So... What are the BIG benefits to F9 with Republic?

[Porch]

Ill start off... the damn CA$H boys! I'm off right now to get a brand new Hyundai!

 

[Minimaniac]

Some benefits (serious, not trying to joke) are...

- F9 pilots get to keep their jobs
- F9 pilots get to keep their seats
- F9 pilots get to stay on their equipment
- F9 pilots get to keep their base
- F9 pilots get to keep their pay
- F9 pilots enter into integration talks with an advantage relative to their standing against the SWAPA pilots.
- F9 pilots will have the ability to help shape the RAH pilot group, and help shape the RAH contract to protect their current QOL.
- F9 pilots are not facing a guaranteed furlough
- F9 pilots get a chance to continue flying the brand they built, which means a lot to a lot of people
- F9 pilots are likely to end up with higher overall seniority compared with an integration at SWA
- F9 staff (mechanics, office staff, flight attendants) are more likely to keep their jobs, since many of the operations positions did not exist at RAH already.
- F9 employees are able to maintain a lot of continuity in their lives based on the stated intentions of RAH management.

Yes, some or all of the above can change over time, but RAH offered more hope for stability in terms of QOL, assuming RAH does not collapse under its ambition. F9 pilots faced the slow wind down of their fleet, which was going to lead to definite furloughs, highly likely base changes, and a future of being at the bottom of a seniority list at a time when growth is very limited and jobs are scarce. SWA may have offered more long term benefit, but MY OPINION is that the likely short term losses were just too much for the majority of F9 pilots to accept. But, I am not on their side of the fence, so my perspective may be off.

 

[kf4amu]

They will not keep their pay. No financial analyst predicts this merger will work unless their pay decreases drastically.

 

[climb2slow]

And financial analysts are always right...just like pilots on Flightinfo.com

 

[Minimaniac]

Why not? Bedford said he wanted to extend their current contract. There has been no reports of RAH going to the bankruptcy court judge asking for relief on the F9 pilot CBA. The current pay structure has allowed for profits. Pay concessions were not a contingency of the bankruptcy exit plan.

After bankruptcy exit next month, there will be no chance for Bedford to reduce F9 wages until the next RAH CBA is passed. Given that F9 Airbus wages are not industry leading, allow F9 to be profitable, and are acceptable to F9 pilots and RAH pilots, I see no reason for the next RAH contract to lower the current Airbus rate.

The F9 Airbus rates may not go up, but they will be around for a while. No pilots wants to see them go down, and management has no case for lowering them.

 

[Cornelius]

Porch, give it a break. And everybody else wanting to reply, the past is the past and F9 will try to make the best of this situation.

 

[StaySeated]

They will not keep their pay. No financial analyst predicts this merger will work unless their pay decreases drastically.

I will take it easy on you and ask for just ONE example supporting your statement.

I am not naive enough to think that this is going to a "good" thing, but F9 has the lowest block hour cost on the planet (not something to necessarily be proud of, but it is a fact).

Republic is going to grow the airbus fleet, and that is a fact. The problem, to some, is at who's expense will that growth depend upon.

 

[scoreboardII]

not something to necessarily be proud of, but it is a fact

So when are you boys and girls gonna man/women up and ask for pay that is respectful of your training, experience, and professionalism?

 

[Vegaspilot99]

May not keep their base. BB has said 319s are heading to MKE and a F9 guy I talked to tonight said MKE may be on the next bid.

 

[maxblast72]

Republic is going to grow the airbus fleet, and that is a fact. The problem, to some, is at who's expense will that growth depend upon.

Did the Frontier pilots agree to the unlimited scope that Bedford was looking for? If so, wouldn't that point to growing the E-190 fleet more than the Airbus fleet?

 

[Porch]

So when are you boys and girls gonna man/women up and ask for pay that is respectful of your training, experience, and professionalism?

They already asked for it going with RAH... And it isn't going up. I don't want to hear any F9'er beechen about the economy and how they can't afford to buy drinks for the crews! That's what you'll be gettin a second job for. Its all about the short-term QOL!... Short-sightedness is a beech Isn't it?!?

 

[GuppyWN]

Did the Frontier pilots agree to the unlimited scope that Bedford was looking for? If so, wouldn't that point to growing the E-190 fleet more than the Airbus fleet?

Yes. I worry about that as well.

On a positive note and I'm being serious so don't flame me -

My buds seem to be pretty content and seem to think or have been told that F9 might double or possibly triple in size because of RAH.

Gup

 

[Porch]

Yes. I worry about that as well.

On a positive note and I'm being serious so don't flame me -

My buds seem to be pretty content and seem to think or have been told that F9 might double or possibly triple in size because of RAH.

Gup

Wow... Thanks for passing that on! No flame

 

[kf4amu]

I will take it easy on you and ask for just ONE example supporting your statement.

"Republic will likely replace a significant number of Frontier's aircraft with new regional jets - E190s are the likely choice - to lower costs. For example, the maintenance costs on the E190s will be a fraction of those spent on Frontier's current Airbus fleet because of the maintenance-cost holiday of new aircraft. Pilot block hour crew costs are 58% lower at Republic ($100 per capita) versus Frontier ($170) and this suggests that Republic will want to reap the benefits of operating its own lower-cost crews. "
-http://seekingalpha.com/article/156382-southwest-airlines-missed-opportunity-frontier-goes-to-republic


Edit: I found another

"Airline financial analysts such as Vaughn Cordle of AirlineForecasts LLC expect a brutal war of attrition in Denver. Republic-controlled Frontier is unlikely to win unless Republic replaces some of Frontier's Airbus aircraft with its own regional jets flown by pilots making substantially less than what Frontier pilots are paid.

He estimates that Frontier's pilots cost the carrier $170 an hour in wages and benefits, compared with $99 an hour for Republic's regional jet pilots; Southwest's pilots cost $290 an hour, he estimates.

Cordle said that although Southwest pilots make more, the carrier can absorb deep losses in Denver that Frontier cannot.

Cutting pilot costs "is the only way Republic's Frontier survives," he said Friday, noting that Republic is in the process of switching out bigger planes for smaller ones with Midwest Airlines, the Milwaukee-based carrier that Republic officially bought July 31. "
-http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/industries/airlines/stories/081509dnbussouthwest.4262f30.html



"Accept lower pay or we'll replace these Airbii with E190's and their 37,000/yr F/Os".


Why wouldnt they? As a shareholder I would demand it.

 

[dougdrvr]

There aren't any Republic FOs making maximum FO scale ($37/hr) None of them have been there that long

 

[Popeye0537]

Did the Frontier pilots agree to the unlimited scope that Bedford was looking for? If so, wouldn't that point to growing the E-190 fleet more than the Airbus fleet?

He's gonna grow both fleets ala B6. And what difference does it make when we have one pilot list, you can bid what you want. You can fly the 190 or the stay on the bus.

Putting the bus in MKE makes sense right now because our loads have been 100% with the 94 seaters. I cant see it becoming a base, but I can see it doing MKE-SEA.

 

[kf4amu]

There aren't any Republic FOs making maximum FO scale ($37/hr) None of them have been there that long

Right I forgot the average Captain was 27 years old.

 

[Minimaniac]

He estimates that Frontier's pilots cost the carrier $170 an hour in wages and benefits, compared with $99 an hour for Republic's regional jet pilots; Southwest's pilots cost $290 an hour, he estimates.

The problem with that assessment is that it leaves out the impending increase in wages for the Republic pilots. If Republic pilots were to fly the Airbus, a new payscale would have to be negotiated. That would close the gap between his ESTIMATED (for effect) $99/hr for RAH pilots and $170/hr for F9 pilots. If the Airbus was offered to RAH pilots, it would go pretty senior. The senior captains are already making close to $99/hr by themselves on the 175/190. Add in the raise in pay for the 'Bus and the FO pay (even at $30/hr for 2yr RAH FO), and the margin between F9 pay and RAH pay becomes very minimal.

But, to be more realistic, F9 pilots are still operating under their contract. Bedford CAN'T replace them with RAH pilots anytime in the near future. Integration will have to occur first. F9 pilots are not going to let integration happen quickly if they don't get protections that keep them on the Airbus with their current pay. The soonest Bedford could get crew pay savings on the Airbus is either at the end of an arbitrated and appealed integration (look how quickly that can go...US Airways), or upon the signing of a new CBA at RAH, which will have increased crew costs. Both are not going to happen in 2009, and 2010 is even pushing it.

That $99 vs. $170 number will be much closer to $150 vs $170 after new pay is negotiated for RAH pilots on larger equipment. And that is my conservative estimate. That assumes captains making in the 105 range (5yr), and FO's making 45/hr (2yr Airbus). All of you would ridicule RAH for those rates, yet look how those rediculously low rates narrow the gap between the alleged crew costs.

Crew pay will not make a difference. Even if Bedford could call all the shots and ignore everyone's CBA, and he puts RAH pilots on the Airbus and F9 pilots on the 170, any cost savings would be negated by the cost of re-training 1200 pilots (600 F9, 600 RAH), paying for displacement moving costs, and paying for extra staff to buffer the transition time. Not to mention, the costs incurred operationally by having a whole fleet being operated by pilots who are unfamiliar with the equipment would be pretty high.

Southwest's low fares have not prevented Frontier from profiting in Denver. Why would all of that suddenly change? Frontier customers are loyal to Frontier, and will continue to stay loyal as long as they get the service they are accustomed to. Since F9 pilots, gate staff, flight attendants, mechanics, and ramp staff will continue to work F9 flights, I see no reason for the customer experience to change.

 

[avrodriver]

So when are you boys and girls gonna man/women up and ask for pay that is respectful of your training, experience, and professionalism?

Just a hunch...but it ain't gonna be while they are in bankruptcy.

You wanna give a pilot group some s.hit why don't you go badger the AirTran guys. Their company's been in pretty dam.n good shape for the last decade and still no new pilot contract, not that they haven't been trying.

Give these guys a break already

 

[dougdrvr]

Right I forgot the average Captain was 27 years old.

Their age doesn't mean anything, 50% of RAH pilots were hired in 2007 and beyond.

 

[Cardinal]

Pilot block hour crew costs are 58% lower at Republic ($100 per capita) versus Frontier ($170) and this suggests that Republic will want to reap the benefits of operating its own lower-cost crews. "
-http://seekingalpha.com/article/156382-southwest-airlines-missed-opportunity-frontier-goes-to-republic

I discount this entire article because it's based on incorrect assumptions. Our Airbus operation is lower CASM than the 190s (6 versus 7) Further, and most obbviously, F9s cokcpit costs are NOT 170/hr. And average Frontier flight deck's hourly rates total more than 200/hr, and that's before the B-fund, 401k match, and insurance costs. Absolute nonsense.

 

[FSIGRAD]

There aren't any Republic FOs making maximum FO scale ($37/hr) None of them have been there that long

There are quite a few myself included.

 

[kf4amu]

I discount this entire article because it's based on incorrect assumptions. Our Airbus operation is lower CASM than the 190s (6 versus 7) Further, and most obbviously, F9s cokcpit costs are NOT 170/hr. And average Frontier flight deck's hourly rates total more than 200/hr, and that's before the B-fund, 401k match, and insurance costs. Absolute nonsense.

Where did you get your cockpit cost info? I'm going on what the analysts are saying.

 

[Cardinal]

Analysts are mostly idiots in this business. And the Vaughn Cordle quoted in the first article is an fing scab, to boot.

airlinepilotcentral.com is a good place to start. The FAPA CBA is also helpful, along with the 8/1/09 Frontier seniority list. Bear in mind that no Frontier FO is on less than 3rd year pay. Lowest cost scenario, most junior FO paired with most junior CA = $211/hr, book rate. A seniority class from the dead middle of the list = $228/hr.

 

[dougdrvr]

There are quite a few myself included.

Perhaps, but since 55% of the RAH seniority list has been hired since 8/30/2005 there can't be that many unless they chose not to upgrade or couldn't.

 

[kf4amu]

Analysts are mostly idiots in this business. And the Vaughn Cordle quoted in the first article is an fing scab, to boot.

airlinepilotcentral.com is a good place to start. The FAPA CBA is also helpful, along with the 8/1/09 Frontier seniority list. Bear in mind that no Frontier FO is on less than 3rd year pay. Lowest cost scenario, most junior FO paired with most junior CA = $211/hr, book rate. A seniority class from the dead middle of the list = $228/hr.

I think that just adds more fuel to the argument that they will have to take an even bigger pay cut or watch their flying get replaced by gel haired Ipod listeners for 99bucks an hour cockpit costs.

 

[airlinepilot]

Would Republic Airlines really pull Frontier out of Denver?

Just ran accross this article:

http://www.examiner.com/x-15815-Denver-AirlinesAirport-Examiner~y2009m8d27-Would-Republic-Airlines-really-pull-Frontier-out-of-Denver

Let the guessing begin?

 

[Skyboy722]

The problem with that assessment is that it leaves out the impending increase in wages for the Republic pilots. That $99 vs. $170 number will be much closer to $150 vs $170 after new pay is negotiated for RAH pilots on larger equipment. And that is my conservative estimate. .

If you think you're gonna get $150/hr out of Bedford, in any equipment, you're out of your mind. I know Bedford better than that.

 

[scoreboardII]

That should be fair, let F9 fly without taxation while slamming UAL and SWA, yep, thats fair.

 

[Cardinal]

Mayor Hickenlooper has been giving SWA the reach-around since your arrival. Spare me.