Rumor: Alaska eyeing US Airways

[johnsonrod]

I'm guessing you don't work for Alaska because if you did you would know that...

1. Buying US Air East would require Bill or Brad to stick their neck out and do something radical which does not happen around here.

2. In light of these risky financial times, they are decreasing there debt and therefore it is doubtful that they would do anything that would require the debt load to go higher which a transaction to purchase US-Air East almost certainly would. They are not even borrowing money for this years aircraft deliveries.

3. Any steps Alaska does take are very small, calculated and easily reversed. i.e. no new fleet types to serve new markets (Allegiant to Hawaii) Notice the Hawaii flying started out with a couple of airplanes in a couple of hub cities. If Hawaii didn't work out it would have been very easy to rip out the rafts and redeploy the aircraft elsewhere in the existing route network. New routes are almost always previous code shares (almost all of Hawaii, SEA-ATL, SEA-IAH)or routes where someone has left the market (PDX-HNL, SJC-AUS). Buying US-Air would definitely not fit into this pattern.

4. I don't think our management is really worried about being bought. In the past year, our market cap has gone from around 600 Million to 1.5 Billion today. If nobody snatched us up at 600 Million, it is doubtful they could pay 1.5 Billion +. In reality name one airline that could afford a hostile take over of another major airline right now as the way you do a hostile takeover is to somehow offer a large premium of what the shareholders could get on the open market...1.5 - 2 times, which for Alaska would imply a price of 2 - 3 BILLION dollars. If these industry consolidation predictions come true, I doubt any of the mergers in the airline industry would be hostile.

When UAL and CAL merge, they will be the biggest airline out there. Delta will see that and will do a stock swap with you guys and you will join The BORG. Face it, you guys are next. You already park at Delta concourses in ATL and MSP, and you are taking over each other's routes (PDX to HNL), along with feeding their Asia routes from SEA soon. It is just a matter of time.

 

[igneousy2]

When UAL and CAL merge, they will be the biggest airline out there. Delta will see that and will do a stock swap with you guys and you will join The BORG. Face it, you guys are next. You already park at Delta concourses in ATL and MSP, and you are taking over each other's routes (PDX to HNL), along with feeding their Asia routes from SEA soon. It is just a matter of time.

Delta is plausible, although I still think unlikely as Delta gets the benefit of doing the flights without the risk.

 

[QCappy]

When UAL and CAL merge, they will be the biggest airline out there. Delta will see that and will do a stock swap with you guys and you will join The BORG. Face it, you guys are next. You already park at Delta concourses in ATL and MSP, and you are taking over each other's routes (PDX to HNL), along with feeding their Asia routes from SEA soon. It is just a matter of time.

Do you have any of your own thoughts? I've been reading this same sentiment for years in the media. It was crap then. It's crap now.:uzi:

 

[pookie]

I thought we were boycotting phx.

 

[CesnaCaptn]

Do you have any of your own thoughts? I've been reading this same sentiment for years in the media. It was crap then. It's crap now.:uzi:

I think he's onto something. What confuses me is we took over SEA-AUS, SEA-MIA, PDX-ORD, and SJC-AUS after AA dropped those routes and started OAK-OGG after AQ dropped that route. We park at the AA terminal in MCO and ORD, we park next to Frontier in DEN, and we park in the WN terminal in SFO. So what does all that mean? Today a controller even called our flight American. Did he know something we don't know about the merger?

 

[igneousy2]

I think he's onto something. What confuses me is we took over SEA-AUS, SEA-MIA, PDX-ORD, and SJC-AUS after AA dropped those routes and started OAK-OGG after AQ dropped that route. We park at the AA terminal in MCO and ORD, we park next to Frontier in DEN, and we park in the WN terminal in SFO. So what does all that mean? Today a controller even called our flight American. Did he know something we don't know about the merger?

Don't forget that we park next to Virgin America in LAX and in the old Delta terminal at DFW! ALL THIS CAN ONLY MEAN ONE THING!!!!!