(qualified?) pilot shortage round 2? MPL

[ualdriver]

All part of the coming hiring boom that started this year. Oh to be 33 years old again coming out of the Navy

There was a hiring boom this year? Hmmmm.........I guess you'll have to tell that to all those furloughed United guys and other pilots forced to work in the Middle East and China because those are the only decent jobs that can be had.

 

[labbats]

There was a hiring boom this year? Hmmmm.........I guess you'll have to tell that to all those furloughed United guys and other pilots forced to work in the Middle East and China because those are the only decent jobs that can be had.

Maybe a pilot boom at his airline with a 55 hour guarantee. Let the good times roll.

http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/charter/usa_jet.html

 

[pilotyip]

give it a break man.... there is NO SHORTAGE of pilots that will apply and fill seats at the 6 legacy airlines, Fedex, UPS or Southwest...

$24/hr RJ's?? that's another story.

It has already started seeing it here on the lower end. Admittedly there is some slack is hiring chain right now. But that will be gone by 2015. At that time there will no shortage of pilots but the qualification will a shadow of what is seen in today's applicants. anyone remember the UAL hiring of 1964, Comm SEL, we will get you your MEL when you are hired.

 

[pilotyip]

Maybe a pilot boom at his airline with a 55 hour guarantee. Let the good times roll.

http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/charter/usa_jet.html

but it is at $175/hr

 

[ualdriver]

It has already started seeing it here on the lower end. Admittedly there is some slack is hiring chain right now. But that will be gone by 2015. At that time there will no shortage of pilots but the qualification will a shadow of what is seen in today's applicants. anyone remember the UAL hiring of 1964, Comm SEL, we will get you your MEL when you are hired.

No, you've been saying that there was supposed to be a pilot hiring boom in 2012. I don't know how you define a "boom," but a trickle of hiring doesn't come close to my definition.

Here's the dictionary.com definition of "boom"
a period of rapid economic growth, prosperity, high wages and prices, and relatively full employment.

You blew that prediction for 2012. We'll see how 2013 goes.

 

[pilotyip]

No, you've been saying that there was supposed to be a pilot hiring boom in 2012. I don't know how you define a "boom," but a trickle of hiring doesn't come close to my definition.

Here's the dictionary.com definition of "boom"
a period of rapid economic growth, prosperity, high wages and prices, and relatively full employment.

You blew that prediction for 2012. We'll see how 2013 goes.

I suppose that is one definition of ''boom", another is a loud noise. But remember I have said it will be the start of a hiring boom. A boom being 3-4 times as many jobs as two years ago when I started posting the start of the hiring boom in 2012. The upper end of the food chain will be the last to see this hiring boom, but it is building on the lower end. AE offering a $5K bonus to sign on, it is a sign of what is going on. It will spread. Good time to be building TJ PIC in the on-demand business.

 

[SIG600]

Maybe if it was now I wouldn't get out, but back in 1977, my pay was about $20K/yr, just a little above starting pay as a DAL F/O.

If you're getting out these days, it's for quality of life and to stop deploying over and over and over and over again. And over.

 

[ualdriver]

I suppose that is one definition of ''boom", another is a loud noise. But remember I have said it will be the start of a hiring boom. A boom being 3-4 times as many jobs as two years ago when I started posting the start of the hiring boom in 2012. The upper end of the food chain will be the last to see this hiring boom, but it is building on the lower end. AE offering a $5K bonus to sign on, it is a sign of what is going on. It will spread. Good time to be building TJ PIC in the on-demand business.

There's no boom, no nothing for 2012. Just lots of unemployed/underemployed pilots walking around. Just because some airlines might be forced to start hiring in 2013 to replace retiring pilots, doesn't mean it's a "boom" either. It's just an industry replacing retiring employees. In 2013, accounting firms and engineering firms will be replacing retiring engineers and accountants. That doesn't mean there's going to be a "hiring boom" for accountants and engineers.

I think you're confusing normal attrition for a "boom" because we have had 5 years of nothing.

 

[IBNAV8R]

I'm getting my Tug-Boat Capt. License... Now those boys still make the BIG BUCKS. And no body messes with the port hands...They have TRUE unions..
Career change anyone??

I assume you're willing to put in your time as a deck hand. And you thought doing the walkaround in nasty weather was bad.

But, seriously, the FAA (Congress) just mandated EVERY airline pilot have an ATP. Now we're gonna have people in the right seat who can't go rent a Cessna on the weekends? I'm thinking that will be a pretty hard sell to the American public.

 

[jonjuan]

It has already started seeing it here on the lower end. Admittedly there is some slack is hiring chain right now. But that will be gone by 2015. At that time there will no shortage of pilots but the qualification will a shadow of what is seen in today's applicants. anyone remember the UAL hiring of 1964, Comm SEL, we will get you your MEL when you are hired.

Good thing you'll be 6 feet under by then.

 

[Dornier 335]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...lantic-Ocean-Air-France-crash-killed-228.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-words-plane-crashes-sea-I-dont-control.html

Daily Mail! Sigh.... Where's the next reference coming from? Playboy? Legoland News?

 

[pilotyip]

Good thing you'll be 6 feet under by then.

by 2015? don't think so unless one of these young inexperienced F/O's does me in.

 

[Flybywire44]

http://www.alpa.org/portals/alpa/fastread/2012/jumpstories/11-27-12story2.htm#jump

Is There a Pilot Shortage or Not?
The following is reprinted with permission from Holly Hegeman’s PlaneBusiness Banter, November 21, 2012, Vol. 16, Issue 43:

Over the last several weeks, the issue of whether the airline industry faces a severe pilot shortage has generated a great deal of discussion in various media outlets. One recent article in the Wall Street Journal in particular generated a high number of email comments to us here at PlaneBusiness. That article also generated a lot of “me too” stories at other media outlets.

So is there a “catastrophic” pilot shortage about to descend upon the industry?

According to Kit Darby, of Kit Darby Aviation Consultants, more than half of current U.S. airline pilots are over 50. Darby’s firm calculates that all U.S. airlines, including cargo, charter and regional carriers, together employ nearly 96,000 pilots, and will need to find more than 65,000 over the next eight years.

Dave Barger, CEO of JetBlue Airways, was also quoted in the WSJ article, as having said in a recent speech that the industry is “facing an exodus of talent in the next few years” and could “wake up one day and find we have no one to operate or maintain those planes.”

Dan Garton, CEO of American Eagle, said the impact of the FAA’s proposed new first-officer rule “is going to become much more visible when regionals have to decrease their flying” for lack of pilots, and that the airline may have to eliminate service to some smaller cities.

Okay. Is it just me or does this sound like the old tried and true “fear”-based strategy?

Yes, there is another side to this debate, which in the last two weeks has been put forth by such folks as Lee Moak, President of the Air Line Pilots Association and Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, former US Airways Captain and now aviation consultant to CBS News.

That argument more or less tracks this line of reasoning: all of this talk of a pilot “shortage” is being overblown, and in, fact, is merely an attempt by the airline industry to pressure the FAA to back down on already congressionally mandated tougher minimum pilot training and experience standards.

In an interview on CBS, Sullenberger said that the latest round of media hype is nothing more than a “scare tactic.” Sullenberger alleged that airline executives are crying wolf, with the aim to pressure the FAA into reducing the first-officer requirements in the final version of the new rule.

“This [the change in mandatory experience requirements] is not a surprise to anyone,” he said. “You know, we’ve known since December 2007 what the mandatory age for retirement for pilots was going to be. We’ve known these rules were coming for several years. In fact, in congressional testimony this year regional airline association officials, in response to a congressional question, indicated that they fully expected by August of 2012, which has passed, that their member airlines would be completely compliant with the airline transport pilot license requirement in the new rule. As a matter of fact, they further say that out of their 18,000 regional pilots, only 100 might not be and that’s because they haven’t yet reached the age of 23, which is one of the requirements.”

Last week, ALPA President Lee Moak wrote in a letter to the editor to the WSJ,

“Next time I suggest the Wall Street Journal do a better job of reporting. “The Air Line Pilots Association, Int’l does not agree with your analysis in “Airlines Face Acute Shortage of Pilots” [November 12, 2012]. The article failed to consider a number of variables, including the cadre of highly qualified pilots who are currently furloughed or displaced from North American carriers and those flying overseas in order to make a livable wage.

“A significant number of currently furloughed or displaced American and Canadian pilots have had no choice but to accept pilot jobs in other parts of the world in order to make a living. In addition, many qualified pilots have chosen to fly for overseas airlines because of the instability in the North American aviation industry. These pilots would prefer to fly for North American carriers, if they were able to support themselves and their families as well as feel confident of a long-term career.”

He then added, “It’s also important to consider another key issue. Emirates—as well as other Middle Eastern and Asian carriers flush with cash, incentives, and favorable government aviation and tax policies—attracts highly qualified airline pilots because they offer compensation commensurate with the pilots’ training and skill; some North American carriers do not . . . so you see, the solution to increasing the quantity of airline pilots in North America lies in attracting and retaining the most qualified pilots.”

I’m going with the Lee Moak/Sullenberger view. The change in mandated training minimums for pilots is necessary, has been in the works for years, and is not unreasonable. The airline industry will survive just fine. There are, and will be, enough pilots.

Next time I suggest the Wall Street Journal do a better job of reporting.

 

[Ty Webb]

That pretty much sums it up. Well done, Ms Hegeman.

 

[pilotyip]

That pretty much sums it up. Well done, Ms Hegeman.

Yes one way to look at it, but only time will tell what this will look like by 2015. True the upper end may never see a shortage of qualifications, but the lower end will see a much different picture.

 

[doh]

Yes one way to look at it, but only time will tell what this will look like by 2015. True the upper end may never see a shortage of qualifications, but the lower end will see a much different picture.

If the lower end can't find enough qualified pilots as you say, eventually that has to affect the upper end. If the lower end can't make money, they go TU. No place to get time equals no qualified guys for the upper end to poach. But I think it will just bring about a more rational price of labor in the industry.

 

[HA25]

. True the upper end may never see a shortage of qualifications, but the lower end will see a much different picture.

Exactly! And who cares if they do??

 

[pilotyip]

Exactly! And who cares if they do??

You do, there is an important part of the economy that lies in that lower end. The lower end it the breeding group for the upper end. An airline says "Well can not find any F/O's this month, so we are cancelling the scheduled upgrade classes" So you should care what happens on the lower end. There are unintended consequences to every action, we are only guessing at what is going to happen in the future. We will wait until 2015 and see what is happening.

 

[Flybywire44]

Instead of each airline having four flights a day from one or two hubs to a regional airport than just one or two airlines could have three mainline flights a day to one hub—Problem solved.

And Ty Webb I love your Avatar:

"Who was it this time Captain? It wasn't Trixy was it?" :smash:

 

[pilotyip]

Instead of each airline having four flights a day from one or two hubs to a regional airport than just one or two airlines could have three mainline flights a day to one hub—Problem solved.

And Ty Webb I love your Avatar:

Right the pax at LIT are going to love going to ATL instead of DFW to get to ABQ, PHX or LAX.