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Regional Airline Pilot Supply......The New Reality

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fam62c

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 20, 2003
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Acme Airlines thought they had it made. They had really low costs and that gave them a big advantage. Their low costs allowed them to successfully bid on contract flying for multiple major airlines and rapidly grow into a big company. One of the big reasons for their low costs was their employees. Airlines require a lot of employees to function and labor is generally the highest or second-highest cost at any airline. From a business standpoint, ACME was proud of their ability to generate a lot of productivity from their employees while paying them very low wages. Even in an industry where wages were low, ACME was even lower. The real employee-bargain was pilots. Pilots spent a lot of money and time getting qualified for their profession and in most industries they would be paid pretty well based on their education and qualifications. The airline industry, however, was somewhat unique. The industry paid very well at the top of the profession but pilots needed experience to get there. There always seemed to be a lot more pilots than really good pilot jos. This created an environment where new pilots were willing to work for very low wages and benefits to gain experience. The supply-demand equation had pretty much always been on the side of the airlines and ACME took full advantage of that fact. ACME seemed confident that there would always be a ready-available supply of fresh pilots (and other employees) willing to work cheaply and they based their business model on this assumption.

Then one day things started to change and ACME started to have a problem. ACME had big commitments to do a lot of flying for their major airline customers. They were growing quickly and they needed a lot of new pilots. In addition to the growth, pilots were leaving ACME for better jobs at other airlines. At first it didn't seem like a big deal. Pilots had always left ACME and they had just hired more new ones....no problem. Now though, it started to become harder to find the large number fo new pilots required. A year ago ACME had noticed that there were less new applicants who met their hiring minimums and they had to lower their experience requirements to fill their new-hire classes. In the last few months, even this wasn't enough. All of a sudden there just didn't seem to be enough pilot applicants around. People didn't show up for interviews, people quit before their classes even started for other jobs, and new pilots were even leaving during training or shortly after training to take other jobs. This wasn't good, classes weren't being filled and ACME was starting to have trouble covering all of their existing flying let alone staffing the new airplanes that kept coming.

What now? The obvious solution was to push the existing pilots harder to get more productivity. Schedules got worse; less days off, less time at home, minimum rest overnights, forced work on days off, duty day extensions, cancelled vacations, etc. This helped for awhile but then things came unglued. Attrition and sick leave usage, fatigue calls and mechanical write-ups picked way up. The airline's core of senior pilots who had been there for years because their seniority afforded them good quality of life began to bail out when the schedules went downhill. ACME became known as a sweatshop and new pilots avoided the company like the plague. ACME really had a problem now. They couldn't hire, train and maintain enough pilots to get the flying done and the cancellations started; a few at first then lots of them. ACME had now become unreliable and their major airline partners were upset. How could this be? The majors had loved them when their costs were rock bottom and they awarded them the flying. ACME was in danger of being in breech-of-contract with their customers and to make matters worse, they were now losing money. How could this have happened? Where did all the pilots go? Wasn't there ALWAYS supposed to be a huge supply of new pilots willing to work for nothing?

Where did ACME go wrong and what can they do about it? I'll allow you, Dear Readers, to write the next chapter of the ACME story on Flighinfo.
 
Good post. ACME represents a lot of regional airlines situations at the present moment. The problem won't be solved until:
(1) majors start paying for the flying they get from the regionals.
(2) regionals start paying a reasonable wage for an employee with advanced education (our license and ratings should at least earn us equiv. to a masters degree)
(3) QOL at the regionals improve (increased staffing, better schedules, 80 hour months with 14+ days off)

Right now the market is demanding these steps. Many of the major "pilot factory" schools (UND, ERAU) have been seeing enrollment drop off. This is because of the unattractive nature of the airline industry right now. As a result, these schools are forced to contract with Asian air carriers to train their pilots to keep their airplanes in the air. Once these Asian students are done with training, they don't stick around and flight instruct like typical students, and the schools are left with a shrinking enrollment, and an instructor shortage. This causes flight costs to increase, thereby making going to school to "become a pilot" even less attractive. It's a downward spiral the major pilot supply is going through currently. But the three steps above will have to be enacted to prevent the inevitable.
 
Good post. ACME represents a lot of regional airlines situations at the present moment. The problem won't be solved until:
(1) majors start paying for the flying they get from the regionals.
(2) regionals start paying a reasonable wage for an employee with advanced education (our license and ratings should at least earn us equiv. to a masters degree)
(3) QOL at the regionals improve (increased staffing, better schedules, 80 hour months with 14+ days off)

Right now the market is demanding these steps. Many of the major "pilot factory" schools (UND, ERAU) have been seeing enrollment drop off. This is because of the unattractive nature of the airline industry right now. As a result, these schools are forced to contract with Asian air carriers to train their pilots to keep their airplanes in the air. Once these Asian students are done with training, they don't stick around and flight instruct like typical students, and the schools are left with a shrinking enrollment, and an instructor shortage. This causes flight costs to increase, thereby making going to school to "become a pilot" even less attractive. It's a downward spiral the major pilot supply is going through currently. But the three steps above will have to be enacted to prevent the inevitable.


How about just get rid of the regionals?
 
Just to be clear. labor is the highest CONTROLLABLE cost at an airline. Wages will never compare to the amount spent on the leases for 200 or so $20million aircraft. But leases are fixed costs, and "uncontrollable". And since Maintenance is generally figured in as a fixed cost (new aircraft and warrantied parts... don't use those APU's, they are expensive!), and fuel and gate space are all figured in as fixed amounts relative to compensation for the regionals. There are a number of controllable costs, though not as many as a major carrier who can negotiate gate leases and fuel prices has. Of this small part of overall cost, labor is the largest part of the pie. It's size makes it stand out like an eyesore to bean counters, and gives the powers that be the false impression that there are savings to be had in this area.

There may have been fat to trim at the level of the majors (though arguably they took a lot of meat along with the fat), but at the regionals there is not a lot to give. I believe regional CEOs realize that you can only squeeze a 60,000 dollar a year employee so much before he just says screw it. Their best hope is to keep those pesky captains moving out the door before their pay gets much above the 70's.

If the majors start hiring in good numbers soon, expect the regionals to actually regain some health and momentum as more senior captains leave (though likely not the most senior), and can be replaced with real junior guys and gals. The 10-20,000 saved per year by losing senior captains can be quickly converted to $5,000 bonuses for new FO's, and staffing will catch up to "adequate" levels.
 
Just to be clear. labor is the highest CONTROLLABLE cost at an airline...

well said. actually, it seems as though labor is the ONLY variable cost for most airlines, especially after the 'fat trimming'. For any lazy/incompetent middle or upper management, it is easier and less stressful to operate on a controllable variable cost rather than restructure the fixed ones... I'm sure this is news to all of us sitting in the industry!
 
well said but here is another view:

ACME airlines was once a small player but because of its low employee costs was able to expand several hundred planes and 2 to 3 thousand pilots. Thoes pilots that once topped at 40 grand flying a shorts/JS/Saab ect. are now flying 70+ seat jets and enjoy the benifits of being in the top 300 on a 3000 pilot list. They now make close to or better than 100,000/year and are comfy. Now they don't leave.

Now Acme doesn't have the low costs anymore they once enjoyed as a small traditional commuter with pilot turnover. Add to the now that ACME is flying much more of the mainline flying in bigger aircraft there are less mainline positions for ACME guy who wants to leave.

Now ACME can't expand to keep costs low - ACME #2 comes in and underbids bids ACME routes because ACME#2 hasn't had the expansion. ACME stalls out and furloughs but there are now no mainline postions because ACME and ACME#2 have taken over half of mainline-ACME's flying. And now there are no good positions just FO slots at ACME#2 because the senior ACME#2 guys never left so junior furloughed ACME guys stall their career even if they are blessed to get one of the few ACME#2 positions at the bottom (lateral move to stay employed).

Then Age 65 and everything get shifted 5 years. Then ACME#2 gets senior and ACME#3 comes in and the cycle starts all over.


SEE PEOPLE - ONE LIST FOR ONE AIRLINE - FROM J3 to 747 NO MORE OUTSOURCING
 
I agree.....most large academies nowadays cater to international clients.

American students ,mostly the younger "instant gratification generation" probably aren't willing to live on low salaries and pay their dues.
 
The airlines would be in a lot better shape if they only hired half of the people they turn away in the interviews for stupid reasons. (No not me, I have a class date coming up). I have been to more than one interview and seen current freight dogs (single pilot) with 1500+ TT get turned away due to a stupid written test with irrelevant questions. Believe it or not, there are some people out there who aren't aware of the gouge sites. Those sites are the reason the majority of the applicants get hired anyway, regardless of experience, including me.
 
I agree....135 freightdoggin does hold a high level of esteem, much more so than some University 250 hour wonder.
 
Just to be clear. labor is the highest CONTROLLABLE cost at an airline. Wages will never compare to the amount spent on the leases for 200 or so $20million aircraft. But leases are fixed costs, and "uncontrollable".

I'll agree with you that labor is the highest "controllable" cost an airline has (fuel runs neck and neck with labor as an airline's highest cost nowadays), but aircraft lease costs are just a drop in the bucket compared to labor costs. For example, if you look at the latest SEC filings for UAL and AMR, you'll see that costs associated with aircraft leases are merely 10% of what they spend on labor costs. Large regionals like Skywest or Mesa usually account for that cost under a "flight operations" line or similar so it's not as clear as it is on UAL's or AMR's balance sheet, but it's still just a fraction of what airline pay for labor. American Eagle breaks it out as a separate line, and it's only about 10% -15% (roughly) of what it pays for labor, as well. That' why labor has such a big bullseye on its back when the cost cutting starts...........
 
Pay their dues? Heck, most don't even want to put in the work necessary just to get the ratings.

True dat. And after they get through indoc and the checkride (which they accomplished through "THE gouge", instead of just learning the material), many make no effort to better themselves as professionals.
 

(2) regionals start paying a reasonable wage for an employee with advanced education (our license and ratings should at least earn us equiv. to a masters degree)
masters degree.....man, the kool aid is thick at aviation "universities". but nonetheless wages do need to come up.
 
An aside about freightdoggin. It's tough, it's great, it builds character and all the rest. But as a prep for airline work, I'm not sure it's the place to be. Don't get me wrong, I don't regret a minute of the nearly two years I flew cancelled checks around (if there were a future in it, I'd never have left). But now I'm a 3000 hour pilot who's struggling in the sim while 800 hour flight instructors are breezing by because I can't get used to the automation. Just remember, freight pups, airlines are going to train you to fly an autopilot, not an airplane. And check airmen don't care about that one time you...well enough said.
 
I agree....135 freightdoggin does hold a high level of esteem, much more so than some University 250 hour wonder.
I have nothing againts the guys with low time that get on with regionals. If I was in thier spot and got offered that job, I'd take it, so you can't blame them. I blame the regionals for hiring them. I never really wanted to fly for a regional just based on opinions I've heard from other people,, but I've always thought about it. I decided to apply to one supposively "decent" one, and see what happens. Mind you, I'm at 2000tt, 500multi, ATP.. I fly single pilot passenger flights, IFR in a Caravan, and flew 135 cargo in a twin, so Im not going in there blind or lacking experience. I get the interview, nail the sim, fine in the technical, hr was great.
I got the letter a week later saying thanks but no thanks. I normally wouldnt care, but when one of my friends who works there asked HR what happend with me, it was according to them, my "lack of crew time". So I'd make a worse first officer than someone with 250 hours? I don't get it,, and that ended my regional goals.
Im not coming on here to bitch, but I just dont get it.
 
masters degree.....man, the kool aid is thick at aviation "universities". but nonetheless wages do need to come up.

I, for one, have put in much more time in training, gaining experience, and mastering my craft than my wife who has her masters degree... and paid a hell-of-a-lot more, also. No kool aid about it, in fact, aviation universities are pretty frank with their students about how crappy the pay is in this industry. At least we agree on two things: (1) whether a pilot is a university product or not means little and (2) wages need to match the education, experience, and qualifications.
 

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