Possible SWA T.A. pay numbers... Embrace the suck.

[SWA Bubba]

Got a call from one of the Execs, and although I disagree with the premise, I'm going to try to have a little faith, although the last time I did that with Southwest management it bit me (and every AAI CA) in the a$$.

That said, to answer your question, for it to not to "suck", you'll have to:

1. Address the fact that ALL SWA F/O's at the bottom 1/3 of the seniority list will make $1.5-$2.0 Million LESS than the top 2/3 of the list due to stagnating upgrade times. No longer 5-7 years, more like 15-20.
2. Bring rates that are MORE than COLA IF we're going to give up anything in our CBA to get them. COLA is a 100% given in this economic environment without giving up a d*mn thing. If you don't believe this, you're part of the problem.
3. Make the 2013 and 2014 rates that Retro will be geared off of at LEAST equal to cola. By starting out lower than COLA those years then bumping up in 2015, when Retro is geared off 2013 and 2014, it's not rocket science to realize that they're not giving us full Retro accounting for inflation.

Lastly, for your last question, your math is wrong.

American 12 year 737CA is $228 per Trip. Converted to TFP @ 1.167 is $266.08 per trip, but now apply it to an average line holder.

$228 TFP * 90 hours (avg guarantee) is $20,520
$266.08 / Hr * 78 hours (line holder guarantee at AA) is $20,754.24 per month

So no, it's not better than American, and the F/O rates are even less comparable.

Not to mention they get a LOT more in retirement than we do.

It may be good enough for you at the top of the food chain, but for the rest of us, it's unacceptable.

You're a little premature on the "embrace the suck" part, since nobody's seen the actual contract. We have no idea of the totality; it may suck, it may be great, it may be okay.

Also, for your #1 point above, there's no airline contract in the world that considers upgrade time, let alone "addresses that fact." Also, "15-20 year upgrade" is based on a newhire with absolutely no growth, just retirements. And they've already announced 8% growth in 2016 and 7% in 2017, although as always, we'll see what really happens.

And speaking of "wrong math," I think it may be you with the numbers wrong. You multiply SWA tfp rate by the factor (1.167) to get hourly pay rate, not the other way around. If you wanted to convert someone else's hourly pay to tfp for us, you'd divide by the same factor. You did it backwards.

For an example, if American's new rate is $228/hour, that would equate to a Southwest guy making approx. $195.37/tfp. A 12 year Southwest captain makes $189.78 at our current rates, which equates to approx. $221.47/hour today. And $189.78/trip times the stated average of 95 tfp/month yields $18,029/month for a SWA Captain today.

If an American 12 year 737 Captain really makes $228/hour, you multiply that times his 78 hours guarantee to get $17,784/month. I don't actually know what an American guy makes; I'm just using your numbers above.

Anyway, we'll see what happens. By the way, I hear there's a pill for that "premature" problem of yours. :blush:

Bubba

 

[slaquer5]

Got a call from one of the Execs, and although I disagree with the premise, I'm going to try to have a little faith, although the last time I did that with Southwest management it bit me (and every AAI CA) in the a$$.

That said, to answer your question, for it to not to "suck", you'll have to:

1. Address the fact that ALL SWA F/O's at the bottom 1/3 of the seniority list will make $1.5-$2.0 Million LESS than the top 2/3 of the list due to stagnating upgrade times. No longer 5-7 years, more like 15-20.
2. Bring rates that are MORE than COLA IF we're going to give up anything in our CBA to get them. COLA is a 100% given in this economic environment without giving up a d*mn thing. If you don't believe this, you're part of the problem.
3. Make the 2013 and 2014 rates that Retro will be geared off of at LEAST equal to cola. By starting out lower than COLA those years then bumping up in 2015, when Retro is geared off 2013 and 2014, it's not rocket science to realize that they're not giving us full Retro accounting for inflation.

Lastly, for your last question, your math is wrong.

American 12 year 737CA is $228 per Trip. Converted to TFP @ 1.167 is $266.08 per trip, but now apply it to an average line holder.

$228 TFP * 90 hours (avg guarantee) is $20,520
$266.08 / Hr * 78 hours (line holder guarantee at AA) is $20,754.24 per month

So no, it's not better than American, and the F/O rates are even less comparable.

Not to mention they get a LOT more in retirement than we do.

It may be good enough for you at the top of the food chain, but for the rest of us, it's unacceptable.

What is a trip at American ?


I now see how the AT pilots feel they took a pay cut.

 

[27 driver]

$10 bucks says that growth comes in the form of more seats....not more planes. Thats not growth as far as pilots are concerned.

 

[Lear70]

Also, for your #1 point above, there's no airline contract in the world that considers upgrade time, let alone "addresses that fact."

There's actually several ways to address that issue. For instance, you could do it with longer F/O longevity steps (up to 15 years or more) so that F/O rates keep going up past year 12. There are quite a few ways to help ease that pain.

Also, "15-20 year upgrade" is based on a newhire with absolutely no growth, just retirements. And they've already announced 8% growth in 2016 and 7% in 2017, although as always, we'll see what really happens.

Nope, that's with 1% growth yearly, EVERY year. 15-20 years. Ask a new-hire to go to www.myseniority.com and enter there details, put in 1% growth, and see what it tells them.

As for the 8% and 7%, that's ASM growth through the retirements of the classics and bringing on -800's and longer stage lengths. Gary has been pretty clear on no hull growth. You'd think if there was going to be any, he'd use it as a carrot, but he's been pretty clear on flat fleet "growth".

And speaking of "wrong math," I think it may be you with the numbers wrong. You multiply SWA tfp rate by the factor (1.167) to get hourly pay rate, not the other way around. If you wanted to convert someone else's hourly pay to tfp for us, you'd divide by the same factor. You did it backwards.

Yes, that's what happens when I get in a hurry, was a busy day with only two days off in between trips.

For an example, if American's new rate is $228/hour, that would equate to a Southwest guy making approx. $195.37/tfp. A 12 year Southwest captain makes $189.78 at our current rates, which equates to approx. $221.47/hour today. And $189.78/trip times the stated average of 95 tfp/month yields $18,029/month for a SWA Captain today.

If an American 12 year 737 Captain really makes $228/hour, you multiply that times his 78 hours guarantee to get $17,784/month. I don't actually know what an American guy makes; I'm just using your numbers above.

Not quite. The pay rates are correct, thanks for the clarification, but you can't use SWA average to AA guarantee.

Use Guarantee to Guarantee (which is what I did) or average credit to average credit. I don't know what the average AA person credits but on guarantee to guarantee comparison, AA still has us beat.

And then again, there's that pesky higher retirement rate they have.

Anyway, we'll see what happens. By the way, I hear there's a pill for that "premature" problem of yours. :blush:

Bubba

If you say so, glad to hear you've found a solution for your problem, I'm guessing that's how you know so much about it.

 

[Lear70]

What is a trip at American ?


I now see how the AT pilots feel they took a pay cut.

Not quite, but funny...

I just flew a trip with a former AirTran pilot. He carries a snapshot of his last year CA pay at AAI as his login screen on his iPad. $230k. When he came over as an F/O, he lost quite a bit of money, even trying to play the Premium Time game. For 2 years.

For some people (not me, but for some) it certainly was a pay cut. I know you guys don't want to think that, but it just is.

Back to the discussion:

I'll be happy if those numbers are off when the dust settles, but the simple fact is that SOMEONE told the IT people what numbers to plug in for the calculator. They didn't pull those percentages out of thin air.

I suspect they are closer to where the NC was at than not, which is a big problem, especially if they sold Scope as was rumored to get it. At the end of the day, we'd better be about twice those numbers for 2013 and 2014 before we even DISCUSS Scope (which is a non-starter with a LARGE percentage of people here).

Which of those two numbers do you think we'll be closer to? For a senior guy capped on 12 year CA pay, it's not so bad. For an F/O who is going to be topped out in a little over 18 months, the first set of numbers sucks.

 

[HowardBorden]

As for the 8% and 7%, that's ASM growth through the retirements of the classics and bringing on -800's and longer stage lengths. Gary has been pretty clear on no hull growth. You'd think if there was going to be any, he'd use it as a carrot, but he's been pretty clear on flat fleet "growth".

That is incorrect. GK has in fact stated that there will be hull growth in '16.

Southwest Airlines CEO, chairman and president Gary Kelly stated (13-May-2015) the carrier has designated its Boeing firm orders in 2016 as 737-800s rather than 737-700s, which will increase its 737-800 fleet to 135 aircraft by the end of 2016. Southwest plans to grow its total fleet by 2% in 2016 year-over-year, according to Mr Kelly, although a "significant number of planned retirements" will bring its fleet to roughly 715 aircraft by YE2016. The carrier intends to take delivery of 19 pre-owned 737-700 aircraft in 2015, and four pre-owned 737-700 aircraft in 2016. Southwest's firm aircraft capital commitments are estimated to be approximately USD1.1 billion for 2015, and in the USD1.3 billion to USD1.4 billion range for 2016. The carrier estimates total capital expenditures will be approximately USD1.8 billion in 2015.

http://www.oag.com/Industry-News/so...gnates-firm-orders-737-800s-grow-fleet-2-2016

 

[flyingitalian]

I just flew a trip with a former AirTran pilot. He carries a snapshot of his last year CA pay at AAI as his login screen on his iPad. $230k.

You mean the contract they got when Uncle Gary bought AirTran, because you know under Fornano that was a pipe dream. 7 years of negotiation and you were not anywhere close, mostly because he didn't have it to give you. What did he make under Fornaro?

 

[GoodTimes]

"Not quite, but funny...

I just flew a trip with a former AirTran pilot. He carries a snapshot of his last year CA pay at AAI as his login screen on his iPad. $230k. When he came over as an F/O, he lost quite a bit of money, even trying to play the Premium Time game. For 2 years."






Pay cut over the course of a career, or a pay cut for a couple of years?

 

[gt1900]

You mean the contract they got when Uncle Gary bought AirTran, because you know under Fornano that was a pipe dream. 7 years of negotiation and you were not anywhere close, mostly because he didn't have it to give you. What did he make under Fornaro?

AAI turned down very similar pay rates in 2006 that Fornaro offered up, so it wasn't a "pipe dream". But we've been over this a million times.

 

[PCL_128]

Pay cut over the course of a career, or a pay cut for a couple of years?

"Over the course of a career" is all theoretical. It's impossible to know what his career earnings would have ended up being at AirTran, and it's all guesswork about what the years will bring ahead at SWA. The only thing that matters is real numbers, and they took pay cuts for those real years.