Boyd group prediction
This is from the Boyd group prediction for 2004
See
www.aviationplanning.com
Prediction: Increasing Consumer Resistance to Small Jets.
We noted this last year, and we noted it years before.
It's happening - consumers are getting weary of long-haul flying cramped within the tight tube of an RJ - including the 70 and 90 seat stretched versions of the CRJ. Even the Wall Street Journal has noted the trend.
But, one can accurately observe, mega-carriers are still replacing long haul flying with RJs. Like United, in its effort to make A-320s available for its silly Ted experiment, is actually putting an RJ on its evening DEN-ATL flight - which is a major business market. And that, friends, could lead to some very upset consumers - indeed, a consumer revolt.
To be sure, there are applications where only an RJ can provide jet service adequately. But where there is an alternative, particularly in major markets that are as much as 3 hours or more, boarding to deplaning, riding an RJ can be a physical experience not seen since the Inquisition.
Let's recount the fun a Premier Executive United passenger will have when he arrives at DEN from SEA for his connection on the 6:30 departure to ATL. Yes, he gets the full-Monty RJ experience. He finds he has to wait in a gate area handling four other flights at the same time. He eventually has to schlep his carry-on down a dirty stairwell, cross a noisy and maybe snow-covered ramp. He has to leave his "carry-on" at the foot of the stairs, perhaps in a puddle. Then he has to sit in a cramped seat, constantly vying for advantage on the middle arm-rest, which has an edge that juts into one's arm for that perfect level of discomfort. Use of a laptop is impossible, and reading a newspaper means folding it like an Origami napkin. For three hours, give or take, this fun continues.
We're not talking about a flight in a sparse market to a small community, where one might understand that this is the best and most efficient service the market can support. We're talking about Denver to Atlanta on the United Airlines system. When one considers that the DEN-ATL alternative is a 757 on Delta with a movie, or an A-319 on Frontier with TV, or an AirTran 717 with an easy upgrade, this prime-time RJ flight could lead one to believe that United is trying to drive passengers away. This is but one example, and it's not limited to United. The point is that consumers are starting to turn on RJs just as they did on turboprops a decade ago.
Write this down: for markets where mainline aircraft are uneconomic, RJs are great aircraft. Every aircraft has a proper niche, both from the perspective of operational costs and consumer comfort. In the latter regard, RJs are not well-suited to long-haul flying. Certainly, there are some thin markets where an RJ can and will be the only game in town. But in major, high density business markets that represent more than two hours, an RJ can be lethal to brand-loyalty.
The revolution hasn't started yet. But it will.