General,
Your source of info is one, two or three SWA FOs...correct? My info was directly from the SWAPA scheduling committee which provides this same data for each qtr to all of the pilots. It is generated from the cumulative line totals for 1Q10. I'll let the reader determine which source is the more useful in which to make characterizations about a "typical" pairing or line at SWA.
It is difficult to realize one's error when the facts are pointed out by those who have access to more complete data. I can understand you throwing out the "BS" flag as you have been working under some false illusions for sometime. I'm glad to have been the source for a more accurate portrayal of SWA. I'm sure this more accurate data will be included in any upcoming SWA related posts. No need to thank me,, you're welcome.
Webster defines average as:
1 a : a single value (as a mean, mode, or median) that summarizes or represents the general significance of a set of unequal values
There are certainly lines that have 5,6 and rarely a 7 leg day (haven't seen one in years but for the sake of the discussion lets say there is a few out of those pairings among the 5000+ lines a month).
Yes, the seniority system is alive at SWA which may or may not result in junior pilots flying more turns but many pilots don't even look at the individual pairings or number of legs as a criteria for making their bids which results in some senior pilots flying pairings with more than the 2.8 avg.
The 3 day and 4 day hourly total you referenced does exist even though I haven't seen an example of anything close to that in the past 18 months, that said, they are probably out there as are a bunch of minimum trips of 19.5 with 14-16 hrs applied. So again, the "avg" is a snapshot of the entire package, believe it or not.
Hiring has not occurred for 18 months or more but neither has furloughs. Long commutes and enduring reserves has become the new "non-normal" for the most junior on the FO and CA side and the hope is '11 will see that change if trends still continue as they appear to be. We have also seen pay raises and improvements in other work rules that most who come from other carriers consider far superior to what they have experienced in the past...flexible trading of trips for some and better rigging of trips has resulted in more dollars in the pocket. SWA pilots are not adverse to working....the choice is there and available to earn more money or take the days off...nice choices to have I believe.
As far as retirements....SWA new hire classes since nearly its inception I've been told incorporated a bell curve approach to the average ages of the new hire classes...most new hire classes avg around 37-39 yrs of age. This has spread out the number of retirements over a longer period of time and lessens the burden on the training department, avoids bubbles/ surges of retirements. Here is the snapshot of retirements for the next 10 years.
'10 - 2
'11 - 6
'12 - 14
'13 - 125
'14 - 107
'15 - 145
'16 - 166
'17 - 157
'18 - 109
'19 - 143
'20 - 160
1132 out of 5800+ pilots we have right now.
A case can be made that the rapid growth of years past will not be replicated again, in fact some say no growth will occur.
I'm of the opinion that rapid growth (when we hired over 500 pilots in the yr I was hired in '99) will not return but I'm certainly not of the opinion that zero growth will occur either.
I'm of the opinion that growth will return but at a more modest level with gains occurring in '11 due to many factors (I've postulated in other threads why...I won't bore you or others).
I see the lines returning to more productivity, the type of productivity we had in 3Q08 when SWA pilots were at their peak productivity and with the impending projected opening of a new crew base in the next 6-12 months, the pairing selection will improve also which adds to the QOL of our pilots. Everyone expects it to be DEN with over 140 flights from there by this fall.
I can understand your aghast at seeing the hard numbers and being shocked that your preconceived ideas on a tyical pairing at SWA are wrong. Looking at a single friend or several friends, regardless of their seniority, line for the month tells you a single snapshot of that line but nothing about the average pilot. I certainly don't judge every DAL pilot by the opinion I hold of you, that would be unfair to other DAL pilots
Stagnation has occurred for the junior most but I praise them for handling these challenges and continuing to support the efforts of SWAPA and SWA in providing the customer service that in the long run brings us more customers which generates revenue and will allow us to grow. Giving great customer service is the most direct way our pilots have at improving their chances of moving up the seniority ladder and they realize that fact.
GL
U r right. SWA is doomed to become like DAL, don't know what I was thinking.
And that customer service thing....what was I thinking that I or any of our 35,000 employees have any control over providing good customer service. We are powerless to change our destiny.
Just curious, since everything is inevitable, when does DAL disappear like the many legacies have that have gone before? Afterall, it is inevitable, right?
BTW, no merger in SWA's future, GK told me personally!
Chase,
