(qualified?) pilot shortage round 2? MPL

[Quack]

The 1500 hour rule is going to make it a tougher barrier of entry into the rank and file system, which is a good thing for all parties. If that makes a new pilot have to tow more banners, teach more students, or spend more money, so be it. Point is that, the more expensive it is and more difficult it is to get into this job, the more the compensation "should" go up. Whether or not that will happen is a question for the crystal ball. Paying $100,000 to send a kid through UND or Riddle to get a reduced hiring time is not worth it to come out of college and make $20-30,000 per year. I know my kids will never be allowed to do it until something changes. The bigger issue is going to be the MPL licensing when we do have a shortage and there's no one to staff these airlines.

 

[fam62c]

When the regional carriers actually start to run short of applicants and the industry starts using phrases like "ticket price increases" and "loss of air service" these new rules will quickly get reversed and the pilot retirement age will probably increase again as well. Other than airline pilots, nobody has any interest in a scenario where the demand for pilots exceeds the available supply and pilot unions start to have increased leverage. The industry doesn't want that, the government doesn't want it and the public doesn't want it.

The numbers look compelling for a serious tightening of the pilot supply and possibly even a shortage at the jobs with low pay and poor QOL, I just don't think the government is going to let it happen.

 

[HA25]

When the regional carriers actually start to run short of applicants and the industry starts using phrases like "ticket price increases" and "loss of air service" these new rules will quickly get reversed and the pilot retirement age will probably increase again as well. Other than airline pilots, nobody has any interest in a scenario where the demand for pilots exceeds the available supply and pilot unions start to have increased leverage. The industry doesn't want that, the government doesn't want it and the public doesn't want it.

The numbers look compelling for a serious tightening of the pilot supply and possibly even a shortage at the jobs with low pay and poor QOL, I just don't think the government is going to let it happen.

cynical but true.... doesn't mean we don't fight it tooth and nail the entire time though. Honestly I think it's time for paybacks towards the "regional" business model which built itself on the back of abusing pilots.

 

[fam62c]

cynical but true.... doesn't mean we don't fight it tooth and nail the entire time though. Honestly I think it's time for paybacks towards the "regional" business model which built itself on the back of abusing pilots.

I would like nothing better than to see it work out that way. They built their business model (both the regional airlines and their major partners who contract with them to provide sub-service) on the expectation of a never-ending supply of inexpensive labor. When that assumption becomes invalid they have a problem. If that day ever comes it's good for all of us because the demand for pilots and the price of pilots goes up.

 

[jmreii]

I would like nothing better than to see it work out that way. They built their business model (both the regional airlines and their major partners who contract with them to provide sub-service) on the expectation of a never-ending supply of inexpensive labor. When that assumption becomes invalid they have a problem. If that day ever comes it's good for all of us because the demand for pilots and the price of pilots goes up.

.

This particular business model the airlines are using has been in use for more than 30 years in-which you run out of pilot supply, just reduce services. The pay offered over 30 years ago at regional/commuter airlines has change little overall when adjusted for inflation. Anytime a carrier raised wages the company could not compete with it's competitors and eventually cease to exist. As far as the law changing requiring pilots to have a certain amount of experience changing, your guess is as good as mine. Congress moves at a snails pace as witness in recent news events.

 

[IBNAV8R]

The one thing that might assure the cheap supply of pilots is the MPL. Airlines will hire scads of "interns" out of the puppy factories. "Build your time here. If we like you, we'll only charge you $100/hr to fly right seat in our planes."

 

[Lear70]

The one thing that might assure the cheap supply of pilots is the MPL. Airlines will hire scads of "interns" out of the puppy factories. "Build your time here. If we like you, we'll only charge you $100/hr to fly right seat in our planes."

No, not really, no... LOL

Truth is, and what many of you are missing, is that the MPL exists in other countries because it's:

1. Not economically feasible for people to get their own ratings due to a myriad of different factors in those countries, and

2. There aren't thousands of people begging to get themselves $100k in debt to start out at $18k a year pilot jobs in RJ's in those countries.

The simple fact is, ab-initio through MPL training for pilots is expensive, to the tune of probably $100k or more PER PILOT for that airline. The airlines in those countries don't have a choice.

So what are the Regionals in the U.S. going to do when their supply of $18k a year pilots dries up? Pay $100k PER PILOT (or maybe more) to bring someone through ab-initio to get even HALF the 1,500 required hours (under a hypothetical waiver) to be able to fly for that airline? Hell, if they can even GET a waiver,,,

If people don't want to get themselves $100k in debt in student loans to start at $18k, what makes you think they'll do the same thing in a pay-for-training arrangement?

The only way I see that happening is if they start out much higher in pay, the pay-back on those loans can only be a small percentage of their paycheck per year, it's interest-free, AND they have a GUARANTEED job at a Legacy carrier in X number of years.

Otherwise, you're talking the same problem we have now... people don't want to get $100k plus in debt for a crap-paying job with no guarantee of a future payoff.

The MPL isn't an airline cure-all in this situation, and management would be loathe to pay for someone's training like they do in other countries rather than just pay a better wage and see if they can rob other airlines' pilots (which is what the Regionals started doing LAST time the supply got tight for a couple years back in 1999-2001).

 

[Twisted Mind]

It is sad that supply and demand will raise wages before ALPA.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

The simple fact is, ab-initio through MPL training for pilots is expensive, to the tune of probably $100k or more PER PILOT for that airline. The airlines in those countries don't have a choice..

A LOT MORE!!!! ANA for example, hires individuals after high school and sends them to their training academy in California for all their ratings and their first 500 hours, all this while paying for their room and board, meals, medical insurance and their training pay is not that far off from their line F/O first year salary (not going to mention numbers, don't want to depress anybody during the holidays) but all things considered the expense per pilot is over 400K, but this are individuals that will spend their entire careers at a single airline.
There is another aspect to all of this, what will they be willing to spend and/or pay to an individual that is there just to reach a minimal magic number and then move on??? I foresee training bonds coming to a regional near you ;-)

 

[Lear70]

A LOT MORE!!!! ANA for example, hires individuals after high school and sends them to their training academy in California for all their ratings and their first 500 hours, all this while paying for their room and board, meals, medical insurance and their training pay is not that far off from their line F/O first year salary (not going to mention numbers, don't want to depress anybody during the holidays) but all things considered the expense per pilot is over 400K, but this are individuals that will spend their entire careers at a single airline.
There is another aspect to all of this, what will they be willing to spend and/or pay to an individual that is there just to reach a minimal magic number and then move on??? I foresee training bonds coming to a regional near you ;-)

If you can get anyone to sign them.

That's what I mean. The only reason guys signed training bonds back in the 90's was that the career was still worth getting into, stays at Regionals were short, the pay at the Majors topped $200k pretty quickly, movement to CA wasn't bad at the Legacies, about 10 years, the payoff was worth the risk at the time.

Now you have 20+ year upgrades at many carriers, they'll fall briefly to 10 years for pilots hired in the next 3-5 years, but then they'll start ratcheting up again, and you have an entire generation of people coming out of high school and college who KNOW what the Regionals pay and planned other career tracks.

I don't see that changing if the pay doesn't come up across the board, but especially at the Regionals. They'd have to recruit AT HIGH SCHOOLS, do what ANA does and PAY them a living stipend while simultaneously paying for their training through 1,500 hours (or less IF they can get a waiver), not just the 500 hours or so ANA does, all under a training bond. Do you think Domestic U.S. airlines would do that?

Then, not to mention, in this country, a pilot simply has to file bankruptcy to get out of their training bond per our current bankruptcy laws. Do you really think the airlines are going to put themselves in a position of paying hundreds of thousands of dollars PER pilot, knowing a guy could simply bankrupt on them, instead of just raising the wages $10-15k a year for the 3-5 years a guy will be with that Regional before upgrading?

I don't think so, but by the time the Regionals start doing this to poach the pilots from other Regionals and Pt 135 gigs, there will be a gap in between those new-hires and pilots starting out training from Private Pilot because the wages are livable.

It's going to be an interesting problem for them. Wish we were going to benefit from it but, unfortunately my friend, you and I are too old to see any up-side from it. Except, perhaps, to see Ex-pat compensation come up as the pool of U.S. aviators dries up for them to hire straight into the CA seat for widebody aircraft.

Praying for GROWTH at SWA! And, if not, hoping that the upcoming hiring cleans out the ranks of people who want to go overseas and really puts a crimp on the Regionals who have gotten away with slave labor wages for decades now. Would be nice to see this career become something great again!

 

[HA25]

Praying for GROWTH at SWA! And, if not, hoping that the upcoming hiring cleans out the ranks of people who want to go overseas and really puts a crimp on the Regionals who have gotten away with slave labor wages for decades now. Would be nice to see this career become something great again!

This! ^^

If there is such a thing as justice.

 

[HA25]

It is sad that supply and demand will raise wages before ALPA.

don't blame ALPA as much as the RLA and the general level of anti-union laws in the US.

 

[ualdriver]

I agree very much with Lear's post a few above this one. I have never been too concerned about MPL because all it will do is shift new pilots to another form of expensive flight training that the current wage structure simply can't support at the regional level. If a pilot shortage materializes, wages HAVE to go up and/or the regionals are going to have to go through very expensive measures like paying for new pilot training, guaranteed loans (risky for the regional), guaranteed paths to major airline jobs, or similar non-traditional routes. Or they can choose to park their jets.

Another wrinkle that I wonder might develop (conjecture on my part).......what happens if big, desireable, global airlines like Emirates start losing experienced US pilots as they head home to their home countries? What if they open new pilot domiciles in the US like in Chicago or New York or LA? Are we going to see experienced US pilots leave major airline jobs for greener pastures at a growing airline and possibly a quicker upgrade? Maybe experienced US pilots will have the opportunity for better jobs with generous commuting contracts and/or an Air China A340 domicile in their home city.

It could start to be interesting times for airline pilots. Or......we could fall off the fiscal cliff, Iran could mine the Straits of Hormuz, Europe could fall into economic collapse, or the war in Syria spreads tipping us into another recession and the airlines get yet another reprieve. I wish I could predict the future

 

[Dan Roman]

don't blame ALPA as much as the RLA and the general level of anti-union laws in the US.

Exactly. People blame ALPA when it's just the vehicle for individual pilot groups to use. It's up to them how they use it. But there is just so much they can do for the reasons stated above. It's not like they have some magic wand they keep hidden away.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Ex-pat compensation come up as the pool of U.S. aviators dries up for them to hire straight into the CA seat for widebody aircraft.

We are starting to see that, contracts have gone from 160K to over 200K within the last five years in some markets, business class commute is now offered by several commuting contracts and not just by a couple as it used to be when I jumped into the expat market, airlines are targeting specific expat pilots by offering rosters that will start and end in OZ, the US. You are seeing now companies changing their T&C's very rapidly to get people in the door, an example would be JetStar Japan that changed their T&C'S recently with an increase in pay and the option to commute which they didn't have before, all of this within the space of a year. The expat market is not for everyone and I wouldn't recomend it for guys who still have a long productive period left on their careers or for guys for which their better half is not also exited and looking forward to living abroad or 100% supportive of having all your days of duty and days off in a row, they have to be on board if the commuting lifestyle is going to work. But for those whom the expat pilot job market ticks the right boxes, there will be some interesting options coming up in the future

 

[jmreii]

I am completely familiar with ANA's flight training school in CA. The biggest difference with the Japanese culture and other cultures outside of the USA is the willingness of corporations to train employees from scratch over the long haul. I have had many clients and friends from overseas point this particular flaw of US businesses out to me many times. Train now, better have the knowledge for short-term rewards as oppose to training a person for the future in long-term benefits. When you start to fall behind losing becomes second nature.

 

[igneousy2]

When you start to fall behind losing becomes second nature.

Are you trying to say that Japan is losing because they are wasting their time training employees since they usually just take their training to a competitor, or are you saying that the US is losing because of companies unwillingness to train people that are only going to take their skills to a competitor?