Outlook for SWA?

[GuppyWN]

OK. Back to the topic at hand.

SWA still has one of the lowest operating cost in the business. Our CASM minus fuel is the lowest it's been since 2000.

Will upgrades slow? For 2008 it appears so but I will remind you that we ARE hiring and upgrading pilots and as short as this spring we were saying we couldn't find airplanes fast enough and leased/purchased 4 700's from the secondary markets. This management is doing just that, managing the airline, not letting the tail wag the dog.

Ask you AA buds how long the upgrade is over there. Or United, or Delta. Folks were still buying new jets to ADD to the fleet, not replace older airframes.

Will the train grind to a halt? I suspect it will sometime in the future. The question is when? We have 500 jets. We board more passengers in this country than any other airline and we have LOTS of new airplanes on order. We only serve 63 markets in the whole country, THIS country. Just stick around awhile, this one trick pony is educating themselves on international ops.

What happens when the 737 line stops? Who knows. Boeing WILL bring a new type online in the next several years that is tailored to short/mid range markets.

I am still bullish on this joint and think we have the right people in place to make the right decisions.

Amen.
Gup

 

[Big Beer Belly]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, and you did it in your green flight suit and all of the french male waiters swooned over you. Thanks Maverick. (or Goose?) I am soooo glad you are happy to go to LBB. Guess what Iceman? At Delta we can CHOOSE to fly either INTL or domestic. Isn't it great to have an actual choice, even in aircraft type too? Ah, you don't care----you are going to go to the Awful House (wafle house) in Midland for a great T-Bone steak. Sounds gooood. So, do you miss that military 757 you flew? Great power, eh? Do you think about it when you are flying a 737-300 in West Texas at 105 degrees F? I bet you do. Ah, atleast you had the experience in it for awhile. I fly it all the time, it is wonderful. What a sexy bird. Some of our newhires are getting hired directly onto it. Enjoy that T bone.


Bye Bye--General Lee

FWIW.... General... I always get a chuckle out of your posts! The SWA guys as a group are absolutely scared to death to leave the CONUS... end of story.

Their fear is disguised as bravado... how they love Amarillo... or don't want to be caught dead in Sydney (because they're to far from home???...)

Fact is... international flying (ETOPS/alternate/ China/polar considerations) does add an element they're no doubt unfamiliar with but it's not Voodoo magic like many of them speak of.)

International flying can be an absolute hoot (with a good crew, as anywhere) and is a great way to see the world and experience things you wouldn't otherwise stateside (pyramids, castles, pubs, cathedrals, etc... ad nauseum)

Personally, after having been privileged to visit over 80 countries/territories SO FAR... I wouldn't trade it for the world! I think I am blessed to have a much broader perspective on world events than some of my neighbors.

YMMV,

BBB

 

[Flyarcticcat]

FWIW.... General... I always get a chuckle out of your posts! The SWA guys as a group are absolutely scared to death to leave the CONUS... end of story.

Their fear is disguised as bravado... how they love Amarillo... or don't want to be caught dead in Sydney (because they're to far from home???...)

Fact is... international flying (ETOPS/alternate/ China/polar considerations) does add an element they're no doubt unfamiliar with but it's not Voodoo magic like many of them speak of.)

International flying can be an absolute hoot (with a good crew, as anywhere) and is a great way to see the world and experience things you wouldn't otherwise stateside (pyramids, castles, pubs, cathedrals, etc... ad nauseum)

Personally, after having been privileged to visit over 80 countries/territories SO FAR... I wouldn't trade it for the world! I think I am blessed to have a much broader perspective on world events than some of my neighbors.

YMMV,

BBB

Flying international, lets see if half of the pilots come from the military then I would think they have alot international experience no matter what airline you work for. If and when SWA decides to go international they will do it right and have a ton of fun along the way.

 

[GuppyWN]

Hey BBB I'm not at all afraid of foriegn countries. Matter of fact I was just in El Paso last night.

Gup

 

[IronCityBlue]

Partially true.

Fuel prices are rising, and Southwest is feeling the pinch.

However, Southwest still has the lowest CASM ex-fuel in the business. In other words, if you were to take fuel out of the equation for all the airlines' CASM, Southwest would still have the lowest costs. So if all airlines were paying the same price for fuel, and there were no such thing as hedging, SWA would still have the lowest CASM. And of course, in a commodities market such as the airline industry has become, the producer with the lowest costs has the best advantage - they set the prices for a given market.

So while Southwest definitely has some challenges right now, and things certainly aren't as easy as they once were, I think people who say, "They'll lose their pricing power once those hedges run out" are not looking at the bigger picture.

Just a thought...

Exactly. Its funny to watch the analysts and pilots marching in lockstep on this topic. So according to the "SWA is doomed when their hedges run out" crowd, its actually better to have never been so incredibly well hedged, because when those awesome hedges expire you're somehow screwed.

SWA was phenomenally well hedged. They made some massive profits. Now they are hedged at or slightly above average (still a nice ammount of 50/bbl hedges) and still have a very low cost product from top to bottom. Pilot pay is high, but so is pilot productivity.

So to some it would have been better if SWA never made massive profits for the last few years and insiead just made small profits. I disagree with that line of reasoning. If you're making steady but modest profits, then you can have 4 or 5 VERY strong years and bank it (stock buybacks, debt reduction, cash stockpiling, internal investment, etc) and then return to modest profits, then IMO you are better off than you were.

Of course when SWA has to start paying for their 73's at the 50 year mark (coupled with when they are out of warranty), then they are really screwed! :laugh:

 

[General Lee]

FWIW.... General... I always get a chuckle out of your posts! The SWA guys as a group are absolutely scared to death to leave the CONUS... end of story.

Their fear is disguised as bravado... how they love Amarillo... or don't want to be caught dead in Sydney (because they're to far from home???...)

Fact is... international flying (ETOPS/alternate/ China/polar considerations) does add an element they're no doubt unfamiliar with but it's not Voodoo magic like many of them speak of.)

International flying can be an absolute hoot (with a good crew, as anywhere) and is a great way to see the world and experience things you wouldn't otherwise stateside (pyramids, castles, pubs, cathedrals, etc... ad nauseum)

Personally, after having been privileged to visit over 80 countries/territories SO FAR... I wouldn't trade it for the world! I think I am blessed to have a much broader perspective on world events than some of my neighbors.

YMMV,

BBB

Some of these SWA guys are a bit uptight, but I can understand "luv" for one's company. That's great and dandy. But, when I bring up some actual FACTS (domestic flying only, multiple leg days, 25 min turns, one aircraft type, and the possibility of actually flying to LBB, MAF, AMA, or beautiful HRL) they become unglued. HOW DARE I SAY ANYTHING CORRECT ABOUT THEIR RELIGION/COMPANY. It is humerous. But, I also say good things---like the pay, the fun stews, and the management (for now). Even though I show some possitive things I like about their jobs, they actually go after me personally. Oh well, I can handle it. It is as if layovers in LBB/MAF/AMA/and HRL were their dirty little secrets...... And oh yeah, their leather jackets are corny.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Hey BBB I'm not at all afraid of foriegn countries. Matter of fact I was just in El Paso last night.

Gup

There you go! Some humor! Ahhhh yeah. You must have been an ex regional guy.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[GuppyWN]

And oh yeah, their leather jackets are corny.


Bye Bye--General Lee

A guy wearing a double breasted blazer calling my leather jacket corny? Now THAT'S classic.

Gup

p.s. Hey General can we call a truce on the Vienna vs. Midland already? It's a JOB, not a yardstick.

 

[StopNTSing]

Exactly. Its funny to watch the analysts and pilots marching in lockstep on this topic. So according to the "SWA is doomed when their hedges run out" crowd, its actually better to have never been so incredibly well hedged, because when those awesome hedges expire you're somehow screwed.

SWA was phenomenally well hedged. They made some massive profits. Now they are hedged at or slightly above average (still a nice ammount of 50/bbl hedges) and still have a very low cost product from top to bottom. Pilot pay is high, but so is pilot productivity.

So to some it would have been better if SWA never made massive profits for the last few years and insiead just made small profits. I disagree with that line of reasoning. If you're making steady but modest profits, then you can have 4 or 5 VERY strong years and bank it (stock buybacks, debt reduction, cash stockpiling, internal investment, etc) and then return to modest profits, then IMO you are better off than you were.

Of course when SWA has to start paying for their 73's at the 50 year mark (coupled with when they are out of warranty), then they are really screwed! :laugh:

Something else that is getting under-reported is the unsustainably low costs the Legacys are enjoying right now. Even with gutted labor contracts (that will only increase with time) and operations that seem held together with duct tape & bailing wire from all the staff cuts (that will have to be replaced to improve service), they STILL can't get their CASM in line with SWA. :beer:


P.S. Will you guys please STOP FEEDING THE TROLL...err...GENERAL! If we ignore him maybe he will finally go away. :smash:

 

[General Lee]

A guy wearing a double breasted blazer calling my leather jacket corny? Now THAT'S classic.

Gup

p.s. Hey General can we call a truce on the Vienna vs. Midland already? It's a JOB, not a yardstick.

Yeah, but the chicks dig our Russian Boat Commander uniforms. They swoon when they think we are going to CONQUER THE SKIES!! It looks professional, rather than James Dean-ish.

And, I would love to get off this topic, but anyone who slams me gets a retort. You know that is how I operate. Have a good night.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Something else that is getting under-reported is the unsustainably low costs the Legacys are enjoying right now. Even with gutted labor contracts (that will only increase with time) and operations that seem held together with duct tape & bailing wire from all the staff cuts (that will have to be replaced to improve service), they STILL can't get their CASM in line with SWA. :beer:


P.S. Will you guys please STOP FEEDING THE TROLL...err...GENERAL! If we ignore him maybe he will finally go away. :smash:

Finally you have broken the code!

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Dude]

My attraction to my SWA flying is quite simple. I am Lazy. DAL-HOU-HRL-HOU-DAL-LBB-DAL-AUS ain't nothing compared to dealing with customs. I don't want to do paperwork or try to read a menu that I cannot understand or deal with folks that speak funny. Give me LBB, AMA, OKC, anywhere in Texas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Oklahoma with an occasional ABQ turn and I'm a happy dude. Everywhere else the food is colorful, full of nutrients, expensive, and the folks talk weird and don't say ma'am or sir.

Of all of the cool cities that I have visited in my short career, here and abroad, I have found only one thing that matters to me. Do I enjoy what I am doing? All have been yes and Southwest I have just enjoyed more. The check is great too. For what it is worth, I went to Texas Tech in Lubbock, TX and the scenery and local talent is the best there is.

With regard to our outlook............I don't know. If I had to be on a sinking ship looking for shore I want Gary C. Kelly drivin' the boat.

 

[Big Beer Belly]

Hey BBB I'm not at all afraid of foriegn countries. Matter of fact I was just in El Paso last night.

Gup

Gup... you're one of the fun ones on here. You have a sense of humor and give 'em crap when it's due. Wish I could buy you a strange malted beverage in a foreign land. In the end we all want the same... bend our chicks over and "show 'em a glorious time"... followed by a little chest thumping and fermented beverage!

Mrs. BBB has never accused me of being a "complex" creature!

BBB

 

[AFcitrus]

At the risk of setting off a firestorm... here goes. I have heard recently from two reliable sources (one within AAI management and the other from a reputable Aviation media source) that there will be a signifigant shift in ownership of 717's over the next couple of years. That ownership shift is going to be in the form of a merger between AAI and either AA or SWA. I am told that AAI would fight an AA merger but would welcome a SWA merger. Having said that, how do you folks from SWA think an integration would go? Serious answers only please. If you can't contribute intelligently to the conversation (w/o flamebait), please keep your comments to yourself.

Thanks

 

[Big Beer Belly]

If you can't contribute intelligently to the conversation (w/o flamebait), please keep your comments to yourself.

Thanks

A nice subtle entrance into the conversation...

BBB

 

[328dude]

Genital in one...two...three....... Here, I'll save you the trouble buddy.
SWA will be doomed, you will rot in LBB,AMA,MAF and HRL. Your leather jackets are corny, and your pay will be no match for mother Delta.

Come over here and fly to Rome, Moscow and watch an autopilot for 12 hours while you share bunkbeds being served champagne. Our double breasted jackets are severe chick magnets (especially in Moscow) except for the occasional chick with Krueger flaps installed on her back. We got married anyway.

Oh yea, if we go into BK again, dude, you'll make like 170,000 dollars to fund whatever you want. The moeny just keeps rolling in this place. It's a gold mine.

Something like that..............

 

[jonjuan]

My attraction to my SWA flying is quite simple. I am Lazy. DAL-HOU-HRL-HOU-DAL-LBB-DAL-AUS ain't nothing compared to dealing with customs. I don't want to do paperwork or try to read a menu that I cannot understand or deal with folks that speak funny. Give me LBB, AMA, OKC, anywhere in Texas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Oklahoma with an occasional ABQ turn and I'm a happy dude. Everywhere else the food is colorful, full of nutrients, expensive, and the folks talk weird and don't say ma'am or sir.

And with the extra 5 days off a month, you can relax in ATL with the General's wife and your kiddos.....

 

[humuakalaka]

FWIW, here's what I predict:

SWA will go international on a small scale within the next five years. It wouldn't surprise me to see SWA eventually order a widebody aircraft to further their international expansion if the initial routes are successful.

SWA, Continental, and Boeing will announce the development and initial orders for the 737 follow-on. This will likely happen sometime in 2009-10 with initial deliveries occurring in the 2013-15 timeframe. This aircraft (797?) will be based on 787 technology but will improve upon it's efficiencies. This aircraft may feature a dual-aisle configuration to improve boarding times and passenger comfort.

SWA will implement wireless internet service sometime in the next 18 months.

SWA will make efforts to improve their revenues with expansion of their cargo operation. It seems like it would make sense to me to increase fleet utilization by flying cargo at night (red eyes).

Upgrade time will stretch to between 8 and 12 years depending on how bad the current and future dry spells are. Subtract 3-5 years if age 65 does not happen.

An AirTran merger may make sense. I'm not sure. It wouldn't surprise me if it did happen, but for some reason, I'm thinking it won't.

Here's what I recommend that I haven't heard talked about: MAKE IT A POINT TO HIRE ATTRACTIVE FLIGHT ATTENDANTS! Seriously. And put them in attractive uniforms. Really. As a guy, if I knew there was a good chance I would get to look at nice-looking flight attendants on a SWA flight vs a Brand X flight, I'd definitely be willing to pony up an extra $5 to $20 for the privilege.

 

[AA717driver]

Well, I commuted on SWA for 10 of my 15 or so years at TWA.

The SWA pilots, FA's and agents were always great and treated me like I worked there.

The Delta pilots acted like their $h!t didn't stink and wouldn't even acknowlege your presence on the rare occasion they opted to ride in the same hotel van as the riff-raff.

Gee, which company would I rather work for... TC

 

[mdf]

Here's what I recommend that I haven't heard talked about: MAKE IT A POINT TO HIRE ATTRACTIVE FLIGHT ATTENDANTS! Seriously. And put them in attractive uniforms. Really. As a guy, if I knew there was a good chance I would get to look at nice-looking flight attendants on a SWA flight vs a Brand X flight, I'd definitely be willing to pony up an extra $5 to $20 for the privilege.

I have been preaching this point on line for a couple of years. This would acomplish a few things:

-Increase revenue
-Attract more business travelers
-Take the spotlight off inflight entertainment
-Increase moral across the board

Is there any other management move that could achieve all that?

 

[Snaab]

http://www.aviationplanning.com/SouthwestResearch.pdf

That really spells it out, huh? Thanks for the link there. And thanks to everyone else that took time to bring up great points about SWA- there are indeed MANY great things about the LUV machine. To answer someone's earlier question, I'm definitely serious about working at SWA (esp. once I meet the PIC minimums); I'm not on here to just for an opinion poll because I'm unsure whether I want to work there.

And General Lee, thanks for your input, too. I don't so much care where overnights are. I don't think I'd always have the attention span for overseas flights all the time. I will concede Amsterdam is cooler than Lubbock or Omaha. Plus, I live right around the corner from BWI.

Later,
Snaab

 

[Whataburger]

Ah yes, ANC was great, again. I had some real Alaskan King Crab legs. Wow. Just got back from Trader Joe's and got some real Alaskan King Crab. 15 minutes from home, no jet lag, and work for a company that pilots drive 80mph to get to work and 40mph home.
And yes, Delta makes you pay for your hotel or pad after the first two weeks, way to hold up the bar. but then Delta pays for hotels at every hot spot in Europe, South America, Asia, and everywhere EXCEPT LBB, MAF, AMA, and HRL. If you want to see the world on someone else's dime, come to Delta. If you want the chance to see Midland or Lubbock, go to Southwest.

Have a great one 328 dude.

Bye Bye--General Lee

You got nothin' Genital Lee. Same rhetoric, no debating, and a complete panty waste.

 

[Tejas-Jet]

As someone who desperately wants to be a part of SWA one day, I'm inquiring about the current outlook of the airline and how they are positioning themselves to stay competitive and grow.

I was talking to a friend recently who ran into a SWA f/o, and my friend picked his brain about what's up there. Anyhow, some concerns the f/o mentioned were: upgrade time was going to grow considerably, deliveries were slowing down a lot in '08, and no one is sure what'll happen when the 737 production line shuts down.

I always take rumors, etc., with a grain of salt, but I was curious what take SWA pilots have on this. It won't keep me from wanting to work there at all, but I wanted your candid point of view- just trying to stay informed. Thanks a lot!

I think that mgmt is doing what they have to do to make sure the entity not only survives...but thrives...thats a good thing.

This is not the first time that SWA has slowed growth...or offered early outs in our history. In fact, I do remember a time when SWA actually stopped growth altogether...but not for long.

What I like about this place is the culture of taking care of the employees. I see examples of that regularly. While past performance is no guarantee of future gains, one must look at the history of this place...including the management team. All "home grown". Herb is stepping down due to his confidence in how Gary is doing things. Notice there has only been one CEO in SWA's history who came from another airline....he didn't last long and left SWA to take the helm at the original Braniff.

Bottom line...the company is doing what they have to do without taking it from the employees ( as they have stated). In my opinion...why say it if you don't mean it...right? At other companies...they would be going after the employees and their benefits as a business strategy...we've seen it before.

After wasting many years at a legacy airline, I kick myself for not coming here sooner. I LUV it here...yes, even the LBB, MAF, HRL and AMA layovers...to me flying an airplane is flying an airplane is flying an airplane....other companies have the same type airplanes...but can't match the financial numbers that SWA has ( =security), nor the pilot productivity (=company/SWAPA no longer want to talk PBS at the table), nor the employee loyalty that we enjoy here...because that loyalty is a 2 way street at SWA.

 

[The Victors]

FWIW, here's what I predict:

SWA will go international on a small scale within the next five years. It wouldn't surprise me to see SWA eventually order a widebody aircraft to further their international expansion if the initial routes are successful.

SWA, Continental, and Boeing will announce the development and initial orders for the 737 follow-on. This will likely happen sometime in 2009-10 with initial deliveries occurring in the 2013-15 timeframe. This aircraft (797?) will be based on 787 technology but will improve upon it's efficiencies. This aircraft may feature a dual-aisle configuration to improve boarding times and passenger comfort.

SWA will implement wireless internet service sometime in the next 18 months.

SWA will make efforts to improve their revenues with expansion of their cargo operation. It seems like it would make sense to me to increase fleet utilization by flying cargo at night (red eyes).

Upgrade time will stretch to between 8 and 12 years depending on how bad the current and future dry spells are. Subtract 3-5 years if age 65 does not happen.

An AirTran merger may make sense. I'm not sure. It wouldn't surprise me if it did happen, but for some reason, I'm thinking it won't.

Here's what I recommend that I haven't heard talked about: MAKE IT A POINT TO HIRE ATTRACTIVE FLIGHT ATTENDANTS! Seriously. And put them in attractive uniforms. Really. As a guy, if I knew there was a good chance I would get to look at nice-looking flight attendants on a SWA flight vs a Brand X flight, I'd definitely be willing to pony up an extra $5 to $20 for the privilege.

I think they have been hiring more "old bags" lately in the hopes that it'll make contract negotations go more smoothly in the future.

 

[Heavy Set]

You got nothin' Genital Lee. Same rhetoric, no debating, and a complete panty waste.

Seems like he is the one providing facts, and you can't seem to debate him. Can you deny what he says about the routes, the turn times, the multiple leg days, or even the single aircraft type? Some people don't like those things. Let the personal attacks begin...

 

[CF34-3B1]

, the turn times,

I try to stay out of the pi$$ing matches on here, but this is one argument I've never understood.

You guys keep bringing up our 20 min turns and saying they're a negative.

Please explain how doing longer turns is a positive.

You don't get paid for turns.

The airplane doesn't generate revenue for the company.

Long turn times are a waste of time, plain and simple.

 

[CF34-3B1]

At the risk of setting off a firestorm... here goes. I have heard recently from two reliable sources (one within AAI management and the other from a reputable Aviation media source) that there will be a signifigant shift in ownership of 717's over the next couple of years. That ownership shift is going to be in the form of a merger between AAI and either AA or SWA. I am told that AAI would fight an AA merger but would welcome a SWA merger. Having said that, how do you folks from SWA think an integration would go? Serious answers only please. If you can't contribute intelligently to the conversation (w/o flamebait), please keep your comments to yourself.

Thanks

I think a SWA/AAI merger makes sense.

As long as I never ever, EVER have to go back to ATL.

 

[canyonblue]

Seems like he is the one providing facts, and you can't seem to debate him. Can you deny what he says about the routes, the turn times, the multiple leg days, or even the single aircraft type? Some people don't like those things. Let the personal attacks begin...

(Waiting for your other usernames to chime in next)

Wasn't too long.:laugh:

 

[canyonblue]

You guys keep bringing up our 20 min turns and saying they're a negative.

It's actually one guy, General Lee. He has a bad case of ADD and keeps forgetting he already responded.

 

[klr1395]

At the risk of setting off a firestorm... here goes. I have heard recently from two reliable sources (one within AAI management and the other from a reputable Aviation media source) that there will be a signifigant shift in ownership of 717's over the next couple of years. That ownership shift is going to be in the form of a merger between AAI and either AA or SWA. I am told that AAI would fight an AA merger but would welcome a SWA merger. Having said that, how do you folks from SWA think an integration would go? Serious answers only please. If you can't contribute intelligently to the conversation (w/o flamebait), please keep your comments to yourself.

Thanks

I think one only needs to look at the Morris (Dec 31, 1993) and Muse Air (June 25, 1985) acquisitions to see how they treat people. I think they make an honest to goodness effort to screw as few as possible, BUT make no mistake about it, they will take care of the pilots on their own seniority list first when it comes down to it. Cheers, klr