CL65,
Well, first let me state that it is an honor to respond after TBKANE, since he is famous at Delta and we all hope he returns soon. He will have free beers on layovers for the rest of his life.
Ok, to your questions. I will only give my opinions, and I a lot of this is what I hear when I talk to check airmen, chief pilots, etc.
#1. How long of an upgrade for furloughs based on retirement data. Well, I know that there are a lot of people considering early retirements due to the low Gatt rate and things going on now in Congress trying to affect how retirement is given out. I have heard and seen on our Dalpa fourm that there are many pilots watching the Gatt rate and ready to go because things just don't seem to be getting any better and a lot of the pilots already have their 3 best years (not 3 last years) for retirement. The more people retire, the sooner TBKANE and company will be back. I am guessing somewhere between 3-4 years.
#2. IF we get 100 seaters, the rates will be lower than the 737-200 mainline. (Which is higher than AA or UAL 777 Captain rates)
I am guessing the company will low ball big time. I think this could be another Delta Express situation, and I think the rates will be better than UA or AA mid sized jets (MD80 or A319), but less than the current 737-200 rates. I think that will send those current 737-200 Capt's running for the larger equipment--like INTL 767ER. There probably will be younger Capt's on those 100 seaters, since Delta guys (and girls) seem to think with their pocket books. So, yes, I think it will be another Delta Express or a B-scale. The industry just seems to be leaning toward that again.
#3. Will Song stay senior? Well, I don't think so. I believe Song will be separated eventually like Delta Express and have their own rules. The rates will be 20% lower than mainline, but they will be able to make it up by flying 5 or so extra hours a month. I think all of the 757's (all 120 of them) will eventually fly for Song, and they will have separate bases (like LAS maybe, and a FLA base too). Line Check guys say that this might not be the case because Delta enjoys have the flexibilty of having 3000 pilots who fly the 757/767 to fly either Song or Mainline. But, I can only believe that Song will be a separate entity---like Delta Express was. (I hope not separate senority lists---like the flight attendants---but they have no union....) I think most of the senior guys are gojng to run for the money, and that will be INTL. You are also right about the 737-800's being close in pay to the 757. If Delta moves the Song bases away from ATL, more senior guys might choose the 737-800 instead. It is a nice bird.
#4. Will Dalpa go for 70 seaters with the Comair contract? I hope so. I am not trying to make the Comair or ASA guys mad, I am just trying to figure out what to do with 1310 furloughs. But, I don't know if Dalpa wants to tackle this one. I don't think that Delta or Dalpa would ever take away any of Comair or ASA's current 70 seaters, and I have heard that Delta want's more of them. But, the 100 seater might be the next step Dalpa wants to take and leave the 70 seaters to Comair and ASA. We are currently in negotiations with the company, and it wouldn't surprise me if Dalpa allowed more of those to go to Comair and ASA, but I wish some of our furloughs could go and be FO's on them. I know pilots at all parties want to grow and prosper, but I talk to my furloughed friends and wish they could climb back into the cockpit. I think Dalpa will just go for the 100 seaters for our pilots, and leave the 70 seaters to the regionals. That could change if Dalpa gets a wild hair up their collective a$$ though. I think those 70 seaters look more like DC-9's.
Well, these are just my opinions and could be far off. I listen on the line and give my input when needed. Let's hope TBKANE, Networ-king, and NY RANGERS get back into cockpits really soon.
Bye Bye--General Lee
