Possible SWA T.A. pay numbers... Embrace the suck.

[Lear70]

......

Removed on request, but I HIGHLY urge you to contact your reps about the snapshots that were removed from the internal forum previously.

 

[StarrBuck]

Well that didn't take you long there ole Lear70.. Why did you take them down? You said you'd leave them up if SWAPA took them down?? I will withhold judgement until an entire TA is presented to us.. That being said, it appeared that 12 year CA rate was in excess of the 2015 American rate for the 737.. How much more than American will it take to "not suck".. Just curious..

 

[General Lee]

Were they close to the DL TA numbers before that thing was REJECTED?




Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[HighSpeed]

I pretty sure they'll be lower General

 

[T-1GUY]

Hence, Market rate vs Industry leading...

 

[funnyman12]

I hope Lear isn't referring to the numbers posted last fall. The were a wopping 0,1,2,1 or something like that from the company and 2,2,2,2 from the swapa both ridiculous

 

[PCL_128]

Hey redflyer, you ready to eat that crow yet?

 

[Lear70]

Well that didn't take you long there ole Lear70.. Why did you take them down? You said you'd leave them up if SWAPA took them down?? I will withhold judgement until an entire TA is presented to us.. That being said, it appeared that 12 year CA rate was in excess of the 2015 American rate for the 737.. How much more than American will it take to "not suck".. Just curious..

Got a call from one of the Execs, and although I disagree with the premise, I'm going to try to have a little faith, although the last time I did that with Southwest management it bit me (and every AAI CA) in the a$$.

That said, to answer your question, for it to not to "suck", you'll have to:

1. Address the fact that ALL SWA F/O's at the bottom 1/3 of the seniority list will make $1.5-$2.0 Million LESS than the top 2/3 of the list due to stagnating upgrade times. No longer 5-7 years, more like 15-20.
2. Bring rates that are MORE than COLA IF we're going to give up anything in our CBA to get them. COLA is a 100% given in this economic environment without giving up a d*mn thing. If you don't believe this, you're part of the problem.
3. Make the 2013 and 2014 rates that Retro will be geared off of at LEAST equal to cola. By starting out lower than COLA those years then bumping up in 2015, when Retro is geared off 2013 and 2014, it's not rocket science to realize that they're not giving us full Retro accounting for inflation.

Lastly, for your last question, your math is wrong.

American 12 year 737CA is $228 per Trip. Converted to TFP @ 1.167 is $266.08 per trip, but now apply it to an average line holder.

$228 TFP * 90 hours (avg guarantee) is $20,520
$266.08 / Hr * 78 hours (line holder guarantee at AA) is $20,754.24 per month

So no, it's not better than American, and the F/O rates are even less comparable.

Not to mention they get a LOT more in retirement than we do.

It may be good enough for you at the top of the food chain, but for the rest of us, it's unacceptable.

 

[Lear70]

I hope Lear isn't referring to the numbers posted last fall. The were a wopping 0,1,2,1 or something like that from the company and 2,2,2,2 from the swapa both ridiculous

No, the ones that were snapshotted yesterday from the SWAPA site when the IT people made an error and accidentally posted the calculator to the negotiations tab on the main page.

There's a sticky at the top of the crappy internal forum about it.

 

[27 driver]

I think we pretty much already know what to expect....And it ain't good.

 

[SWA Bubba]

Got a call from one of the Execs, and although I disagree with the premise, I'm going to try to have a little faith, although the last time I did that with Southwest management it bit me (and every AAI CA) in the a$$.

That said, to answer your question, for it to not to "suck", you'll have to:

1. Address the fact that ALL SWA F/O's at the bottom 1/3 of the seniority list will make $1.5-$2.0 Million LESS than the top 2/3 of the list due to stagnating upgrade times. No longer 5-7 years, more like 15-20.
2. Bring rates that are MORE than COLA IF we're going to give up anything in our CBA to get them. COLA is a 100% given in this economic environment without giving up a d*mn thing. If you don't believe this, you're part of the problem.
3. Make the 2013 and 2014 rates that Retro will be geared off of at LEAST equal to cola. By starting out lower than COLA those years then bumping up in 2015, when Retro is geared off 2013 and 2014, it's not rocket science to realize that they're not giving us full Retro accounting for inflation.

Lastly, for your last question, your math is wrong.

American 12 year 737CA is $228 per Trip. Converted to TFP @ 1.167 is $266.08 per trip, but now apply it to an average line holder.

$228 TFP * 90 hours (avg guarantee) is $20,520
$266.08 / Hr * 78 hours (line holder guarantee at AA) is $20,754.24 per month

So no, it's not better than American, and the F/O rates are even less comparable.

Not to mention they get a LOT more in retirement than we do.

It may be good enough for you at the top of the food chain, but for the rest of us, it's unacceptable.

You're a little premature on the "embrace the suck" part, since nobody's seen the actual contract. We have no idea of the totality; it may suck, it may be great, it may be okay.

Also, for your #1 point above, there's no airline contract in the world that considers upgrade time, let alone "addresses that fact." Also, "15-20 year upgrade" is based on a newhire with absolutely no growth, just retirements. And they've already announced 8% growth in 2016 and 7% in 2017, although as always, we'll see what really happens.

And speaking of "wrong math," I think it may be you with the numbers wrong. You multiply SWA tfp rate by the factor (1.167) to get hourly pay rate, not the other way around. If you wanted to convert someone else's hourly pay to tfp for us, you'd divide by the same factor. You did it backwards.

For an example, if American's new rate is $228/hour, that would equate to a Southwest guy making approx. $195.37/tfp. A 12 year Southwest captain makes $189.78 at our current rates, which equates to approx. $221.47/hour today. And $189.78/trip times the stated average of 95 tfp/month yields $18,029/month for a SWA Captain today.

If an American 12 year 737 Captain really makes $228/hour, you multiply that times his 78 hours guarantee to get $17,784/month. I don't actually know what an American guy makes; I'm just using your numbers above.

Anyway, we'll see what happens. By the way, I hear there's a pill for that "premature" problem of yours. :blush:

Bubba

 

[slaquer5]

Got a call from one of the Execs, and although I disagree with the premise, I'm going to try to have a little faith, although the last time I did that with Southwest management it bit me (and every AAI CA) in the a$$.

That said, to answer your question, for it to not to "suck", you'll have to:

1. Address the fact that ALL SWA F/O's at the bottom 1/3 of the seniority list will make $1.5-$2.0 Million LESS than the top 2/3 of the list due to stagnating upgrade times. No longer 5-7 years, more like 15-20.
2. Bring rates that are MORE than COLA IF we're going to give up anything in our CBA to get them. COLA is a 100% given in this economic environment without giving up a d*mn thing. If you don't believe this, you're part of the problem.
3. Make the 2013 and 2014 rates that Retro will be geared off of at LEAST equal to cola. By starting out lower than COLA those years then bumping up in 2015, when Retro is geared off 2013 and 2014, it's not rocket science to realize that they're not giving us full Retro accounting for inflation.

Lastly, for your last question, your math is wrong.

American 12 year 737CA is $228 per Trip. Converted to TFP @ 1.167 is $266.08 per trip, but now apply it to an average line holder.

$228 TFP * 90 hours (avg guarantee) is $20,520
$266.08 / Hr * 78 hours (line holder guarantee at AA) is $20,754.24 per month

So no, it's not better than American, and the F/O rates are even less comparable.

Not to mention they get a LOT more in retirement than we do.

It may be good enough for you at the top of the food chain, but for the rest of us, it's unacceptable.

What is a trip at American ?


I now see how the AT pilots feel they took a pay cut.

 

[27 driver]

$10 bucks says that growth comes in the form of more seats....not more planes. Thats not growth as far as pilots are concerned.

 

[Lear70]

Also, for your #1 point above, there's no airline contract in the world that considers upgrade time, let alone "addresses that fact."

There's actually several ways to address that issue. For instance, you could do it with longer F/O longevity steps (up to 15 years or more) so that F/O rates keep going up past year 12. There are quite a few ways to help ease that pain.

Also, "15-20 year upgrade" is based on a newhire with absolutely no growth, just retirements. And they've already announced 8% growth in 2016 and 7% in 2017, although as always, we'll see what really happens.

Nope, that's with 1% growth yearly, EVERY year. 15-20 years. Ask a new-hire to go to www.myseniority.com and enter there details, put in 1% growth, and see what it tells them.

As for the 8% and 7%, that's ASM growth through the retirements of the classics and bringing on -800's and longer stage lengths. Gary has been pretty clear on no hull growth. You'd think if there was going to be any, he'd use it as a carrot, but he's been pretty clear on flat fleet "growth".

And speaking of "wrong math," I think it may be you with the numbers wrong. You multiply SWA tfp rate by the factor (1.167) to get hourly pay rate, not the other way around. If you wanted to convert someone else's hourly pay to tfp for us, you'd divide by the same factor. You did it backwards.

Yes, that's what happens when I get in a hurry, was a busy day with only two days off in between trips.

For an example, if American's new rate is $228/hour, that would equate to a Southwest guy making approx. $195.37/tfp. A 12 year Southwest captain makes $189.78 at our current rates, which equates to approx. $221.47/hour today. And $189.78/trip times the stated average of 95 tfp/month yields $18,029/month for a SWA Captain today.

If an American 12 year 737 Captain really makes $228/hour, you multiply that times his 78 hours guarantee to get $17,784/month. I don't actually know what an American guy makes; I'm just using your numbers above.

Not quite. The pay rates are correct, thanks for the clarification, but you can't use SWA average to AA guarantee.

Use Guarantee to Guarantee (which is what I did) or average credit to average credit. I don't know what the average AA person credits but on guarantee to guarantee comparison, AA still has us beat.

And then again, there's that pesky higher retirement rate they have.

Anyway, we'll see what happens. By the way, I hear there's a pill for that "premature" problem of yours. :blush:

Bubba

If you say so, glad to hear you've found a solution for your problem, I'm guessing that's how you know so much about it.

 

[Lear70]

What is a trip at American ?


I now see how the AT pilots feel they took a pay cut.

Not quite, but funny...

I just flew a trip with a former AirTran pilot. He carries a snapshot of his last year CA pay at AAI as his login screen on his iPad. $230k. When he came over as an F/O, he lost quite a bit of money, even trying to play the Premium Time game. For 2 years.

For some people (not me, but for some) it certainly was a pay cut. I know you guys don't want to think that, but it just is.

Back to the discussion:

I'll be happy if those numbers are off when the dust settles, but the simple fact is that SOMEONE told the IT people what numbers to plug in for the calculator. They didn't pull those percentages out of thin air.

I suspect they are closer to where the NC was at than not, which is a big problem, especially if they sold Scope as was rumored to get it. At the end of the day, we'd better be about twice those numbers for 2013 and 2014 before we even DISCUSS Scope (which is a non-starter with a LARGE percentage of people here).

Which of those two numbers do you think we'll be closer to? For a senior guy capped on 12 year CA pay, it's not so bad. For an F/O who is going to be topped out in a little over 18 months, the first set of numbers sucks.

 

[HowardBorden]

As for the 8% and 7%, that's ASM growth through the retirements of the classics and bringing on -800's and longer stage lengths. Gary has been pretty clear on no hull growth. You'd think if there was going to be any, he'd use it as a carrot, but he's been pretty clear on flat fleet "growth".

That is incorrect. GK has in fact stated that there will be hull growth in '16.

Southwest Airlines CEO, chairman and president Gary Kelly stated (13-May-2015) the carrier has designated its Boeing firm orders in 2016 as 737-800s rather than 737-700s, which will increase its 737-800 fleet to 135 aircraft by the end of 2016. Southwest plans to grow its total fleet by 2% in 2016 year-over-year, according to Mr Kelly, although a "significant number of planned retirements" will bring its fleet to roughly 715 aircraft by YE2016. The carrier intends to take delivery of 19 pre-owned 737-700 aircraft in 2015, and four pre-owned 737-700 aircraft in 2016. Southwest's firm aircraft capital commitments are estimated to be approximately USD1.1 billion for 2015, and in the USD1.3 billion to USD1.4 billion range for 2016. The carrier estimates total capital expenditures will be approximately USD1.8 billion in 2015.

http://www.oag.com/Industry-News/so...gnates-firm-orders-737-800s-grow-fleet-2-2016

 

[flyingitalian]

I just flew a trip with a former AirTran pilot. He carries a snapshot of his last year CA pay at AAI as his login screen on his iPad. $230k.

You mean the contract they got when Uncle Gary bought AirTran, because you know under Fornano that was a pipe dream. 7 years of negotiation and you were not anywhere close, mostly because he didn't have it to give you. What did he make under Fornaro?

 

[GoodTimes]

"Not quite, but funny...

I just flew a trip with a former AirTran pilot. He carries a snapshot of his last year CA pay at AAI as his login screen on his iPad. $230k. When he came over as an F/O, he lost quite a bit of money, even trying to play the Premium Time game. For 2 years."






Pay cut over the course of a career, or a pay cut for a couple of years?

 

[gt1900]

You mean the contract they got when Uncle Gary bought AirTran, because you know under Fornano that was a pipe dream. 7 years of negotiation and you were not anywhere close, mostly because he didn't have it to give you. What did he make under Fornaro?

AAI turned down very similar pay rates in 2006 that Fornaro offered up, so it wasn't a "pipe dream". But we've been over this a million times.

 

[PCL_128]

Pay cut over the course of a career, or a pay cut for a couple of years?

"Over the course of a career" is all theoretical. It's impossible to know what his career earnings would have ended up being at AirTran, and it's all guesswork about what the years will bring ahead at SWA. The only thing that matters is real numbers, and they took pay cuts for those real years.

 

[Lear70]

AAI turned down very similar pay rates in 2006 that Fornaro offered up, so it wasn't a "pipe dream". But we've been over this a million times.

Yep, and I'm not interested in the debate. Moving on.

"Over the course of a career" is all theoretical. It's impossible to know what his career earnings would have ended up being at AirTran, and it's all guesswork about what the years will bring ahead at SWA. The only thing that matters is real numbers, and they took pay cuts for those real years.

Yup.

He'll make it back over the next two years now that he has upgraded (at 40, he was one of our youngest Captains and now he has 25 years in the left seat - most of our Captains that have upgraded are in their late 50's). I'd have upgraded by now at AAI with planned deliveries and retirements (many of which were already firmed up), so instead of being a junior F/O here I'd have been a junior CA there and won't make a single dime more (likely will even lose money compared to AAI CA) over the next 8-10 years until I can upgrade.

Just the way airline life works. Praying to God we don't buy another airline unless it's a pre-engineered job like Frontier.

That is incorrect. GK has in fact stated that there will be hull growth in '16.

Southwest Airlines CEO, chairman and president Gary Kelly stated (13-May-2015) the carrier has designated its Boeing firm orders in 2016 as 737-800s rather than 737-700s, which will increase its 737-800 fleet to 135 aircraft by the end of 2016. Southwest plans to grow its total fleet by 2% in 2016 year-over-year, according to Mr Kelly, although a "significant number of planned retirements" will bring its fleet to roughly 715 aircraft by YE2016. The carrier intends to take delivery of 19 pre-owned 737-700 aircraft in 2015, and four pre-owned 737-700 aircraft in 2016. Southwest's firm aircraft capital commitments are estimated to be approximately USD1.1 billion for 2015, and in the USD1.3 billion to USD1.4 billion range for 2016. The carrier estimates total capital expenditures will be approximately USD1.8 billion in 2015.

http://www.oag.com/Industry-News/sou...w-fleet-2-2016

So 715 Aircraft total by the end of next year.

How many airplanes did both carriers have combined pre-merger?

So much growth, it's amazing! :/

 

[Uncle Bunkle]

No, the ones that were snapshotted yesterday from the SWAPA site when the IT people made an error and accidentally posted the calculator to the negotiations tab on the main page.

I've got a few pics.

 

[StarrBuck]

Rich,

The current TFP conversion factor for TFP -> Hourly pay is not 1.167.. It is 1.149. Not sure where you came up with 1.167.. 10 years ago we used 1.13.. I'm not sure to be honest why it crept up to 1.149. Of course that whole conversion issue is debatable as we don't know what American acutally pays per "block hour flown"..

I agree with you regarding the COLA adjustments. We should be able to negotiate 3 percent minimum in 13/14/15 for COLA alone. That would put us ahead of American today, but I don't feel we should need to give up section 1 to get COLA adjustments.

3/3/3 puts 11 dollars per hour more than american today..

 

[Ty Webb]

You mean the contract they got when Uncle Gary bought AirTran, because you know under Fornano that was a pipe dream. 7 years of negotiation and you were not anywhere close, mostly because he didn't have it to give you. What did he make under Fornaro?

Thats one way to look at it, I guess. . .

The other way would be that we wiped our asses with those numbers when they were presented to us in a TA years before.

Maybe you'll get the chance to do the same.

 

[HowardBorden]

So 715 Aircraft total by the end of next year.

How many airplanes did both carriers have combined pre-merger?

So much growth, it's amazing! :/

Pre-merger totals were 682 airframes. Is it monstrous growth, obviously not, but your statement: "Gary has been pretty clear on no hull growth." is demonstrably false.

http://centreforaviation.com/analys...an-merger-atlanta-and-revenue-the-story-36123

 

[Lear70]

Pre-merger totals were 682 airframes. Is it monstrous growth, obviously not, but your statement: "Gary has been pretty clear on no hull growth." is demonstrably false.

http://centreforaviation.com/analys...an-merger-atlanta-and-revenue-the-story-36123

So 4% growth in 5 years. Excellent. That's <1% per year.

Again, a LOT of people on the F/O list here are looking at 15-20 year upgrades, especially those <90% on the seniority list. Period. Mine alone will be 8 years from now, minimum, while approaching 10 years' longevity.

Oh, and that's with 1% growth yearly. Every year. But hey, if we can get 4% per year EVERY year, for the next 5 years, I'll be the first on here cheering thr growth along. Until then I can't get really excited about one year out of the last 5 growing 4.x%. That's the difference between holding weekends off in Denver versus Vegas. 2 years from now.

 

[Lear70]

Rich,

The current TFP conversion factor for TFP -> Hourly pay is not 1.167.. It is 1.149. Not sure where you came up with 1.167.. 10 years ago we used 1.13.. I'm not sure to be honest why it crept up to 1.149. Of course that whole conversion issue is debatable as we don't know what American acutally pays per "block hour flown"..

I agree with you regarding the COLA adjustments. We should be able to negotiate 3 percent minimum in 13/14/15 for COLA alone. That would put us ahead of American today, but I don't feel we should need to give up section 1 to get COLA adjustments.

3/3/3 puts 11 dollars per hour more than american today..

Hell if I know... I think that might have been the sick time conversion rate? It's stuck in my head for some reason, maybe something else entirely.

As for 3/3/3? Maybe with ZERO give-backs elsewhere, matching the other airline's 401k's, and commutable lines. Maybe.

 

[HowardBorden]

So 4% growth in 5 years. Excellent. That's <1% per year.

Again, a LOT of people on the F/O list here are looking at 15-20 year upgrades, especially those <90% on the seniority list. Period. Mine alone will be 8 years from now, minimum, while approaching 10 years' longevity.

Oh, and that's with 1% growth yearly. Every year. But hey, if we can get 4% per year EVERY year, for the next 5 years, I'll be the first on here cheering thr growth along. Until then I can't get really excited about one year out of the last 5 growing 4.x%. That's the difference between holding weekends off in Denver versus Vegas. 2 years from now.

I never claimed it to be blockbuster growth! And trust me, I'm well aware of upgrade times with and without growth. The point was that your original statement was false and misleading. I for one am hoping the exponential explosion on the ROIC front will soon lead to much better hull growth numbers going forward. If you want forecast gloom and doom feel free to do so but there is no need to falsify the information to project that scenario, there is plenty of real life doom and gloom to go around without embellishing it.

 

[Lear70]

I never claimed it to be blockbuster growth! And trust me, I'm well aware of upgrade times with and without growth. The point was that your original statement was false and misleading. I for one am hoping the exponential explosion on the ROIC front will soon lead to much better hull growth numbers going forward. If you want forecast gloom and doom feel free to do so but there is no need to falsify the information to project that scenario, there is plenty of real life doom and gloom to go around without embellishing it.

Wasn't trying to "falsify" anything. Last I heard the "growth" numbers brought us up above pre-merger numbers by only a few hulls; last I read, everyone on the internal board was gnashing their teeth wondering why we were hiring so many people.

I have a tendency to "check out" of the internal board for weeks/months at a time these days (and I'm not on TOB). Hell, I haven't been on here since Rich B died. Too much negativity. I'm already annoyed at our schedules and how much we're gone, so I try to stay off the boards except when something bigger is going on - trying to stay positive and the forums don't help.

Hopefully those numbers are something that got tossed this week at the BoD meeting, if they were ever real numbers to begin with. As I said on the internal board, I just find it odd that such random decimal percentages were used. Knowing how things get set up with IT people, they're usually instructed to use certain numbers, not "just make them up so we can give this demo".

Been down this road before. I don't trust *anybody*. Better to raise the flag of doubt and have a lot of people banging down the BoD's door of "you'd better not put those rates in a T.A." than say nothing and then be mad when that IS what we get.

 

[400ADude]

Yep, and I'm not interested in the debate. Moving on.


Yup.

He'll make it back over the next two years now that he has upgraded (at 40, he was one of our youngest Captains and now he has 25 years in the left seat - most of our Captains that have upgraded are in their late 50's). I'd have upgraded by now at AAI with planned deliveries and retirements (many of which were already firmed up), so instead of being a junior F/O here I'd have been a junior CA there and won't make a single dime more (likely will even lose money compared to AAI CA) over the next 8-10 years until I can upgrade.

Just the way airline life works. Praying to God we don't buy another airline unless it's a pre-engineered job like Frontier.


So 715 Aircraft total by the end of next year.

How many airplanes did both carriers have combined pre-merger?

So much growth, it's amazing! :/

Go get a job at 7 eleven you ******************** bag loser. Glad we didnt have winey, chicken********************s like you in any of the wars our country has fought cause we be done. You're such a sore hairy donught hole loser.