2000flyer said:
Then who are you saying bought them through 2008 or so that have deposits on them? At 2.5 a/c per month (DFJ says 2.5-3 but we'll use 2.5 in this example), positions are sold out into 2009 (again, for the sake of argument lets say 1/1/09). Production aircraft will start at s/n 04. s/n 1 is flying, 2 and three due on the line in the next 2-3 month, so lets say #4 will be out of the factory September 1. That will be 7.5 aircraft produced this year, 30 in 06, 30 in 07 and 30 in 08. Thats 97 aircraft currently holding deposits.
Tough Sale????
2000Flyer
You may want to do some reaserch. You say 97 but reality is almost half of that.
T
his is from March 7,2005's Business Week
"The French company logged 69 business-jet orders last year, up from 40 in 2003. Fifty 7X jets are now on order, enough to keep the Bordeaux factory humming through 2008."
The 7x is definatly NOT moving as you or Dassault predicted
Now do you really think that anyone is paying close to the $37 million list price, I think not. To give you a better idea:
"The 7X tri-jet will have a range of about 5,700 nmi, and will have a new wing with a high-transonic design. Rosanvallon said there are 35-40 deposits of
no less than $1 million each for the 7X. Production would be sold out through 2008
if all deposits were realized"
Say they have 50 deposits on order @ approx $1 mill per option, that equates to ONLY $50+ million realized for the entire 7x project.
Any wonder why they are looking to cut a deal with NetJets?
Now once again for the record, I like Falcons but I would not want any part of the first 100, nor as an AD would I recommend one.
The first 3 are test aircraft. How many of the next 47 are actually going to real corporate custmers? How may are going to large government customers, like the Aussies(how many of the first 900's did they buy) or the Italians(I believe they have 4 or 5)? How many are just speculators who are taking a chance that if they plunk down $1 mill, they may be able to sell their spot down the road for a profit? How many are customers like August Bush, who would by a brick with wings on it if Dassault made it?
The real money payers, who aren't going to be getting the big discounts won't be found until 100 or so are flying and that's not happening until 2010+
