Question for GuppyWn re: Delta

[General Lee]

Assumption: I can't imagine that the combined seniority list of both NWA/DAL will agree to anything less than SWA pay for its 737 next contract. Also assuming that pay will be rationalized above 737 rates for larger a/c in DAL's fleet.

Given: Imagine two pilots hired on the same day at SWA and DAL. Also, imagine growth at the same rate. (SWA is done with the explosive growth of 10 years ago)

Question: Compare the QOL of both the DAL and the SWA guy for any given year. 1 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr. My guess would be as the career matures for both pilots, the multiple opportunities to maximize QOL with a diverse fleet will outweigh the QOL of a pilot at a single a/c type carrier. IOW, staying senior in junior equipment is only available to individuals that pursue a job at carrier with multiple a/c types.

Just another overlooked variable that one needs to calculate when making big career decisions.

You are correct. We both were robbed by a BK judge, and it is time to get back as much as we can. At the same time, we have to watch scope issues and QOL issues too, both also picked apart by BK negotiations.

Comparing SWA to DL is easy. SWA currently has great pay and a variety of bases to choose from, but schedule wise is pretty much the same depending on your seniority in that base. Most of their trips are high time, very productive trips, which is a good thing. But, that also means lots of legs, and not a lot of rest during those trips (hence very productive), and the older you get, the less anyone wants to do 5 or 6 legs in one day. The older I get, the fewer legs I want, and the more tropical or exotic layovers I want. ELP or JAN layovers just don't excite me. Some people say they don't care where they fly, which really means they also don't care what they eat, what they watch on TV, or what their wife does with the neighbor when they are doing the 23 min turn at CLE on the way to STL.... As of right now, SWA doesn't have any concrete plans to fly anywhere outside the US, (only rumors) and their business model is based off of "derivative" aircraft, meaning they get savings off of one type of plane, less training, spare parts, etc. I just don't see them getting off that model unless they do merge with someone. (Airtran with 717s)

It's all about variety for some. Healthy legacies have variety in planes, routes, trips, and bases. Southwest has financial stability, along with great pay (for now), but lacks in variety, which may eat away at anyone as they come up on 10 or 20 years of employment. If I told you you could only drive a Dodge Caravan the rest of your life, would you like that? How about driving it only around Texas? (kinda like only around the 48 contiguous States) That is exactly how some LCC pilots feel---limited. The pay will come back eventually at the healthier legacies, but variety will likely never be attained at LCCs. But hey, the stews are "funner" there....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[chase]

For those interested in the "avg" day for SWA vs. relying upon those who are working off of old info and are biased, here are the facts based upon avg lines for 1Q10:

Pilots per AC: 10.96

Avg # of work days per month: 12.43
Avg Duty Day length: 8:29
Block hrs per day: 5:47
Block hrs per hardline 72:36

Trips per hard line 87.5 TFP (trips for pay)
Trips per work day 7.04 TFP
Trips per duty hour .85

Avg pairing length 2.80 (not a typo...less than 3 legs a day)
Avg turn time 35:18
A/C changes per day .35 (avg 1 scheduled change for each 3 day roughly)


Since 1Q10 all of these numbers have changed to the better in terms of productivity as we have increased flying.

SWA would like to hire and the hope is in '11 that will occur but when we hire someone, unlike others, we want to make sure we never have to say, "sorry, we hired too many and you're furloughed"...that sucks for everyone. Much of the pain that has been felt by those within the industry is a direct result of poor management of their people resulting in uncertainity, furloughs and financial distress. The hope is SWA will continue with the approach our employees are our most important asset.

These are the most recent facts for those interested in that vs. misleading information by those who know not what they speak of. Cheers.

 

[B727Driver]

healthy legacies?? where?

 

[Widow's Son]

Here's another consideration. Long haul international either mints money or hemorrages money.

The world is ripe for a nasty surprise and when that happens a large chunk of international flying stops overnight, and expensive widebodies fly around empty until they are eventually parked. A few months after 9/11 I rode a Delta 767 from ATL to Sau Paulo and there were more crew on the aircraft than passengers.

So when some nut-job from Iran, NKorea, Libya, or timbuktu, or even some rogue lunatic, lobs a glowing green goober at someone else (like Israel, SKorea, London, NYC), the carriers heavily dependent upon international traffic are going to come to a screeching halt and those who have already been through BK don't really have any more contingency fuel (pensions to dump, assets to hock), to expend to stay afloat.

SWA wouldn't be immune to the carnage, but like Twinkies and cockroaches, it will survive.

 

[General Lee]

For those interested in the "avg" day for SWA vs. relying upon those who are working off of old info and are biased, here are the facts based upon avg lines for 1Q10:

Pilots per AC: 10.96

Avg # of work days per month: 12.43
Avg Duty Day length: 8:29
Block hrs per day: 5:47
Block hrs per hardline 72:36

Trips per hard line 87.5 TFP (trips for pay)
Trips per work day 7.04 TFP
Trips per duty hour .85

Avg pairing length 2.80 (not a typo...less than 3 legs a day)
Avg turn time 35:18
A/C changes per day .35 (avg 1 scheduled change for each 3 day roughly)


Since 1Q10 all of these numbers have changed to the better in terms of productivity as we have increased flying.

SWA would like to hire and the hope is in '11 that will occur but when we hire someone, unlike others, we want to make sure we never have to say, "sorry, we hired too many and you're furloughed"...that sucks for everyone. Much of the pain that has been felt by those within the industry is a direct result of poor management of their people resulting in uncertainity, furloughs and financial distress. The hope is SWA will continue with the approach our employees are our most important asset.

These are the most recent facts for those interested in that vs. misleading information by those who know not what they speak of. Cheers.

Pure BS. Average legs per day? Three? Gimme a break. How can you get a 25 hour 3 day or a 29 hour 4 day? All I gotta say is RIIIIIIIIGHT. The SWA FO I talked to said "they work us like dawgs....." So, let me get this straight, when leaving BWI in the morning Westbound, you go to CLE, then STL, and get off in MCI, right? If you did that, the trip would be worth 14 hours for 3 days. I have a feeling it continues on from MCI to LAS, then ONT, and then SMF. Sorry Chase, you can't have super productive trips unless you FLY A LOT in a short amount of time. You brag about the productivity, but then fib about the work. Oh wait, maybe you are saying BWI to LAS nonstop (5 hours in a 737), and THEN go onto SMF and SEA. Still a long day regardless, and a forgettable one. No thanks, your body at age 43 will start to reject it.

Also, please remember that those "stats" that Chase has provided supposedly show the "averages"--which means average between high and low. Well, thanks to all of the SWA senior Captains that want to fly to 65 and BEYOND, a newhire will spend a lot more time on the bottom end of that scale, meaning YEARS with the worst SWA trips---meaning your azz will be super tired doing 5-6 leg days for a long time. Can you enlighten us on that fact there, Chase? People there are entrenched for awhile in their seats, and newhires will probably be there for awhile, right? What are your upcoming retirement numbers? Please give the stats on that too.



Bye Bye----General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Here's another consideration. Long haul international either mints money or hemorrages money.

The world is ripe for a nasty surprise and when that happens a large chunk of international flying stops overnight, and expensive widebodies fly around empty until they are eventually parked. A few months after 9/11 I rode a Delta 767 from ATL to Sau Paulo and there were more crew on the aircraft than passengers.

So when some nut-job from Iran, NKorea, Libya, or timbuktu, or even some rogue lunatic, lobs a glowing green goober at someone else (like Israel, SKorea, London, NYC), the carriers heavily dependent upon international traffic are going to come to a screeching halt and those who have already been through BK don't really have any more contingency fuel (pensions to dump, assets to hock), to expend to stay afloat.

SWA wouldn't be immune to the carnage, but like Twinkies and cockroaches, it will survive.

That is why an airline needs to be diversified. You can't only be strong in one area, because that one area could be compromised. You need to have a strong domestic feed, and strong INTL feeds in different parts of the world. If you only have a big Asia presence, and something like SARS happens again, then you could have big problems. The World won't stop flying if one area implodes. It may pause for a bit, but people start moving again becuase they have to.

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[SDF2BUF2MCO]

GL, what's wrong with STL? Besides, DAL offers at least 7 flights a day out of ATL just on the mainline so DAL must like the biz.

 

[General Lee]

GL, what's wrong with STL? Besides, DAL offers at least 7 flights a day out of ATL just on the mainline so DAL must like the biz.

Nothing wrong with STL. I think DL mainline has that many flights to ATL, and may have even upgraded an RJ flight to SLC to a mini-bus A319. Small victory I guess.

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[chase]

Pure BS. Average legs per day? Three? Gimme a break. How can you get a 25 hour 3 day or a 29 hour 4 day? All I gotta say is RIIIIIIIIGHT. The SWA FO I talked to said "they work us like dawgs....." So, let me get this straight, when leaving BWI in the morning Westbound, you go to CLE, then STL, and get off in MCI, right? If you did that, the trip would be worth 14 hours for 3 days. I have a feeling it continues on from MCI to LAS, then ONT, and then SMF. Sorry Chase, you can't have super productive trips unless you FLY A LOT in a short amount of time. You brag about the productivity, but then fib about the work. Oh wait, maybe you are saying BWI to LAS nonstop (5 hours in a 737), and THEN go onto SMF and SEA. Still a long day regardless, and a forgettable one. No thanks, your body at age 43 will start to reject it.

Also, please remember that those "stats" that Chase has provided supposedly show the "averages"--which means average between high and low. Well, thanks to all of the SWA senior Captains that want to fly to 65 and BEYOND, a newhire will spend a lot more time on the bottom end of that scale, meaning YEARS with the worst SWA trips---meaning your azz will be super tired doing 5-6 leg days for a long time. Can you enlighten us on that fact there, Chase? People there are entrenched for awhile in their seats, and newhires will probably be there for awhile, right? What are your upcoming retirement numbers? Please give the stats on that too.



Bye Bye----General Lee

General,

Your source of info is one, two or three SWA FOs...correct? My info was directly from the SWAPA scheduling committee which provides this same data for each qtr to all of the pilots. It is generated from the cumulative line totals for 1Q10. I'll let the reader determine which source is the more useful in which to make characterizations about a "typical" pairing or line at SWA.


It is difficult to realize one's error when the facts are pointed out by those who have access to more complete data. I can understand you throwing out the "BS" flag as you have been working under some false illusions for sometime. I'm glad to have been the source for a more accurate portrayal of SWA. I'm sure this more accurate data will be included in any upcoming SWA related posts. No need to thank me, , you're welcome.

Webster defines average as:
1 a : a single value (as a mean, mode, or median) that summarizes or represents the general significance of a set of unequal values

There are certainly lines that have 5,6 and rarely a 7 leg day (haven't seen one in years but for the sake of the discussion lets say there is a few out of those pairings among the 5000+ lines a month).

Yes, the seniority system is alive at SWA which may or may not result in junior pilots flying more turns but many pilots don't even look at the individual pairings or number of legs as a criteria for making their bids which results in some senior pilots flying pairings with more than the 2.8 avg.

The 3 day and 4 day hourly total you referenced does exist even though I haven't seen an example of anything close to that in the past 18 months, that said, they are probably out there as are a bunch of minimum trips of 19.5 with 14-16 hrs applied. So again, the "avg" is a snapshot of the entire package, believe it or not.

Hiring has not occurred for 18 months or more but neither has furloughs. Long commutes and enduring reserves has become the new "non-normal" for the most junior on the FO and CA side and the hope is '11 will see that change if trends still continue as they appear to be. We have also seen pay raises and improvements in other work rules that most who come from other carriers consider far superior to what they have experienced in the past...flexible trading of trips for some and better rigging of trips has resulted in more dollars in the pocket. SWA pilots are not adverse to working....the choice is there and available to earn more money or take the days off...nice choices to have I believe.

As far as retirements....SWA new hire classes since nearly its inception I've been told incorporated a bell curve approach to the average ages of the new hire classes...most new hire classes avg around 37-39 yrs of age. This has spread out the number of retirements over a longer period of time and lessens the burden on the training department, avoids bubbles/ surges of retirements. Here is the snapshot of retirements for the next 10 years.

'10 - 2
'11 - 6
'12 - 14
'13 - 125
'14 - 107
'15 - 145
'16 - 166
'17 - 157
'18 - 109
'19 - 143
'20 - 160

1132 out of 5800+ pilots we have right now.

A case can be made that the rapid growth of years past will not be replicated again, in fact some say no growth will occur.

I'm of the opinion that rapid growth (when we hired over 500 pilots in the yr I was hired in '99) will not return but I'm certainly not of the opinion that zero growth will occur either.

I'm of the opinion that growth will return but at a more modest level with gains occurring in '11 due to many factors (I've postulated in other threads why...I won't bore you or others).

I see the lines returning to more productivity, the type of productivity we had in 3Q08 when SWA pilots were at their peak productivity and with the impending projected opening of a new crew base in the next 6-12 months, the pairing selection will improve also which adds to the QOL of our pilots. Everyone expects it to be DEN with over 140 flights from there by this fall.

I can understand your aghast at seeing the hard numbers and being shocked that your preconceived ideas on a tyical pairing at SWA are wrong. Looking at a single friend or several friends, regardless of their seniority, line for the month tells you a single snapshot of that line but nothing about the average pilot. I certainly don't judge every DAL pilot by the opinion I hold of you, that would be unfair to other DAL pilots

Stagnation has occurred for the junior most but I praise them for handling these challenges and continuing to support the efforts of SWAPA and SWA in providing the customer service that in the long run brings us more customers which generates revenue and will allow us to grow. Giving great customer service is the most direct way our pilots have at improving their chances of moving up the seniority ladder and they realize that fact.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

To all reading this thread.....Gup and I have had some conversatons about this in PMs....

Delta WAS Southwest back in the day....We HAD picnics, we HAD a family attitude, we HAD the top pay.....All spilt milk, but we HAD it....

It takes a crappy manager to come in and prove his worth by cutting the core principles of your airline and what it means to the bottom line....It CAN happen to you at SWA. (Waveflyer....I'm talking to you!)

To point fingers and say "I'd never go to a legacy with their outsourcing...." etc etc. is laughable at best. You never know where this business will take you but you can guarantee one thing, when you are the top of the pile you WILL be replaced, it's Darwin.......so enjoy your high pay, live on the 737, and love your schedules.....it may all go away and then your life plan changes......

Be ready, it will happen Wave....