Question for General Lee????

[cl65@350]

Hi General

I have read many of your posts and you obviously keep your finger on the pulse of Delta Air Lines...Please help me out here...

I am curious about your OPINION (based on a no growth, and/or the 100 seater rumor) on how long an upgrade might be for TK and the most senior furloughed pilot based on retirement data that you might be privy to.

If Dalpa agrees to concessions and they get the 100 seaters, do you think there will be another chance for the 2-3 year upgrades like the express pilots got? Also, do you think that Song will still tend to be senior if they drop hourly and increase productivity...do the old guys like that kind of flying or will they just bid the 800 which pays only a few $ less? Do you think Dalpa will want 70 seaters with Comairs contract for the furloughed guys?

Thanks a ton for your info

 

[tbkane]

I am not general lee, but I do speak for TK as that is me. I wish I had a crystal ball that would tell me when I will be back, and for that matter when i would upgrade. The truth is I don't have a clue. If we do not grow mainline at all, it would be another 3-4 years before we retire 1,310 which is the number of furloughees.

The 100 seater has been rumored for years, and the order has not been made which means the planes are probably not going to hit the property until 2004 time frame. Our union has stated that we are not going to try for 70 seat jets as our costs are not competitive. I for one would rather fly that than the desk I currently am piloting.

I know that this is not much of an answer, but unfortunately info does not flow from Delta to us very often.

 

[General Lee]

CL65,

Well, first let me state that it is an honor to respond after TBKANE, since he is famous at Delta and we all hope he returns soon. He will have free beers on layovers for the rest of his life.

Ok, to your questions. I will only give my opinions, and I a lot of this is what I hear when I talk to check airmen, chief pilots, etc.

#1. How long of an upgrade for furloughs based on retirement data. Well, I know that there are a lot of people considering early retirements due to the low Gatt rate and things going on now in Congress trying to affect how retirement is given out. I have heard and seen on our Dalpa fourm that there are many pilots watching the Gatt rate and ready to go because things just don't seem to be getting any better and a lot of the pilots already have their 3 best years (not 3 last years) for retirement. The more people retire, the sooner TBKANE and company will be back. I am guessing somewhere between 3-4 years.

#2. IF we get 100 seaters, the rates will be lower than the 737-200 mainline. (Which is higher than AA or UAL 777 Captain rates)
I am guessing the company will low ball big time. I think this could be another Delta Express situation, and I think the rates will be better than UA or AA mid sized jets (MD80 or A319), but less than the current 737-200 rates. I think that will send those current 737-200 Capt's running for the larger equipment--like INTL 767ER. There probably will be younger Capt's on those 100 seaters, since Delta guys (and girls) seem to think with their pocket books. So, yes, I think it will be another Delta Express or a B-scale. The industry just seems to be leaning toward that again.

#3. Will Song stay senior? Well, I don't think so. I believe Song will be separated eventually like Delta Express and have their own rules. The rates will be 20% lower than mainline, but they will be able to make it up by flying 5 or so extra hours a month. I think all of the 757's (all 120 of them) will eventually fly for Song, and they will have separate bases (like LAS maybe, and a FLA base too). Line Check guys say that this might not be the case because Delta enjoys have the flexibilty of having 3000 pilots who fly the 757/767 to fly either Song or Mainline. But, I can only believe that Song will be a separate entity---like Delta Express was. (I hope not separate senority lists---like the flight attendants---but they have no union....) I think most of the senior guys are gojng to run for the money, and that will be INTL. You are also right about the 737-800's being close in pay to the 757. If Delta moves the Song bases away from ATL, more senior guys might choose the 737-800 instead. It is a nice bird.

#4. Will Dalpa go for 70 seaters with the Comair contract? I hope so. I am not trying to make the Comair or ASA guys mad, I am just trying to figure out what to do with 1310 furloughs. But, I don't know if Dalpa wants to tackle this one. I don't think that Delta or Dalpa would ever take away any of Comair or ASA's current 70 seaters, and I have heard that Delta want's more of them. But, the 100 seater might be the next step Dalpa wants to take and leave the 70 seaters to Comair and ASA. We are currently in negotiations with the company, and it wouldn't surprise me if Dalpa allowed more of those to go to Comair and ASA, but I wish some of our furloughs could go and be FO's on them. I know pilots at all parties want to grow and prosper, but I talk to my furloughed friends and wish they could climb back into the cockpit. I think Dalpa will just go for the 100 seaters for our pilots, and leave the 70 seaters to the regionals. That could change if Dalpa gets a wild hair up their collective a$$ though. I think those 70 seaters look more like DC-9's.

Well, these are just my opinions and could be far off. I listen on the line and give my input when needed. Let's hope TBKANE, Networ-king, and NY RANGERS get back into cockpits really soon.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Falconjet]

TKBane

Can you tell us why TKBane is so famous around Delta? Just curious, and obviously not in the loop. Thanks.

 

[General Lee]

He unfortunately is the bottom furlough. Everyone refers to themselves as TK+_____ . Everyone will be happy when he finally returns.

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[cl65@350]

Thanks for the detailed reply!

I am sure TK will get free beers for the rest of his career...at least till he flies with guys in his right seat!

 

[TheRealStory]

General,

What is the # of the last Mainline pilot including furloughees?

What is the # of the last Mainline pilot not furloughed?

What is the # of the most junior Mainline Capt?(737-200)

What is the # of the most junior Mainline Capt?(737-800)

What is the # of the most junior Mainline Capt?(757)

Thanks for the help.

Things will turn in this business.

-two proverbs.

If I had a dollar for every rumor I heard I would not need this job.

Todays flower could be tommorrows weed and vies versa.

Everybody, and I mean everybody keep the sunnyside up.

 

[General Lee]

It might take me awhile to look that up. I will try.

 

[cl65@350]

ok...sorry general...another ???

i know that DAL is looking for a 100 seater...what do you hear from CP and line check guys/gals that have been doing some test flights etc...

B737-600....good range, not as much as the 700 though and virtually the same cost?

A318...good range...cost? new a/c type?

Crj900...bag range, cost? payload challenges?

Emb190...no prototype yet, but any idea on cost? 2 airframes for the price of a 737???

Thanks! It sounds like DAL will HAVE to get a 100 seater, they have been looking for years, but it takes a catalyst like jetBlue and AirTran to really push a research program into reality...we can hope anyway!

 

[General Lee]

CL65,

You are correct, it did take a push from Jetblue etc. to get them to take a closer look. I know they are going to narrow it down to two of those in the next couple of months. I think the 717 is in there, but I heard somewhere that they wanted Boeing to make sure the new version could make it nonstop from CVG-SEA. Why? Who knows? Fred Reid, our President, used to head Lufthansa, and he brought the newer Airbuses to them, so he knows the Airbus people well. Boeing 737-600's could work with fleet commonality, but Boeing screwed us over with the winglet issue for our 737-800's---offering some European customers a lower price for the winglet option, even though we are their best customer. The EMB plane was mentioned in the ATL chief pilot office, but Jetblue may have taken most of the initial slots. The CRJ-900 might not have exactly what Delta is looking for, but obviously DCI has lots of CRJ's and the sims etc. I know Delta wants a 100 seater to replace the older 737-200s, and they want two pilots and two mainline flight attendants to work it, an idea not liked by the older flight attendants. I think they will narrow it down soon, but they want concessions from us first, and might bait us with the prospect of new 100 seaters. That is all I know.

Bye Bye--General Lee