Question for General Lee????

[cl65@350]

Hi General

I have read many of your posts and you obviously keep your finger on the pulse of Delta Air Lines...Please help me out here...

I am curious about your OPINION (based on a no growth, and/or the 100 seater rumor) on how long an upgrade might be for TK and the most senior furloughed pilot based on retirement data that you might be privy to.

If Dalpa agrees to concessions and they get the 100 seaters, do you think there will be another chance for the 2-3 year upgrades like the express pilots got? Also, do you think that Song will still tend to be senior if they drop hourly and increase productivity...do the old guys like that kind of flying or will they just bid the 800 which pays only a few $ less? Do you think Dalpa will want 70 seaters with Comairs contract for the furloughed guys?

Thanks a ton for your info

 

[tbkane]

I am not general lee, but I do speak for TK as that is me. I wish I had a crystal ball that would tell me when I will be back, and for that matter when i would upgrade. The truth is I don't have a clue. If we do not grow mainline at all, it would be another 3-4 years before we retire 1,310 which is the number of furloughees.

The 100 seater has been rumored for years, and the order has not been made which means the planes are probably not going to hit the property until 2004 time frame. Our union has stated that we are not going to try for 70 seat jets as our costs are not competitive. I for one would rather fly that than the desk I currently am piloting.

I know that this is not much of an answer, but unfortunately info does not flow from Delta to us very often.

 

[General Lee]

CL65,

Well, first let me state that it is an honor to respond after TBKANE, since he is famous at Delta and we all hope he returns soon. He will have free beers on layovers for the rest of his life.

Ok, to your questions. I will only give my opinions, and I a lot of this is what I hear when I talk to check airmen, chief pilots, etc.

#1. How long of an upgrade for furloughs based on retirement data. Well, I know that there are a lot of people considering early retirements due to the low Gatt rate and things going on now in Congress trying to affect how retirement is given out. I have heard and seen on our Dalpa fourm that there are many pilots watching the Gatt rate and ready to go because things just don't seem to be getting any better and a lot of the pilots already have their 3 best years (not 3 last years) for retirement. The more people retire, the sooner TBKANE and company will be back. I am guessing somewhere between 3-4 years.

#2. IF we get 100 seaters, the rates will be lower than the 737-200 mainline. (Which is higher than AA or UAL 777 Captain rates)
I am guessing the company will low ball big time. I think this could be another Delta Express situation, and I think the rates will be better than UA or AA mid sized jets (MD80 or A319), but less than the current 737-200 rates. I think that will send those current 737-200 Capt's running for the larger equipment--like INTL 767ER. There probably will be younger Capt's on those 100 seaters, since Delta guys (and girls) seem to think with their pocket books. So, yes, I think it will be another Delta Express or a B-scale. The industry just seems to be leaning toward that again.

#3. Will Song stay senior? Well, I don't think so. I believe Song will be separated eventually like Delta Express and have their own rules. The rates will be 20% lower than mainline, but they will be able to make it up by flying 5 or so extra hours a month. I think all of the 757's (all 120 of them) will eventually fly for Song, and they will have separate bases (like LAS maybe, and a FLA base too). Line Check guys say that this might not be the case because Delta enjoys have the flexibilty of having 3000 pilots who fly the 757/767 to fly either Song or Mainline. But, I can only believe that Song will be a separate entity---like Delta Express was. (I hope not separate senority lists---like the flight attendants---but they have no union....) I think most of the senior guys are gojng to run for the money, and that will be INTL. You are also right about the 737-800's being close in pay to the 757. If Delta moves the Song bases away from ATL, more senior guys might choose the 737-800 instead. It is a nice bird.

#4. Will Dalpa go for 70 seaters with the Comair contract? I hope so. I am not trying to make the Comair or ASA guys mad, I am just trying to figure out what to do with 1310 furloughs. But, I don't know if Dalpa wants to tackle this one. I don't think that Delta or Dalpa would ever take away any of Comair or ASA's current 70 seaters, and I have heard that Delta want's more of them. But, the 100 seater might be the next step Dalpa wants to take and leave the 70 seaters to Comair and ASA. We are currently in negotiations with the company, and it wouldn't surprise me if Dalpa allowed more of those to go to Comair and ASA, but I wish some of our furloughs could go and be FO's on them. I know pilots at all parties want to grow and prosper, but I talk to my furloughed friends and wish they could climb back into the cockpit. I think Dalpa will just go for the 100 seaters for our pilots, and leave the 70 seaters to the regionals. That could change if Dalpa gets a wild hair up their collective a$$ though. I think those 70 seaters look more like DC-9's.

Well, these are just my opinions and could be far off. I listen on the line and give my input when needed. Let's hope TBKANE, Networ-king, and NY RANGERS get back into cockpits really soon.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Falconjet]

TKBane

Can you tell us why TKBane is so famous around Delta? Just curious, and obviously not in the loop. Thanks.

 

[General Lee]

He unfortunately is the bottom furlough. Everyone refers to themselves as TK+_____ . Everyone will be happy when he finally returns.

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[cl65@350]

Thanks for the detailed reply!

I am sure TK will get free beers for the rest of his career...at least till he flies with guys in his right seat!

 

[TheRealStory]

General,

What is the # of the last Mainline pilot including furloughees?

What is the # of the last Mainline pilot not furloughed?

What is the # of the most junior Mainline Capt?(737-200)

What is the # of the most junior Mainline Capt?(737-800)

What is the # of the most junior Mainline Capt?(757)

Thanks for the help.

Things will turn in this business.

-two proverbs.

If I had a dollar for every rumor I heard I would not need this job.

Todays flower could be tommorrows weed and vies versa.

Everybody, and I mean everybody keep the sunnyside up.

 

[General Lee]

It might take me awhile to look that up. I will try.

 

[cl65@350]

ok...sorry general...another ???

i know that DAL is looking for a 100 seater...what do you hear from CP and line check guys/gals that have been doing some test flights etc...

B737-600....good range, not as much as the 700 though and virtually the same cost?

A318...good range...cost? new a/c type?

Crj900...bag range, cost? payload challenges?

Emb190...no prototype yet, but any idea on cost? 2 airframes for the price of a 737???

Thanks! It sounds like DAL will HAVE to get a 100 seater, they have been looking for years, but it takes a catalyst like jetBlue and AirTran to really push a research program into reality...we can hope anyway!

 

[General Lee]

CL65,

You are correct, it did take a push from Jetblue etc. to get them to take a closer look. I know they are going to narrow it down to two of those in the next couple of months. I think the 717 is in there, but I heard somewhere that they wanted Boeing to make sure the new version could make it nonstop from CVG-SEA. Why? Who knows? Fred Reid, our President, used to head Lufthansa, and he brought the newer Airbuses to them, so he knows the Airbus people well. Boeing 737-600's could work with fleet commonality, but Boeing screwed us over with the winglet issue for our 737-800's---offering some European customers a lower price for the winglet option, even though we are their best customer. The EMB plane was mentioned in the ATL chief pilot office, but Jetblue may have taken most of the initial slots. The CRJ-900 might not have exactly what Delta is looking for, but obviously DCI has lots of CRJ's and the sims etc. I know Delta wants a 100 seater to replace the older 737-200s, and they want two pilots and two mainline flight attendants to work it, an idea not liked by the older flight attendants. I think they will narrow it down soon, but they want concessions from us first, and might bait us with the prospect of new 100 seaters. That is all I know.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[p.b.]

tbkane -

did you work at MGA?

 

[Tim47SIP]

General

Well, these are just my opinions and could be far off. I listen on the line and give my input when needed. Let's hope TBKANE, Networ-king, and NY RANGERS get back into cockpits really soon

Dont forget FDJ! He is one of your better mainline guys on this board and deserves some credit. He is in the same boat as you guys are and carries some of the same views. I certainly hope that DALPA figures out a way to fix their furlough problem and allow the company to right size any where they need to. I think it can work to DALPA, ASA and Comairs best interesets. I think it can all be done without DALPA having to worry about a merger or staple. I hope sooner than later!

P.S. How long do you think your section 6 negotiations will go on? For anything to be benificial for management, I would assume ASAP. If it goes on for several months, I would assume that Delta management would loose some of their abilities to initiate their restructuring plans or whatever they are trying to accomplish. What do you think. Tim.

 

[General Lee]

Tim,

I would not forget FDJ, he always contributes on this board. I think the section 6 negotiations will take as long as Dalpa wants them to. Slowly things are getting better, and management wants to get the concessions as soon as possible. Isn't it funny that management goes really slow during normal contract talks when WE WANT MORE, but wants to go fast when THEY WANT MORE. The loads are slowly improving, and the economy seems to be getting better. Our second quarter results are going to be out soon, and they should show improvement--especially since the Gov't gave us $422 million and Delta also sold their part of Worldspan. But, even the break even load fact has been exceeded, so we should have a better showing regardless of the Gov't money. Delta has slashed a lot of jobs (16,000 I believe) and ofcourse furloughed 1310 pilots--and we have become a leaner airline. Hopefully things will improve even more and we can get that recall going.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FlyingSig]

CL65,

Well, first let me state that it is an honor to respond after TBKANE, since he is famous at Delta and we all hope he returns soon. He will have free beers on layovers for the rest of his life.

Personally, I look forward to the day that nobody remembers who the heck TK is.

 

[Widgeon]

I agree with the General and TK. There are a few variables that leave those of us on the street hanging in the breeze. The 100 seater has been thrown about for the last 15-20 years, and if it happens now, I am sure that concessions will be involved-which plays right into mgmt's hand. Retirements would move things along, but most near that stage in their career seem to be waiting for the fallout of these talks. It will be interesting to see the true retirement numbers when we get something on paper.

Like TK, I would take any honest payrate to be flying one of "Delta's Big Jets", but I don't see that happening until late 2005 to Spring of 2006 at the earliest, even with concessions and a new aircraft.

Wish I could be more optomistic, but all we can do is wait and see...

Widgeon (TK+11)

 

[Vortilon]

Troy will really be the man when he can get his COPILOT to buy him a beer.

 

[cl65@350]

hi general...another ?? of course!

when the pilots are talking about retiring early, and taking a lump sum retirement...is that in lieu of 60% FAE per month pension...or is that like a B fund lump or what? what exactly are these guys leaving with???

i heard a rumor that Song could be sold along with the pilots if they do get a separate operating certificate...management says it is because of jetBlue that they need another certificate, but do you think that they are going to build it to 130 757s and then sell it and the pilots ........to Disney or somebody? if they sell Song and all the 757s it would be 20 years before the furloughs return!!!

thanks for your time

 

[General Lee]

CL65,

IF the pilots have more than 25 years of service, they can get full retirement---or 60% FAE, usually broken up with a lump sum. A friend of mine just retired with more than 30 years of service, and he recieved a $1.2 million lump su, plus $8,500 a month for the rest of his life. Guys who leave earlier than 25 years take a hit, but still get some sort of lump sum and monthly portion also. It depends on how many years you leave early.

I have read the reports about Song and the rumor about Disney and all of that. I can't confirm any of that, but I am sure that Dalpa will have something in the next contract supporting our guys. Disney has also lost their shirt on recent aircraft deals with United---I think they wrote off over $150 million on aircraft leases with UAL, and they may not want to get into this business. If Song does very well over time, I can't see Delta selling off a profitable unit, but they may want to pear it down so they can merge Delta with someone else (like CO). I do think Song will grow and they will want to atleast separate the groups like they did with Delta Express and Mainline---with separate pay catagories.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Heavy Set]

Wouldn't furloughed pilots, in that scenario, be alloted to Song as well?