Sign of the coming hiring boom

[Smarta$$]

I understand that you are passing this on, but I do have to question the logic here. Are all low time pilots excellent, but then become poor performers the more experience they get? If so, will hiring <800 hour pilots mean they will become poor performers between 900-1500 hours at the regional? Or do they only lose brain capacity while teaching others how to fly? How does this work?

Yip himself and those at his conference are trying to create this false narrative about the 1500 hour rule to try and undermine the new law. Disregard his spin on this matter. Actually, disregard most of what he says.

 

[Smarta$$]

WRONG! You should really do some research into the figures your spewing as facts.

straight from the FAA website they issued 8,559 commercial certificates and 4,677 ATP's this is in 2011 alone! data for 2012 is not yet available.

I think the ATP numbers are because regionals are handing them out to fo's during recurrent sim checks. Don't know about the commercials.

Not good for our pilot shortage though......

 

[ualdriver]

WATS (World Airline Training Symposium) @ MCO pilots and the no show rate for interviews and class date is increasing. All regional reported they have almost no pool to draw from. You might be able to pull this stuff from their web site

I remember being at the Job Fairs in the mid 90's all the majors said that had 12,000 applications on hand from qualified applicants, by 1999 those 12,000 had been hired and they were having trouble finding expereinced pilots.

So you're a management pilot, right? You seem to be very concerned about a pilot shortage which I imagine soon will be or presently is a problem. I would also assume that good airline management recognizes problems down the road and plans for them now.

What specific, concrete steps are you and your management team taking NOW to assure that you have the pilots that you will need to run your airline 6 months from now? A year from now? 2 years from now?

 

[pilotyip]

So you're a management pilot, right? You seem to be very concerned about a pilot shortage which I imagine soon will be or presently is a problem. I would also assume that good airline management recognizes problems down the road and plans for them now.

What specific, concrete steps are you and your management team taking NOW to assure that you have the pilots that you will need to run your airline 6 months from now? A year from now? 2 years from now?

Thank you very much for the promotion at my company, I hope it comes with a pay raise LOL.:laugh: I am a guy who trains and checks DA-20 pilots. I have very little input to airline management on how they will approach this problem.

I also administer the recruiting program. I have watching this hiring situation for over 45 years. It comes in cycles, the term "Hiring Boom" may be a bit of a misnomer, that ticks you off, but swings in hiring are very real in this business as we all know. We see the start of a hiring change on the lower end of the business first. The places that have the least desirable jobs, on-demand and regional. I saw in 1989, 1999, 2006, and see it starting again.

My company upper management does not seem to concerned about future hiring. In fact they are profiling that we not hire pilots who are looking at passenger airline career path. Don't hire the young guys who will be looking for other jobs, only hire local guys, only hire pilots with prior experience in the on-demand business, Nice profile if you can find them.

We have been living with a 25-30% no slow rate for both interviews and classes. All I can do is take the raw material they give me and pass'em or bust'em.

 

[ex j-41]

Ever think of what is going to happen if you are on the tail end of the hiring?
People in training now are not going to be able to go from zero hours to 1500 to regional airline captain to majors on less than 10 years. We are already seeing 5 year plus upgrades at the regionals. Figure 2 years min to go from zero to 1500. 5 years to upgrade. 2-3 years as captain to get hired at a major. 10 years give or take.
Those who are starting today are going to be very disappointed at the time it will take to "make it".

 

[Twisted Mind]

Yip adds interesting opinons and perspective to these conversations. Don't bash him just because you don't like what he is saying.

 

[ualdriver]

Thank you very much for the promotion at my company, I hope it comes with a pay raise LOL.:laugh: I am a guy who trains and checks DA-20 pilots. I have very little input to airline management on how they will approach this problem.

I also administer the recruiting program. I have watching this hiring situation for over 45 years. It comes in cycles, the term "Hiring Boom" may be a bit of a misnomer, that ticks you off, but swings in hiring are very real in this business as we all know. We see the start of a hiring change on the lower end of the business first. The places that have the least desirable jobs, on-demand and regional. I saw in 1989, 1999, 2006, and see it starting again.

My company upper management does not seem to concerned about future hiring. In fact they are profiling that we not hire pilots who are looking at passenger airline career path. Don't hire the young guys who will be looking for other jobs, only hire local guys, only hire pilots with prior experience in the on-demand business, Nice profile if you can find them.

We have been living with a 25-30% no slow rate for both interviews and classes. All I can do is take the raw material they give me and pass'em or bust'em.

Well, no wannabe airline guys, huh? So much for your advertisements about guys going from your airline to the majors!

 

[flyboyike]

Those who are starting today are going to be very disappointed at the time it will take to "make it".

I've already been in seven years with no "making it" in sight.

 

[pilotyip]

Well, no wannabe airline guys, huh? So much for your advertisements about guys going from your airline to the majors!

That is my recruiting promotion, not exactly what management would like. however they are faced with the dilemma, if they wait for the perfect local guy, the classes will go unfilled, because that guy is hard to find. So we get the time builder who is looking for TJ PIC, Check airman letter and moves moves on. They do a good job, I pat them on the back when they leave and wish them the best. I stay in touch wit h many of them and most have no hard feelings about their time at USA Jet. Besides by replacing a 5 year guy wit ha 1st year we are saving the company money.

 

[OCP]

WRONG! You should really do some research into the figures your spewing as facts.

straight from the FAA website they issued 8,559 commercial certificates and 4,677 ATP's this is in 2011 alone! data for 2012 is not yet available.

It does not show how many of those commercials were to foreign students too. I fly with a bunch of new FOs who have been instructors and most of them have been training all foreign students

 

[BuzzSaw]

Pilot Shortage, Blah, Blah, Blah, Pilot Shortage, Blah Blah Blah.

Show me the money! I've been hearing the junk since 1999.

Buzz Saw

 

[Gr82Aviate]

maybe those are the duds that shouldn't be flying for a living and couldn't pass the 1/2 dozen eval/interviews they've had prior to being hired... who knows?

There is such a thing as a pilot who has no business flying tho, we all know them... sad thing is this profession has a hard time getting rid of weak performers for some reason.... don't see this happening with Doctors, and certainly not surgeons.

Sadly, this is not really the case... I used to fly around a couple of surgeons that actually made a really good living correcting the botched surgeries previously done by other surgeons. In fact they were extremely busy, and had more cases than they could handle.

 

[pilotyip]

Yip adds interesting opinons and perspective to these conversations. Don't bash him just because you don't like what he is saying.

Looking back, my experience in hiring these guys who fly the single pilot piston twins, like the Airnet pilots, is that almost without exception they are very good instrument pilots. They fly raw data in the clouds at night, non-precision instrument approaches into uncontrolled airports. Some of the weaker inst. pilots I have seen come out of the modern turbine airplanes with all the automation, coupled capability, and FMS technology.

 

[Trcb777]

Sadly, this is not really the case... I used to fly around a couple of surgeons that actually made a really good living correcting the botched surgeries previously done by other surgeons. In fact they were extremely busy, and had more cases than they could handle.

So true. Ask anyone who works in a hospital and they know the good surgeons and the bad surgeons. Hell, when in college I was working at a country club and one of the surgeons was nicknamed "the butcher".

There have been pilots who landed at wrong airports and surgeons who cut off the wrong leg, removed the wrong kidney, and a big one is leaving tools in the patients. Any profession will have the good, the bad, and the ugly.

 

[jmreii]

Looking back, my experience in hiring these guys who fly the single pilot piston twins, like the Airnet pilots, is that almost without exception they are very good instrument pilots. They fly raw data in the clouds at night, non-precision instrument approaches into uncontrolled airports. Some of the weaker inst. pilots I have seen come out of the modern turbine airplanes with all the automation, coupled capability, and FMS technology.

A pilot is taught throughout his or her career to operate the aircraft according to the equipment available on the aircraft. If the aircraft has a VOR and two ADF's you operate it accordingly whereas the aircraft with the glass and FMS you operate it accordingly. It's either management's way or the highway, so beat it!

 

[jmreii]

Ever think of what is going to happen if you are on the tail end of the hiring?
People in training now are not going to be able to go from zero hours to 1500 to regional airline captain to majors on less than 10 years. We are already seeing 5 year plus upgrades at the regionals. Figure 2 years min to go from zero to 1500. 5 years to upgrade. 2-3 years as captain to get hired at a major. 10 years give or take.
Those who are starting today are going to be very disappointed at the time it will take to "make it".

Not to mention the only way management can keep their bonuses up is to keep salaries/benefits down for the masses.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Looking back, my experience in hiring these guys who fly the single pilot piston twins, like the Airnet pilots, is that almost without exception they are very good instrument pilots. They fly raw data in the clouds at night, non-precision instrument approaches into uncontrolled airports. Some of the weaker inst. pilots I have seen come out of the modern turbine airplanes with all the automation, coupled capability, and FMS technology.

Agreed to some extent, but it all depends on what you mean by "instrument pilots." It sounds like your definition is "ability to fly raw data with round dials and old technology."

Of course the guys who fly that way on a regular basis are better at flying round dials. It would take me a minute to warm up to a DC9. It would take a DC9 pilot a minute to warm up to an FMS and glass airplane too. However, I don't think that it means that I'm not as good at instrument flying. I'm very good at flying instruments in the aircraft for which they pay me to fly (EMB 190). If I start getting paid to fly a DC9, I'll learn that plane, and be just as good in that equipment.

 

[gearjockey]

Agreed to some extent, but it all depends on what you mean by "instrument pilots." It sounds like your definition is "ability to fly raw data with round dials and old technology."

Of course the guys who fly that way on a regular basis are better at flying round dials. It would take me a minute to warm up to a DC9. It would take a DC9 pilot a minute to warm up to an FMS and glass airplane too. However, I don't think that it means that I'm not as good at instrument flying. I'm very good at flying instruments in the aircraft for which they pay me to fly (EMB 190). If I start getting paid to fly a DC9, I'll learn that plane, and be just as good in that equipment.

It may take you a "minute" to warm up to a dc9, but it would take at least 100 hrs to get "hot".

 

[Jetjockey]

Pilot Shortage, Blah, Blah, Blah, Pilot Shortage, Blah Blah Blah.

Show me the money! I've been hearing the junk since 1999.

Buzz Saw

Some of us have been hearing that junk way longer. Like the 80's. Pilot job shortage..........yeah right.

 

[Theoden]

I understand that you are passing this on, but I do have to question the logic here. Are all low time pilots excellent, but then become poor performers the more experience they get? If so, will hiring <800 hour pilots mean they will become poor performers between 900-1500 hours at the regional? Or do they only lose brain capacity while teaching others how to fly? How does this work?

LOVE this post! I've seen great pilots who came from all over the spectrum of experience. Generally it seems to depend on attitude and effort.