The nosegear collapsed after the aircraft exited the runway.
The 15% safety margin is already built into the performance tables provided in PCL's CFM.
If Toolcrib is correct and any ice was on the runway, the lowest possible landing distance would be around 8000 feet. Just a guess but if there was ice, a lot more damage would have been done to the aircraft and it would have gone farther past the runway end. That is just a guess.
The real culprit here may have been the tailwind component. On the loose snow chart, you add 160 ft/kt of tailwind. An 8 knot tailwind would add 1280 feet to the distance. While 8 knots is within the aircraft limitation, if there was a tailwind of 8 kts, the runway would be about 700 feet short. This might also account for damage level.
Interesting speculation, but who knows? I guess that is why they conduct an investigation.
The 15% safety margin is already built into the performance tables provided in PCL's CFM.
If Toolcrib is correct and any ice was on the runway, the lowest possible landing distance would be around 8000 feet. Just a guess but if there was ice, a lot more damage would have been done to the aircraft and it would have gone farther past the runway end. That is just a guess.
The real culprit here may have been the tailwind component. On the loose snow chart, you add 160 ft/kt of tailwind. An 8 knot tailwind would add 1280 feet to the distance. While 8 knots is within the aircraft limitation, if there was a tailwind of 8 kts, the runway would be about 700 feet short. This might also account for damage level.
Interesting speculation, but who knows? I guess that is why they conduct an investigation.