Skinny on ASA?

[ASApuppy]

And how is flying S3C on Delta any different from any other DCI carrier (CMR being the exception)?

Well, for one thing, we are 100% a Delta operation. Just like CMR. All other carriers that enjoy a lower boarding priority have diversified contracts and fly for multiple mainline carriers. They enjoy some form of pass benefit on all of them. The other problem arising is the rumor that as our boarding priority falls, mainline Delta passholders are going to retain their S2/S3's on ASA.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if our management signs off on this to force senior commuters to quit. It seems to be their focus lately. Can't wait for the day that nobody shows up for a newhire class. Only then will they 'start' to wake up.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Sweptback. Point taken and I hope that you are correct. But, word on the other side of the street is much different. That said, DAL can do anything they want to. I would venture to guess that this will not hurt SKW's bottom line at all.

 

[Tarzan]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if our management signs off on this to force senior commuters to quit. It seems to be their focus lately. Can't wait for the day that nobody shows up for a newhire class. Only then will they 'start' to wake up.

Bingo! We have a winner!

Newhires not showing up? I think we still have a while to go for that. People are still applying to Go Jet and Mesa. Those pools will have to dry up completely first.

 

[atlcrashpad]

Well, for one thing, we are 100% a Delta operation. Just like CMR. All other carriers that enjoy a lower boarding priority have diversified contracts and fly for multiple mainline carriers. They enjoy some form of pass benefit on all of them. The other problem arising is the rumor that as our boarding priority falls, mainline Delta passholders are going to retain their S2/S3's on ASA.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if our management signs off on this to force senior commuters to quit. It seems to be their focus lately. Can't wait for the day that nobody shows up for a newhire class. Only then will they 'start' to wake up.

Why wood DAL retain their S2's and S3's? It's a rumor to stir dah pot... don't get yo panties in a wad... DAL will bez S3c on all DCI cept CMR.... Bouyyyyyyy...

 

[wms]

I don't believe this for a second. First, if DAL were to do anything they would do it before they left BK because they can void contracts at will. Second, if DAL were to remove 40% of ASA's flying, the only way that SkyWest would agree is if they took over the flying. With all the growth at SkyWest right now, they don't have the capacity to replace 40% of ASA's flying. Finally, giving a large chunk of ASA's flying to SkyWest would completely violate the whipsaw principle... the only way it works is if the two airlines are kept roughly the same size and played off each other. If SkyWest is built up to 2-3x the size of ASA, how does that play the airlines off each other?

DAL cannot cancel the contracts at will. Agreements signed in BK can only be changed with the approval of the BK judge. That's what the $125m in escrow was all about when SKYW bought us. To ensure DAL still gave ASA 80% of the ATL DCI departures. If the BK filings had changed the deal DAL would've lost the escrow monies. If it changes now the judge has to approve it. Or it can be changed by renegotiating with SKYW after emergence. I believe the deal has already been made and will be announced when DAL emerges. I also believe the changes in the ramp and the renewed interest in changing pass travel are a part of it.

I think JA doesn't like the ASA pilots being guaranteed 80% of the departures because it gives us some leverage. JA goes to DAL to change the agreement to say SKYW,Inc gets 80% of the ATL DCI departures. DAL says ok but we want the ramp and gates, and changes in pass travel. IMHO

PS The one thing in our favor now is that no other airline has enough pilots to fly it's own schedule much less ours.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

WMS, everything that you have said is true. This is going to be what happens when they exit. It costs SKW nothing and still guarantees them their spot in ATL. It will just be under another banner. SKW airlines.
The projected numbers show it will take them four to six months to hire pilots to replace the ASA pilots. That said they can do anything under our current CBA. It needs to be changed and if there is no change in the TA it is worth nothing.
It this starts happening more people will leave thus shrinking ASA even more. It will get bad enough that pilots will do what they do best. Look out for number one and try to save face. I think that that is where all of this is headed. I hope not and I pray that the NMB will call bs, but we have been down that road before. With us being 10 Million apart I cannot see them releasing us. It is the sad fact. The company will draw it out farther and farther until they get what we want.
I hope I am wrong, but I think that the writing is on the wall. IMHO

 

[HelloNewman]

Well, for one thing, we are 100% a Delta operation. Just like CMR. All other carriers that enjoy a lower boarding priority have diversified contracts and fly for multiple mainline carriers. They enjoy some form of pass benefit on all of them. The other problem arising is the rumor that as our boarding priority falls, mainline Delta passholders are going to retain their S2/S3's on ASA.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if our management signs off on this to force senior commuters to quit. It seems to be their focus lately. Can't wait for the day that nobody shows up for a newhire class. Only then will they 'start' to wake up.

Translation you will simply travel like every other DCI airline that is not wholly owned. Lets face it you guys have not been wholly owned since 2005 and no longer deserve your current pass benefits. Delta won't travel ahead of you on your own airline. The do not travel ahead of us on ours. It doesn't matter how many partners you have you don't deserve to be treated any different than the rest of us non wholly owned airlines. If senior commuters quit then so be it.

 

[Snapperhead]

Why wood DAL retain their S2's and S3's? It's a rumor to stir dah pot... don't get yo panties in a wad... DAL will bez S3c on all DCI cept CMR.... Bouyyyyyyy...

Yeah, what he said!!!

 

[~~~^~~~]

The projected numbers show it will take them four to six months to hire pilots to replace the ASA pilots.

Projected by who? If so, why is ASA hiring and getting airplanes?

Four months would be over 400 pilots a month plus the management structure. Six months would still be 266 pilots, plus normal SkyWest growth, plus attrition. Unless ALPA deliberately throws down their strike card I can't see things happening that fast - unless you mean that all 7 DCI carriers are going to carve up ASA's dead body. (anyway, they would have to hire so fast they would risk hiring another "hello newman" and I can't imagine how hard it would be to get newman and his brother through a PC once a year)

ASA-ALPA is more moderate than it was. Bob Arnold is gone, we have a couple of good ASA career gentlemen adding to the representational structure - I'm expecting some very pragmatic & smart people to sit down at the table in April.

The only official word we are getting from management is that nothing is changing.

I guess we will learn more when we see if they start training up new IP's to replace those who have told me they are turning in their notice in the next few weeks. A couple of IP's are planning to leave due to the new TSA regulations and the anticipated pass benefit changes which together make commuting much more difficult.

ACL65 - will Delta let you moonlight at Flight Safety giving RJ Type Rides? If so, I'll teach CBT for you while surfing FlightInfo and checking for Delta's e-mail every 15 minutes.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

All of this is true. It will be difficult. I think that SKW management feels that this pilot group does not have what it takes to throw down. I think that they feel that as the flying is taken away we will sit by. I hope not. I hope that there are enough let to make a stand, but most of the guys that truly cared have given up and have left or are planning on leaving as soon as they can.
Also keep in mind that as DAL emerges they will slowly take back a good deal of the growth that the DCI's have gotten in the last few years. This will allow them to reallocate at a more efficient level. Fact is that most of the flying that we, SKW, CHO and the others have picked up out of Atlanta since 01 has been at mainlines expense. There will be a shift in the other direction. It will be slow at first, but it will pick up over time.
From what the folks at DCI are hinting at the whole portfolio will shrink in the next few years.
I think that the as Certificate will survive whatever they have planned. There are reasons for that. But fact is that when some of our very senior pilots and management pilots are looking at exit strategy's in make one scratch their head.