He estimates that Frontier's pilots cost the carrier $170 an hour in wages and benefits, compared with $99 an hour for Republic's regional jet pilots; Southwest's pilots cost $290 an hour, he estimates.
The problem with that assessment is that it leaves out the impending increase in wages for the Republic pilots. If Republic pilots were to fly the Airbus, a new payscale would have to be negotiated. That would close the gap between his ESTIMATED (for effect) $99/hr for RAH pilots and $170/hr for F9 pilots. If the Airbus was offered to RAH pilots, it would go pretty senior. The senior captains are already making close to $99/hr by themselves on the 175/190. Add in the raise in pay for the 'Bus and the FO pay (even at $30/hr for 2yr RAH FO), and the margin between F9 pay and RAH pay becomes very minimal.
But, to be more realistic, F9 pilots are still operating under their contract. Bedford CAN'T replace them with RAH pilots anytime in the near future. Integration will have to occur first. F9 pilots are not going to let integration happen quickly if they don't get protections that keep them on the Airbus with their current pay. The soonest Bedford could get crew pay savings on the Airbus is either at the end of an arbitrated and appealed integration (look how quickly that can go...US Airways), or upon the signing of a new CBA at RAH, which will have increased crew costs. Both are not going to happen in 2009, and 2010 is even pushing it.
That $99 vs. $170 number will be much closer to $150 vs $170 after new pay is negotiated for RAH pilots on larger equipment. And that is my conservative estimate. That assumes captains making in the 105 range (5yr), and FO's making 45/hr (2yr Airbus). All of you would ridicule RAH for those rates, yet look how those rediculously low rates narrow the gap between the alleged crew costs.
Crew pay will not make a difference. Even if Bedford could call all the shots and ignore everyone's CBA, and he puts RAH pilots on the Airbus and F9 pilots on the 170, any cost savings would be negated by the cost of re-training 1200 pilots (600 F9, 600 RAH), paying for displacement moving costs, and paying for extra staff to buffer the transition time. Not to mention, the costs incurred operationally by having a whole fleet being operated by pilots who are unfamiliar with the equipment would be pretty high.
Southwest's low fares have not prevented Frontier from profiting in Denver. Why would all of that suddenly change? Frontier customers are loyal to Frontier, and will continue to stay loyal as long as they get the service they are accustomed to. Since F9 pilots, gate staff, flight attendants, mechanics, and ramp staff will continue to work F9 flights, I see no reason for the customer experience to change.
