RIP to the 'Southwest effect'?

[waveflyer]

I thought the long standing critique of SWA by pilots was the undercutting of fares in markets.
Now that SWA's been carrying the water on pilot contracts for a decade and have had to raise prices, that's a bad thing ?
Consolidation has led to a healthier more profitable industry. We seem to be breaking load factor records every quarter
That's a good thing for us

These ticket prices don't exist in a void.
I know economics isn't a pilot strong point, but we ought to try and see the big picture

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

I thought the long standing critique of SWA by pilots was the undercutting of fares in markets.
Now that SWA's been carrying the water on pilot contracts for a decade and have had to raise prices, that's a bad thing ?
Consolidation has led to a healthier more profitable industry. We seem to be breaking load factor records every quarter
That's a good thing for us

These ticket prices don't exist in a void.
I know economics isn't a pilot strong point, but we ought to try and see the big picture

Wavey,

Congrats btw for being pulled off my ignore list.... =)

Question, if a 9/11 type of crisis hit today, would SWA be nimble enough to cancel deliveries, not furlough anybody, not be devastated in current section 6 and stay profitable?

Serious question...not for sniping. You are a mature airline now who skipped our pain by very smart hedging.....could you stay on top?

 

[HowardBorden]

Wavey,

Congrats btw for being pulled off my ignore list.... =)

Question, if a 9/11 type of crisis hit today, would SWA be nimble enough to cancel deliveries, not furlough anybody, not be devastated in current section 6 and stay profitable?

Serious question...not for sniping. You are a mature airline now who skipped our pain by very smart hedging.....could you stay on top?

No one could know the answer to those questions. Also, these things don't happen in a vacuum, they would effect all airlines not just SWA.

SWA does have a big ace up its sleeve though. SWA could choose to charge for bags and charge various other ancillary fees that all the other airlines are already collecting. My guess is they could remain profitable. No furlough is anyone's guess. We did eek out small contractual gains post 9/11 but considering our current negotiating climate I would speculate the chances of a substancial contractual gain would be slim to nill.

 

[waveflyer]

Bill, it's a fair question, and the devil's in the details. Do we lose a hull or two in this crisis? Did we make mistakes within that crisis that could've helped prevent it? Do we have a govt that wants to make an example out of like Bush did with united? I've always thought that was more than just a little critique worthy.
I don't think anyone at SWA is walking around thinking we're invincible. If you do, please slap them for me, then tell me who they are so I can slap them. We will need to compete

There's no getting around that

That said, we had a major economic meltdown in 2008, and we didn't furlough. So for all the critiques of GK and MvdV, they are good men who will fight like hell not to be the first execs to furlough. Those who claim otherwise haven't spoken with them much. They are simply faced with a much different environment and reaching our limit with our current structure. So we'll see.

I'm very well aware that delta was known for half a century as 'never having furloughed'
Until they did.
So, I recommend humility, and to not rest on our laurels with a good contract and get into that insidious mindset where 'we've made it'

Want no part of that

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Ok...

Fair enough Howard and Wave.

We would all be hurt but you are right about charging for bags, it's a way out.

I honestly believe another trip through BK wouldn't be in our future if that went down. We have flexibility now.

 

[redflyer65]

Ok...

Fair enough Howard and Wave.

We would all be hurt but you are right about charging for bags, it's a way out.

I honestly believe another trip through BK wouldn't be in our future if that went down. We have flexibility now.

Your in a much better place now than in 2000.

I don't think SW would file for BK or even furlough either. 3.5 Billion in the bank and owning around 75% of the fleet outright give flexibility too.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Quite true Red...

Here's my beef with SWA....

There was a definite drive to put a stake in the heart of my airline. I know it's capitalism but it really left a bad taste in my mouth.

We are all pulling for industry profitability and I am glad SWA is in the same boat my airline is...making money without effing your neighbors.

 

[redflyer65]

Quite true Red...

Here's my beef with SWA....

There was a definite drive to put a stake in the heart of my airline..

I don't want to assume Bill, are talking about ATL, or just in general?

SW is always a competitor, not doubt. But there's no way that we could effect DL that much. We will both continue along our separate paths. Sometimes that path may cross, but many times it doesn't.

 

[waveflyer]

Think he's referring to D Parker.
Right bill?

 

[canyonblue]

Quite true Red...

Here's my beef with SWA....

There was a definite drive to put a stake in the heart of my airline. I know it's capitalism but it really left a bad taste in my mouth.

We are all pulling for industry profitability and I am glad SWA is in the same boat my airline is...making money without effing your neighbors.

Remember Song, United Shuttle, MetroJet, Delta Express? Yeah, nobody's been trying to kill us the past 20 years. Maybe now you know how it feels, and why I could care less about the life of a few airlines. Too many people with blood on their hands trying to wash it off.

 

[waveflyer]

Canyon

Remember delta express operated by Compass back in 2014?- flew E-170/175's up and down the west coast as the most serious threat to our shuttle route since the united shuttle-

 

[Flopgut]

Hey Canyon and Wave: Remember Eastern Airlines Shuttle? Yeah, they were trying to put you out of business with their shuttle back in 1961:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Air_Lines_Shuttle

Oh wait, you didn't exist then... These things you think are proprietary to SWA have been done before. The main thing you really do "own" is bringing no pension to our profession.

 

[Dash Power]

Hey Canyon and Wave: Remember Eastern Airlines Shuttle? Yeah, they were trying to put you out of business with their shuttle back in 1961:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Air_Lines_Shuttle

Oh wait, you didn't exist then... These things you think are proprietary to SWA have been done before. The main thing you really do "own" is bringing no pension to our profession.

You missed completely on this point.

This model was not designed to compete against a successful competitor.

All the other "shuttle" type spinoffs by the majors in the nineties was in direct response to Southwest's success with their business model.

Don't forget Continental Lite either.

 

[canyonblue]

You missed completely on this point.

This model was not designed to compete against a successful competitor.

All the other "shuttle" type spinoffs by the majors in the nineties was in direct response to Southwest's success with their business model.

Don't forget Continental Lite either.

Thanks, almost forgot that one. Apparently Flopgut has too.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Remember Song, United Shuttle, MetroJet, Delta Express? Yeah, nobody's been trying to kill us the past 20 years. Maybe now you know how it feels, and why I could care less about the life of a few airlines. Too many people with blood on their hands trying to wash it off.

Comeon Canyon...

Like any of those really were a threat? Stoooopid management tricks was all that was. They blame us unions for not being able to match your wages or workrules.....sorry, I wasn't willing to play along.