OK, SO who's next...

[bri5150]

HA/VX also makes sense. Adding HA to our route map actually makes ours make more sense. There are already swapped executives, and I think there are ties between the two boards as well. To all that, add that Branson wants Virgin Pacific...we'll see.

 

[ImbracableCrunk]

AS doesn't want to get married. We're slutty and we like it that way

 

[fam62c]

SWA has already shown that they can rid themselves of non-compatible Airplanes if they need to as illustrated by the recent deal with Delta. I'm sure a similar deal could be reached with another Airline based in Ft. Worth with a new CEO that LUV's Airbus jets to take some unwanted Airbusses off of SWA's hands. As luck would have it, they have a lot of 737's that could be used to trade with SWA. Hey that new Airline even flies E-190's. I guess what I'm saying is not to base a deal being done or not based on Fleet Comonaility, because in this industry you just never know.

LUV and JB would be a good route fit and give SW presence in the NE, however, after their experience with AT I don't think they will be in a hurry to go through that again anytime soon.

I've always wondered why they didn't buy JB instead of AT in the first place.......great Caribbean system, JFK and Boston (huge prizes) and no unions to deal with in the transition on the JB side. The fleet issue would have been a mess but not an insurmountable problem to fix over time. I think SW would have netted more value out of JB than AT in the long run. I would be very surprised if the go after JB or anybody else anytime soon but anything is possible.

SW would need to have some serious discussions with their own unions because JB would probably be a very long integration with no fleet types in common. In the end I doubt the SW unions would grant the type of flexibility necessary to allow a JB/SW deal to ever happen.

I honestly don't see where SW goes from here, they don't have any growth plans I don't see any obvious expansion opportunities for them that aren't already taken. I don't see the widebody, international thing ever happening for SW; there are too many other players firmly entrenched and SW would have no advantage playing in that ballpark.

 

[nwaf16dude]

DL is making some big bets in Seattle that heavily depend on feed from AS. Sure, DL has (or could quickly have) the aircraft capacity to replace that feed if we had too, but gate space then becomes the big limiter. It would be very expensive to replace or compete with AS in SEA. I'm sure DL is happy with the current arrangement, so I wouldn't expect us to make a move on AS unless someone else puts them into play.

 

[igneousy2]

HA/VX also makes sense. Adding HA to our route map actually makes ours make more sense. There are already swapped executives, and I think there are ties between the two boards as well. To all that, add that Branson wants Virgin Pacific...we'll see.

VX is bleeding money...HA is profitable but not by a lot. I think if the two combined they would both drown.

 

[AK737FO]

Good one!

AS doesn't want to get married. We're slutty and we like it that way

Now that's funny right there...

There are girls who have been around the block and then there are tour guides...

 

[ExpWayVis31]

I'll go with what this guy says. Their is nothing left out there that really fits. AK, HA, JB and SWA all have their own niches and unique situations. I'm going with the consolidation is over (of course I remember predicting that the airline industry was bound to be a lot less unstable now than it had been.....that was in 2000)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100450010?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

I think there will be ferther consolidation. As with LUV and AT it was strictly a merger to eliminate a competitor.

Now with the Big 3 being even bigger than they were in the past who is ever left will have a hard time competing because the Big 3 will eventually go after the nitch markets that have been enjoyed by the nitch carriers..

I see competition increasing epically on the all important East Coast. B6 look out.

Will be interesting to see if the new AA returns to JFK to Caribbean flying.

 

[Ky.BrownBourbn]

The big fish are out of the pond, the smaller exotic ones are next.

And if you keep telling yourself that "our "Niche market" will be safe", you're gonna be in for a rude awakening. Market share is market share!

KBB

 

[skidbuggy]

Whom ever gets bought next will most likely not get integrated, only parted out to make it look legal in the eyes of the government. Dark skies ahead for the little and the boutique carriers.

 

[B6Busdriver]

Not a chance in hell due to CAL's EWR presence. Same goes for DAL.

SWA or AA.

The government let DL take on the Us slots in LGA. DL is the biggest carrier at both airports. If I am UAL I point right to DL and cry foul on any attempt to stop a transaction.

 

[ExpWayVis31]

The government let DL take on the Us slots in LGA. DL is the biggest carrier at both airports. If I am UAL I point right to DL and cry foul on any attempt to stop a transaction.

When DL and LCC did that slot swap last year Nobody cried fowl, not AA not UAL.

It is my belief that that there is a plan in place for ferther mergers or slot swaps we just don't know about it yet.

 

[Flyer1015]

B6 and VX, new name Virgin Blue

 

[HAL]

Whom ever gets bought next will most likely not get integrated, only parted out to make it look legal in the eyes of the government. Dark skies ahead for the little and the boutique carriers.

Obviously you know nothing about merger law, and even less about how the smaller airlines operate & make profits.

HAL

 

[B6Busdriver]

When DL and LCC did that slot swap last year Nobody cried fowl, not AA not UAL.

It is my belief that that there is a plan in place for ferther mergers or slot swaps we just don't know about it yet.

It doesn't really matter who cries fowl as long as the DOJ is happy.

 

[scoreboardII]

AA HAL next as the news is reporting the new mega carrier is deficient in Asia and will need to focus in that area. Nothing easier than to nab HAL and finish the puzzle.

sWa can't compete in that bidding war. Swa will probably go for Jblue, securing the East coast, and then will go to code share to bring the international market to the swa domestic market.

 

[Av8rPHX]

Longshot but my money is on F9/AS

 

[Scrapdog]

UAL and the USAF

 

[Flyby1206]

B6 and VX, new name Virgin Blue

I'd like to see that purely from an integration standpoint. Fleet, route, onboard product (JB is moving towards VX already).

The tough question would be if the combined entity would have enough power to really compete on the west coast and overcome the problems VX is facing now.

The west coast market is so fragmented and needs to be fixed.

Again my predictions:

DL+AS (within the next 1-3yrs)
B6+VX (2-5 years)
HA+UA(3-6 years)
AA+(B6+VX) [probably 5-8years]

 

[Dan Roman]

Obviously you know nothing about merger law, and even less about how the smaller airlines operate & make profits.

HAL

That's for sure. Seems he knows even less about Hawaiian. Any business transaction concerning them would be shot down if it had the potential of undermining what HA already has planned for the State. The possibility of someone buying AK for parts is equally ridiculous.

 

[General Lee]

That's for sure. Seems he knows even less about Hawaiian. Any business transaction concerning them would be shot down if it had the potential of undermining what HA already has planned for the State. The possibility of someone buying AK for parts is equally ridiculous.

Ah, I don't know about that. Now that Inowye is gone, there is less political clout in DC, and that is where it would be decided. Money talks, and political clout via lobbyists influence people. I read once that "a possible" ) ) lobbyist for a certain Southern Airline is Trent Lott, former senior Senator from Mississippi. Do you think he knows anyone in the current Congress? I bet he does. Lott told Parker when he ran the Senate Aviation Committee at the hearing about a USAir takeover of DL during the BK that "looks like the Southern Belle doesn't want a dance partner", and at that point supposedly John McCain walked out of the hearing, leaving Parker (both from AZ) sitting there. Lott would be an asset if he lobbied for a "certain" airline.

And, I think the HAL/DL merger might work. Same fleet, and extra Hawaii routes that DL doesn't currently do. Just a guess, but I can see it happening. You never know.


Bye Bye---General Lee