OK, SO who's next...

[Ky.BrownBourbn]

Now that the AMR/LCC thing is gonna happen, WHo's next? We all know that there is gonna be more consolidation. What does everyone think?

KBB

 

[Tripower455]

I've heard that Air Tran is considering buying Jet Blue......

 

[Saluki Dawg]

WN/B6 after we wrap up the FL integration.

 

[fracpt]

man i hope you are wrong sluki

 

[imacdog]

Pretty soon it'll be really easy to keep track of your application to the one airline remaining in the country.

 

[Dan Roman]

I'll go with what this guy says. Their is nothing left out there that really fits. AK, HA, JB and SWA all have their own niches and unique situations. I'm going with the consolidation is over (of course I remember predicting that the airline industry was bound to be a lot less unstable now than it had been.....that was in 2000)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100450010?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

 

[jonjuan]

My guess is SWA/ALK or DAL/ALK or DAL/HA.

 

[race#53]

UAL and Jet Blue

 

[i fly boxes]

Spirit and frontier that one still fits

 

[humveedriver]

FedEx and UPS

 

[GoodTimes]

Let's see….AA has a void in the Asia/Pacific region. Hawaiian is expanding in said region. Ex-CEO of one is now running the other.

Never say never.

Niche scmitche. If it makes sense to Wall Street it'll happen.

 

[C-150ETOPS]

AA, USPS and the IRS

Satan himself would have moral qualms as to the treatment of all it's employees and customers.

 

[C-150ETOPS]

UAL and Jet Blue

Not a chance in hell due to CAL's EWR presence. Same goes for DAL.

SWA or AA.

 

[N1atEcon]

Only a few ugly girls left with no dance partner.

 

[Ex737Driver]

My guess is SWA/ALK or DAL/ALK or DAL/HA.

SWA/ALK - SWA gets nothing out of it they don't already have

DAL/ALK - Keeps UAL or AMR from getting it but still nothing that they don't already have or code share with.

DAL/HA - Possibly but DAL already has a large presence in the Pacific from NWA.

SWA/HA - Gives SWA the far east and with AAI they have the carrib and central america.

 

[DUBLINFLYER]

There is always SWA/Sun Country (same planes more vacation spots out of existing SWA cities and Anchorage)

 

[General Lee]

DL/AK, DL/HA, DL/VA. I don't think a certain CEO wants to be trailing a couple of others. It could be all 3 of the above. Or, it could be none. AK is great where it is now with DL, but if someone tried to take away the LA/SEA feed, it might be a target. HA keeps expanding to Japan (Sendai announced today), and that may make it a valuable target. I know Dan says the Locals won't allow it, but you never know. Now that Inoywe is gone, it might be easier in DC. And VA could be cheap, Branson now is friendly with a certain management, it has same type planes, could needle UAL in SFO, and again would be cheap.


I can also see Frontier, JetBlue, Spirit, and VA doing combinations. I don't see SWA with anyone other than maybe Sun Country, just because they have the same planes and they could dig at DL more via the Humphries terminal at MSP.

All just a guess.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Saluki Dawg]

SWA has already shown that they can rid themselves of non-compatible Airplanes if they need to as illustrated by the recent deal with Delta. I'm sure a similar deal could be reached with another Airline based in Ft. Worth with a new CEO that LUV's Airbus jets to take some unwanted Airbusses off of SWA's hands. As luck would have it, they have a lot of 737's that could be used to trade with SWA. Hey that new Airline even flies E-190's. I guess what I'm saying is not to base a deal being done or not based on Fleet Comonaility, because in this industry you just never know.

 

[jmreii]

I'll go with what this guy says. Their is nothing left out there that really fits. AK, HA, JB and SWA all have their own niches and unique situations. I'm going with the consolidation is over (of course I remember predicting that the airline industry was bound to be a lot less unstable now than it had been.....that was in 2000)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100450010?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

The carriers you have listed typically do well in customer satisfaction. I would gladly buy a ticket on any of these carriers because its no need to hold your nose.

 

[igneousy2]

I think JB coming into play by one of the big 3 is a possibility due to their NorthEast US route system which is the bread & butter of the US domestic route structure for the network carriers. I think it's a slim chance, but of the remaing players, I think this is the possibility.

I think the current scraps are too small to be worth the effort...especially HA and AS. If DAL, UAL, USAA wanted the west coast/Hawaii market...they would have it. DAL already bought Alaska Airlines...back then it was called Western Airlines. They took all that lift and moved it out East. American already bought Alaska Airlines TWICE, the first time it was called Air Cal, the 2nd time it was called Reno Air. They took all that lift and moved it out East to. If DAL, AA, or UAL were to buy AS, they would do the same. DAL, USAA, UAL all have more 737's then AS has, buying AS would hardly budge the needle for any of them. There are certain expenses that do not scale well when merging airlines and I quite frankly don't believe that AS and HA are big enough to make it worthwhile. HA is 1/4 to 1/3 the size of AS depending on what you are counting, they REALLY don't budge the needle. A combined HA/AS/JB would still be only 1/2 as big as any of the big 3 airlines.

I think what is more likely then any of the above is some consolidation on the 2nd tier. I'm thinking like a HA/JB or AS/JB or AS/HA type scenario is the most likely next domino to fall. Once we get some consolidation on the 2nd tier, only then does that combined airline become a target for one of the big 3.

A JB/AS/HA merger would create a pretty nice looking route map, and with all 3 making money, you gotta think the combined group would continue to do so. Take all the HA W/B's operating on the West Coast, replace them with Alaska NG's and new HA NEO's, and put the WB's on the East Coast flying to deep Europe with some MAX's and/or NEO's flying to "Near Europe" and the route map for the new Blue Hawaii Alaska Air is starting to look a little impressive.