SkyWest May be interested in Comair? Price--1 peso?

[General Lee]

blah blah blah if it means staying out of a cockpit with the likes of El General, then I loooove my 50 seat barbie jet

Enjoy it while it lasts.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[say again]

Thats pretty much everyone who has gone to Dumpta from a regional. They forget where they came from and how they got to where they are now. In fact, there is a guy who posts here quite regularly who was at ASA for 12 or so years, and now he bags on regionals. There is a second guy who was a big supporter of the RJDC and somehow he slipped through Delta's foolproof interview process and now he's God and everyone else is a low life. I don't understand how that happens. I used to be a freight dog but I don't hate them because I left and moved on. In fact, I quite enjoy talking to them and miss the lifestyle and the good guys who worked there.

I find it funny that some of the biggest egotistical jerks out here (such as the one you quote) commute on RJ's to work and back home. They won't say hi in the terminal, bash on you trying to make a living, but are your best friend when they walk into your cockpit for a ride home.

He bags the regionals in general, not the people. Very huge difference. Don't be so soft skinned. You all sound like a bunch of jealous, whining babies when you complain about all this. Regional airlines suck.

 

[johnpeace]

With an eventual new contract (initial negotiations start soon) and huge retirements in the next 3-5 years (not everyone going to 65), I would say many of the pilots could come from the Military (what's left) and pilots from other airlines, probably LCCs and maybe other legacies. There will be huge advancement in some years with over 800 pilots leaving due to retirements. That would be huge for pay and airplane size. A lot of current LCCs have very few retirements in the near future scheduled, which means stagnation. I just don't think it will be too hard to attract qualified people. Now new starts at the regionals, that will be a lot tougher. Your regional costs are very tight because the airlines you feed DEMAND it. If your costs go up, you could lose your flying. Those new rules will make it harder for your airlines to stay efficient enough to keep long term contracts, since you can't offer enough money right now to attract higher time pilots. IF you do raise the rates (which would be good for all pilots), your airlines will have to cut elsewhere to cover it, and that means shutting down other flights that aren't as profitable. SkyWest is trying to get so big that it would hurt the legacies if they decided to kick SkyWest to the curb. Regardless, the loss of 50 seaters and new hiring and rest rules aren't going to help the Regional industry at all.


Bye Bye--General Lee

That's interesting...I guess we all look for what we want to see in our own crystal balls.

At the same time your predicting higher costs at the regional partners...you predict that DALs costs will increase too (higher pay)...probably even disproportionately higher than at the regional partners.

So...I don't understand how if DAL crews get more expensive (higher pay for domestic crews) and lower paid regional partner crews get more expensive...we wind up with anything other than a wash?

It's going to get more expensive to operate ANY airline over the next 3-5 years.

<shrug>

I suppose we'll see.

 

[Redan]

I pretty much have to agree with Say Again's post above.
First, he has one of the better avatars on FI.
Second, yes regional airlines suck. The QOL for crews at stalwarts like CMR, XJT, SKW, CHQ and ASA has rapidly declined in recent times. What a remarkably different
picture from just a few years ago. Will be interesting to see what the future holds.

 

[On Your Six]

50-seat RJ = dinosaur....

Hate to say it, but I agree with GL.

It's all about managing and spreading costs, baby. The regional industry is in for some big changes going forward as 50 seat jets become even more uneconomical (especially if fuel costs increase). That is why SKW is trying to both build its negotiating leverage and diversify its customer portfolio. They can see the writing on the wall. 50 seat RJs will only work when there is no route competition - otherwise you can't spread the operating costs easily over the 50 seats and still make a decent profit. You need high fares to do that and competition reduces those fares. Putting an RJ on a competitive route just doesn't make much sense.

Expect more Q400s and ATR72s in the future - cheaper to operate and more seats to spread the costs over. I can see CR9s and E170s gaining in popularity (due to low cost and operating flexibility/range) but scope clauses probably reduce their potential fleet growth. On the positive side, that should hopefully translate into more mainline jobs if airlines start incorporating E170/190 and C-Series sized aircraft into their mainline operations...

 

[Medeco]

This is like ground hog day, the GL and on your six, have both been predicting the end of RJ's for almost 10yrs now.

On a daily basis.

 

[JustaNumber]

Mainline jobs are BETTER jobs. Better pay, better benefits, and better variety.

General,
This is not flame--it's a logical point:
You are correct above. Mainline jobs are better because they have significantly better total compensation. Yes, regionals are facing big changes in the near future; more than likely they won't be able to properly staff the flying that needs to be done. If you were correct that regional jets are going away anyway, then you would be contradictory--how could they have trouble staffing airplanes that don't exist? Logic says that even though 50 seaters might be in less demand in the future, overall regionals and the flying they do are not going away, like it or not. So if the flying needs to be done, and enough pilots aren't available at regional wages, what will give?

My crystal ball says that if a demand for flying can't be met with additional pilots, compensation will increase until sufficient pilots are available. Sure the total capacity purchase agreement cost will go up, but what is the alternative? You claim that regionals will get so expensive that it would make financial sense for Delta to do the flying. So the big question is, would your pilot group be willing to fly an RJ for less than a 22 year-old kid just out of school would? That is the ultimate question, and until you say yes, the 22 year old will be doing the flying. You can't have better compensation than the regionals while simultaneously doing the flying for cheaper. It just doesn't compute.

 

[P38JLightning]

It all comes down to scope. With the bottom falling out of the 50 seat market/former growth frenzy, we're seeing a dramatic increase in the 70-76 seat market. In addition, the entire regional industry is chomping at the bit to fly 77+ seaters by any means necessary. It will take some hard core bargaining by the legacy MEC's to either secure that new flying in house or to prevent it's existance altogether. Mainline managements will throw tons of cookies targeted at 51% of the pilot groups and/or NC's to get this flying. The only way to prevent it WILL be to turn down bigger raises in good times and settle for smaller raises or maybe even no raises, or in bad times to accept larger cuts.

The current DAL 85 big RJ and UCAL 50 seater scope issues are prime examples of where the priorities of MEC/NC's reside and show a great deal of intent for future negotiations. By their deeds you shall judge them. Watch how these two scenarios are handeled in times of profits and cooperation needed from pilot groups. If scope (outsourcing) reversal doesn't start happening now, it likely never will.

 

[johnsonrod]

This is like ground hog day, the GL and on your six, have both been predicting the end of RJ's for almost 10yrs now.

On a daily basis.

Well, I'd say the opinion of RJs has changed dramatically in the last 10 years - wouldn't you? Fred Reid formerly of Delta loved CRJs. Now RJs are being parked. Passengers, for the most part, hate RJs unless it is the only way to get to their destination. I hear it all the time as people board my airplane, "Oh no, not this tube again. I thought I had booked a bigger airplane..."

I'm trying, like most people, to get out of the regional business as fast as I can because both scope and economics are making RJs far less attractive.

 

[JustaNumber]

If scope (outsourcing) reversal doesn't start happening now, it likely never will.

And if history can be used as any sort of guide...

 

[JustaNumber]

Passengers, for the most part, hate RJs unless it is the only way to get to their destination. I hear it all the time as people board my airplane, "Oh no, not this tube again. I thought I had booked a bigger airplane..."

Passengers also hate "those WWII airplanes" (turboprops), but 777's don't service HHH yet. Passengers will ALWAYS b1tch about something. Remember how the public made the subject of "airline food" a cruel joke, but now they complain about never getting any of it, although they won't buy a higher fare with meal service. Passengers will ALWAYS end up purchasing whatever fare is 50 cents cheaper on travelocity. Come to think of it, passengers hate the airlines in general. But when the rubber meets the road, they still won't pay 50 cents more for a better experience. Don't worry, RJs will still be around for a while.

 

[buscap]

Actually the best solution is for all the flying to be at mainline; big jet, little jet, prop. With no codesharing. That's it plain and simple. Suck it all up in one big Ross Perot thhhooppp!!

But, be dumb enough to allow one little Caravan fly around on a mainline ticket, and the cancer will spread again.

General; are you willing to do that?

If not, then game on. I'm less expensive, but a much safer and better pilot than you. May the best man win.

 

[ePilot22]

Well, I'd say the opinion of RJs has changed dramatically in the last 10 years - wouldn't you? Fred Reid formerly of Delta loved CRJs. Now RJs are being parked. Passengers, for the most part, hate RJs unless it is the only way to get to their destination. I hear it all the time as people board my airplane, "Oh no, not this tube again. I thought I had booked a bigger airplane..."

I'm trying, like most people, to get out of the regional business as fast as I can because both scope and economics are making RJs far less attractive.

It didn't take you long to show up in another General thread. Lame.




eP.

 

[Metro752]

It's kind of creepy isn't it?

 

[makersmarc]

Passengers also hate "those WWII airplanes" (turboprops), but 777's don't service HHH yet. Passengers will ALWAYS b1tch about something. Remember how the public made the subject of "airline food" a cruel joke, but now they complain about never getting any of it, although they won't buy a higher fare with meal service. Passengers will ALWAYS end up purchasing whatever fare is 50 cents cheaper on travelocity. Come to think of it, passengers hate the airlines in general. But when the rubber meets the road, they still won't pay 50 cents more for a better experience. Don't worry, RJs will still be around for a while.

Some would say that you are cynical. Some would say that you are a realist.

I agree with you.