported. Skiles and Maurer held a press conference at the Maurers' home Thursday, asserting that standards for commercial pilots should be similar, regardless of how many passengers they're flying. "You used to have five years or more in the industry before you could even look at getting a job at a regional airline," said Skiles, who added that the "fast-food wages" at commuters means "you cannot get trained professional pilots" to fill those jobs. Skiles and Maurer are urging legislative action, and some feel there's more to the problem.


James Ray, media spokesman for the US Airline Pilots Association, argues that commuter carriers fly under the radar in that they don't compete for customers. They earn passengers through contracts with major airlines, which Ray says often go to the lowest bidder. Skiles told reporters that his paycheck and benefits account for less than $3.50 of each ticket's price, adding, "Would you pay that to have Sully and me up there in the cockpit?"

The question I have is this..........
1. If the military is not producing the pilots, General aviation pilot starts are way down, and now in summation we need much more "flight time" to get a flying job.......... Where and what is the pipeline to get the right candidates ???? not right this minute but in the future

notice I am not disputing the assessment, I am asking for the realistic answer.........

 

[ACL65PILOT]

The will try the MPL, and when that does not produce the pilots needed they will need to pay for them. That is when this job may have a chance of getting better.

 

[Mike man]

So where does the next generation come from???

\

Well, when and man and a woman...

Seriously I think that airlines will run out of applicants (completely) or congress will have cut off the airlines hands to accept applicants with the 1500TT minimum (not over night but it will happen), let me explain:

1500TT minimum requirement to enter an airline cockpit (all 121 carriers) is not bad and there are many folks out there today with 1500TT itching to get a job.

It is a downward spiral, and will get much worse in several years say like 6 or 7 years after 3 years from now when the retirements pick up and folks can get back in the cockpit again.

Congress certainly has a knack for acting on the present and letting the next generation or two figure out the real problem (but they don't worry because the next generation will figure it out)

 

[zawillif]

You're going to have to drastically increase wages so that more kids in high school trying to pick a college and profession will say: "Wow, being a pilot is worth my time and money. I should do that."

 

[Lucky Strike]

They'll up the retirement age again to stave off a crew shortage emergency. "Fly 'Til Ya Die!!!"

 

[ualdriver]

The question I have is this..........
1. If the military is not producing the pilots, General aviation pilot starts are way down, and now in summation we need much more "flight time" to get a flying job.......... Where and what is the pipeline to get the right candidates ???? not right this minute but in the future

notice I am not disputing the assessment, I am asking for the realistic answer.........

1) I don't think anyone can make the statement "the military is not producing pilots" unless someone can post verifiable, year over year numbers for at least the past 10 years or so (to identify trends) that show that in previous years the military was producing X amount of pilots and now they're producing Y amount of pilots and Y is significantly less than X and that's going to continue for the next decade, say.

2) General aviation pilot starts are way down? Show me ANYTHING that proves that statement. The FAA, on its website, shows how many pilots are "produced," by certificate, for a rolling 10 year period. The latest data they have up is for 2008 as 2009 hasn't ended yet. There is NOTHING that indicates (so far) that there is a pilot shortage, as far as production is concerned. And remember, even if there is a pilot production slowdown that shows up in 2009 (and 2010?), these pilots are going to stack up like cord wood on the sidelines because there are no jobs, and Age 65 still has 3 years to go. Don't forget there are 1000's of experienced pilots sitting on the sidelines waiting for employment. Probably 1000's more U.S. citizens sitting in Dubai, Tokyo, and other foreign places that would love to come home to America and fly.

3) *IF* entry level regional jobs end up requiring higher flight time than they do now (and that's a big *IF* because the legislation hasn't been completed yet), then perhaps that will put a squeeze on some regionals. They're simply going to have to raise pay in order to pull experienced pilots from areas those experienced pilots fled to while the airline job spiraled into the toilet. If entry level wages at the airlines came up to the level that other professionals in other fields enjoy, perhaps the new "training grounds" will become corporate aviation, for example, instead of the other way around. Perhaps the experienced pilots who flew for a few years and got out by joining the ranks of non-aviation jobs can be lured to come back. I think it's hard to say right now with so many moving parts.

 

[another cfii]

1) I don't think anyone can make the statement "the military is not producing pilots" unless someone can post verifiable, year over year numbers for at least the past 10 years or so (to identify trends) that show that in previous years the military was producing X amount of pilots and now they're producing Y amount of pilots and Y is significantly less than X and that's going to continue for the next decade, say.

Look at the AF's unmanned aircraft program. I just read a magazine outlining the future of this program for the armed forces for this country. It's quite staggering. Even though it is still in it's infancy, but looks like the military is commiting to it more than previous projects, i.e. F22 Raptor, SR71 and such. In fact in that magazine, it stated how many less slots the AF is offering now for "real" aircrafts. Just my 2 cents.

 

[jmreii]

1) I don't think anyone can make the statement "the military is not producing pilots" unless someone can post verifiable, year over year numbers for at least the past 10 years or so (to identify trends) that show that in previous years the military was producing X amount of pilots and now they're producing Y amount of pilots and Y is significantly less than X and that's going to continue for the next decade, say.

2) General aviation pilot starts are way down? Show me ANYTHING that proves that statement. The FAA, on its website, shows how many pilots are "produced," by certificate, for a rolling 10 year period. The latest data they have up is for 2008 as 2009 hasn't ended yet. There is NOTHING that indicates (so far) that there is a pilot shortage, as far as production is concerned. And remember, even if there is a pilot production slowdown that shows up in 2009 (and 2010?), these pilots are going to stack up like cord wood on the sidelines because there are no jobs, and Age 65 still has 3 years to go. Don't forget there are 1000's of experienced pilots sitting on the sidelines waiting for employment. Probably 1000's more U.S. citizens sitting in Dubai, Tokyo, and other foreign places that would love to come home to America and fly.

3) *IF* entry level regional jobs end up requiring higher flight time than they do now (and that's a big *IF* because the legislation hasn't been completed yet), then perhaps that will put a squeeze on some regionals. They're simply going to have to raise pay in order to pull experienced pilots from areas those experienced pilots fled to while the airline job spiraled into the toilet. If entry level wages at the airlines came up to the level that other professionals in other fields enjoy, perhaps the new "training grounds" will become corporate aviation, for example, instead of the other way around. Perhaps the experienced pilots who flew for a few years and got out by joining the ranks of non-aviation jobs can be lured to come back. I think it's hard to say right now with so many moving parts.

I agree with everything you mentioned except no. 3, the legacy carriers care about the major cities while if the smaller cities fell off the earth tomorrow they would not shed a tear. The regional airlines are on their own, if they think they can make a profit serving smaller communities it is time to step on the green where they can be seen. I doubt very seriously, if the regional would try anything on their own.

 

[N1atEcon]

The majority of our industy needs a reset. I was having a beer a few weeks ago with a guy who's dad used to fly 747's in Asia. His dad would get picked up in a limo to go to work. I am not saying we all need to be treated like kings but this race to the bottom is insane.

 

[414Flyer]

You're going to have to drastically increase wages so that more kids in high school trying to pick a college and profession will say: "Wow, being a pilot is worth my time and money. I should do that."

Well the problem is that whose in high school, and often college aviation programs like ERAU and UND for that matter, looking to become a pilot, usually do not care about the pay. Its the typical "I do not care what I will get paid, flying jets is my dream and if I am flying, that is all it will take to be happy. I do not think I can do anything with my life but fly" blah blah blah, we have all seen and read the types.

Those types are a big problem, because they literally will fly for free, or pay to fly at places like Gulfstream. And because being the single minded flying or nothing else types that they are, they have no other skill set to make money will, so they are more apt to eat the proverbial shiite sandwich rather than tell managements to pound sand.